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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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hisah
#851 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 6:18:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Interbank rate is misbehaving and I don't see CBK being able to push tbill rates below 5%. CBR will likely be left at 8.5%. Also that VAT bill will be an inflation booster and this should check MPC's intentions of lowering the CBR going forward as they keep an eye on KES spiking back to 90. At 88/$ CBK would intervene heavily to stall the $ rise to check off inflation as well as the current account deficit damage.

Quite tricky for now with oil price also spiking. Eurobond is the bazooka needed if things go elephant...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#852 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 9:12:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
Interbank rate is misbehaving and I don't see CBK being able to push tbill rates below 5%. CBR will likely be left at 8.5%. Also that VAT bill will be an inflation booster and this should check MPC's intentions of lowering the CBR going forward as they keep an eye on KES spiking back to 90. At 88/$ CBK would intervene heavily to stall the $ rise to check off inflation as well as the current account deficit damage.

Quite tricky for now with oil price also spiking. Eurobond is the bazooka needed if things go elephant...


Well said chief. ... ditto.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#853 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 10:21:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!
@SufficientlyP
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mwekez@ji
#854 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 10:56:04 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!


#Event to watch today ;-)
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mwekez@ji
#855 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 5:32:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!


Your forecast has been confirmed ;-)

MPC has held cbr rate at 8.5%
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#856 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 7:48:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mwekez@ji wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!


Your forecast has been confirmed ;-)

MPC has held cbr rate at 8.5%

The dollar strength and the volatility of oil prices halted any further rate slash.
Also saw the tbill rates bottomed out last week.
@SufficientlyP
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mwekez@ji
#857 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 7:43:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Rich Today wrote:

The Shilling was last trading at 86.903.

Recent Shilling weakness was in part a consequence of the Price of Crude oil trading at 14 month Highs. I think the Middle Eastern Geopolitical Premium is way too rich in the Price and that The Chance of Egypt-led Contagion is not as high as currently estimated in the Price. So I expect some respite in the Price of Oil and therefore of the Pressure on the Shilling.

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