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My Picks for 2014
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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madebe wrote:The optimist wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play.
Phase Two Breakdown
CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%)
Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09%
Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1%
Aggregate Return of phase two
(127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18
193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18
52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI
From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year.
Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit
193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18
93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI
TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI
NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends.
#Happy Investing 2014#  Keep it up. You are doing good and we are learning alot. Thanks for making me jump into Longhorn at 15.5 and exciting after barely a month at a healthy price of 27. It was the easiest money i have picked recently.... i could do with another GEM! The Investment Strategy has held perfectly in the ten months of play. I anticipate the market to start dipping or trading sideways next year. In case it shows signs of tanking, I will have to liquidate everything and watch from the sides as I await to employ stockmaster's dividend yield strategy...that one works well in a bear market and for an investor with a long horizon. Until then, am really having thoughts about Kenya Re...the only turn off being a business partner with GoK,,,it never gets worse A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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The index has risen about 3% since January. This means that it was extremely hard to make any money with stocks this year if the index gain is to go by. With a gain of 93% (net around 90% due to commissions) for 10.5 months, this means that my portfolio has outperformed the index by a factor of 30. I intend to continue using the strategy going forward since it has proved very profitable.I will update my next move in a week or two. I am seriously considering Kenya Re but I have not yet decided whether to pull the trigger. The counter is very discounted and the only problem is the large government shareholding. With an initial capital of Ksh 500,000 and a profit of around Ksh 450,000...I may as well approach some of the real estate gurus soon if all goes well. #Happy Hunting# A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:madebe wrote:The optimist wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play.
Phase Two Breakdown
CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%)
Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09%
Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1%
Aggregate Return of phase two
(127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18
193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18
52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI
From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year.
Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit
193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18
93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI
TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI
NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends.
#Happy Investing 2014# Keep it up. You are doing good and we are learning alot. Thanks for making me jump into Longhorn at 15.5 and exciting after barely a month at a healthy price of 27. It was the easiest money i have picked recently.... i could do with another GEM! The Investment Strategy has held perfectly in the ten months of play. I anticipate the market to start dipping or trading sideways next year. In case it shows signs of tanking, I will have to liquidate everything and watch from the sides as I await to employ stockmaster's dividend yield strategy...that one works well in a bear market and for an investor with a long horizon. Until then, am really having thoughts about Kenya Re...the only turn off being a business partner with GoK,,,it never gets worse You are young, invest for the long term Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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END OF YEAR REPORT The prices havent changed much since my last update. Current prices are CFC Insurance= 23 and CFC Stanbic = 124. Currently, these are the only counters in my portfolio. My aggregate gain for the year has been a gross profit of 93% return on investment. This does not include CFC Stanbic dividends which are negligible. The year long journey has been challenging and educative too. Going forward, I expect the market to trade sideways and opportunities to be minimal. I will therefore seek to avoid the stock market in 2015 as I await bargains in 2016/2017. I believe there are better opportunities elsewhere. I wish you all the best and Happy New Year wazuans!!! S.Mutaga III wrote:It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play.
Phase Two Breakdown
CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%)
Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09%
Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1%
Aggregate Return of phase two
(127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18
193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18
52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI
From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year.
Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit
193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18
93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI
TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI
NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends.
#Happy Investing 2014# A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/21/2012 Posts: 1,739
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@S.Mutaga. What are your bets for 015? Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God..
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/13/2014 Posts: 398 Location: Denmark
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S.Mutaga III wrote:END OF YEAR REPORT The prices havent changed much since my last update. Current prices are CFC Insurance= 23 and CFC Stanbic = 124. Currently, these are the only counters in my portfolio. My aggregate gain for the year has been a gross profit of 93% return on investment. This does not include CFC Stanbic dividends which are negligible. The year long journey has been challenging and educative too. Going forward, I expect the market to trade sideways and opportunities to be minimal. I will therefore seek to avoid the stock market in 2015 as I await bargains in 2016/2017. I believe there are better opportunities elsewhere. I wish you all the best and Happy New Year wazuans!!! S.Mutaga III wrote:It is over ten months since this year-long journey began hence a good time to evaluate the picks and their performance. In the first phase which took roughly seven months, the aggregate return on investment was 40.93%. I then employed the power of compounding and reinvested all the funds in three picks for phase two. Since I could not give real figures, I assumed an arbitrary capital of Ksh 100,000 or thereabouts at the beginning of the year. Phase 1 could have made my figure Ksh 140,930. Ksh 140,930 would have then been used as capital for phase two which is currently in play.
Phase Two Breakdown
CFC Stanbic Bank BP = Ksh 130 Current = Ksh 124 ROI = (-4.62%)
Liberty Holdings BP = Ksh 17.9 Current= Ksh 22.75 ROI = 27.09%
Longhorn Publishers BP = Ksh 15.9 Sold = Ksh 28 ROI = 76.1%
Aggregate Return of phase two
(127.09/100*140,930*0.3)+(176.1/100*140930*0.4)+(95.38/100*140,930*0.3)= Ksh 193,329.18
193,329.18-140,930 = Ksh 52399.18
52,399.18/140,930*100 = 37.18% ROI
From the above, my second phase alone has seen a return of 37.18%. Now let us calculate the total return since the start of the year.
Current Portfolio value - Initial Capital = Return/profit
193,329.18 - 100,000 = Ksh 93,329.18
93,329.18/100,000*100 = 93.33% ROI
TOTAL RETURN SINCE JANUARY = 93.33% ROI
NB: I liquidated longhorn at Ksh 28 following the old saying about having a bird in hand being worth than two in the bush. It was also experiencing major resistance around 27,28. There are still two and a half months before the year ends.
#Happy Investing 2014# Could you also be kind enough to educate us on some of the better opportunities out there going forward.. Seeing is believing
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/9/2011 Posts: 730 Location: Nairobi
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S Mutaga thansk for a great education. our goals are best achieved indirectly
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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For 2015, I will just retain Liberty and CFC Stanbic because they are still paper gains. In 2015, as stated earlier, I will not play the market. Perhaps its time to venture into small time real estate. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Today I liquidated all my remaining counters purely due to my gut feeling. I know that a disciplined investor would not do that, but its time to call it a day. A 93% ROI in 2014 was worth the hustle. Total amount invested in January was 602,000. Any insights of how to purchase treasury bills, minimum amount invested etc? A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Today I liquidated all my remaining counters purely due to my gut feeling. I know that a disciplined investor would not do that, but its time to call it a day. A 93% ROI in 2014 was worth the hustle. Total amount invested in January was 602,000. Any insights of how to purchase treasury bills, minimum amount invested etc? How about a Forex Fixed Deposit A/C with a good interest rate? PS: If you get an attractive one, please let me know
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