Wazua
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Coronavirus
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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I have alerted you wazuans and the government, that there exists a sound body of knowledge that can be used to make the lives of ordinary Kenyans better during this time.
I do not support the lockdown that the government and some of us here seem so intent to have. But I can warn you that things won't be as easy as you think. These lockdowns have no success story, or any convincing evidence that they are worth following. China and the lockdown countries have to wait for a vaccine before going back to normal life. We expect a vaccine next year, for them first, then we can follow.
I also know that some African governments are likely to collapse in the event of social unrest, and Kenya may be one of them. Given the slowness to agree even with a curfew that has rendered many jobless and hungry, I don't expect a 3 week lockdown to last peacefully, and allow for effective virus control. Chaos will break lose and how will we cool things down?
It will be very irresponsible of us to take, or even contemplate such a path. I hope this day shall be remembered well enough: the day we decided to be fools and plunge into an abyss, despite all warning and advice.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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tom_boy wrote:tycho wrote:mpobiz wrote:tom_boy wrote:The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.
Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.
Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.
How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?
Herd immunity is the only way for our fragile African health systems and economies. Send all animals to pasture and prepare for the 15% fatalities. It's already a disaster . Let whoever who is willing to work or party do it while taking precautions. What I am proposing may be much safer. Freeze the virus, lower its energy level, usher it through the population. Wait for it to raise itself again, usher it again like we can do now. Then again and again. Till it habituates at an equilibrium. Then watch it over time. As I said, very few need to die from this virus. And the data that alma is insisting on also supports the ideas that some countries have very little fatalities! Why not us, and we can do it? @tycho, your idea is sexy but it is predicated on one very fatal flaw. It assumes that other regions do not have the virus already. Remember we do not have capability to do wide scale testing. So even those so called hotspots are just the known hotspots. Without testing, we do not know the situation in Nakuru, Eldoret, Kisumu, to name a few. Countries like Germany that have shown low mortality have done widescale testing on even asymptomatic guys thus the high denominator for a relatively small numerator of deaths, thus a low death rate. Overall data puts covid mortality at less than 2% of those infected. More than 50% suffer such minor symptoms, they do not seek treatment. The major problem of those advocating for Lockdown is that they have enough to eat and are driven by fear rather than rational thought. On a population wide basis, a disease with under 2% mortality can cause alot of deaths numerically if a large population is affected but statistically the risk of death to a single individual is pretty low. But ofcourse humans are risk averse creatures and psychologically the thought of loss is more painful than the pleasure of gain. Thus, people like @alma have had their brains frozen by the thought of 2% chance of dying that they do not see the 100% chance of people going hungry in the event of a lockdown. It's true that we don't know the spread. But all the same, we know that there are measures that will cut the spread. And that's what we should work with. I wanted @alma to see that I have no problem with a partial lockdown for operational or investigative purpose.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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tycho wrote:tom_boy wrote:tycho wrote:mpobiz wrote:tom_boy wrote:The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.
Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.
Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.
How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?
Herd immunity is the only way for our fragile African health systems and economies. Send all animals to pasture and prepare for the 15% fatalities. It's already a disaster . Let whoever who is willing to work or party do it while taking precautions. What I am proposing may be much safer. Freeze the virus, lower its energy level, usher it through the population. Wait for it to raise itself again, usher it again like we can do now. Then again and again. Till it habituates at an equilibrium. Then watch it over time. As I said, very few need to die from this virus. And the data that alma is insisting on also supports the ideas that some countries have very little fatalities! Why not us, and we can do it? @tycho, your idea is sexy but it is predicated on one very fatal flaw. It assumes that other regions do not have the virus already. Remember we do not have capability to do wide scale testing. So even those so called hotspots are just the known hotspots. Without testing, we do not know the situation in Nakuru, Eldoret, Kisumu, to name a few. Countries like Germany that have shown low mortality have done widescale testing on even asymptomatic guys thus the high denominator for a relatively small numerator of deaths, thus a low death rate. Overall data puts covid mortality at less than 2% of those infected. More than 50% suffer such minor symptoms, they do not seek treatment. The major problem of those advocating for Lockdown is that they have enough to eat and are driven by fear rather than rational thought. On a population wide basis, a disease with under 2% mortality can cause alot of deaths numerically if a large population is affected but statistically the risk of death to a single individual is pretty low. But ofcourse humans are risk averse creatures and psychologically the thought of loss is more painful than the pleasure of gain. Thus, people like @alma have had their brains frozen by the thought of 2% chance of dying that they do not see the 100% chance of people going hungry in the event of a lockdown. It's true that we don't know the spread. But all the same, we know that there are measures that will cut the spread. And that's what we should work with. I wanted @alma to see that I have no problem with a partial lockdown for operational or investigative purpose. Tycho, I tend to be more pragmatic. When this thread started, everyone had this interesting ideas. In the meatime, wuhan was locked down. We called it undemocratic. Singapore and South Korea went into deep public health overdrive. Test, catch isolate as quickly as possible. Hong Kong the same. In the meantime the rest of the world is still discussing. Those places are getting back to normal. Some like Singapore have forgotten they even have the virus. The population understood and worked with the gov't. You have been shown how to deal with it. however, now 2 months later, every day we spend equivocating is a day lost. And a day we can't get back. The numbers in Kenya are climbing and climbing fast. Boda boda guys are still not using ppe's. People are still going to tao to look for a job, yet businesses are closed. Others are going to shags. It is not time for wise sayings or ideas. Lock down now for a shorter period or lock down later for a longer more painful and tearful period. Unless this virus suddenly vanishes next week, bado hatujajua. And please when someone says that it only kills 2%, let them also volunteer to be among the 800k who might die. Number look nice until you put a face on it. This is simple. Kenyans must follow the current gov't guidelines. Or Wait for the inevitable lockdown Or Wait for a vaccine But pain is inevitable. Take the pill now or later. Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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tycho wrote:I have alerted you wazuans and the government, that there exists a sound body of knowledge that can be used to make the lives of ordinary Kenyans better during this time.
I do not support the lockdown that the government and some of us here seem so intent to have. But I can warn you that things won't be as easy as you think. These lockdowns have no success story, or any convincing evidence that they are worth following. China and the lockdown countries have to wait for a vaccine before going back to normal life. We expect a vaccine next year, for them first, then we can follow.
I also know that some African governments are likely to collapse in the event of social unrest, and Kenya may be one of them. Given the slowness to agree even with a curfew that has rendered many jobless and hungry, I don't expect a 3 week lockdown to last peacefully, and allow for effective virus control. Chaos will break lose and how will we cool things down?
It will be very irresponsible of us to take, or even contemplate such a path. I hope this day shall be remembered well enough: the day we decided to be fools and plunge into an abyss, despite all warning and advice.
The government is on high gear preaching to us that this thing is treatable and some people here still think that a total lockdown is possible without social repercussions worse than the virus? More than 70% of Nairobiand live on hand to mouth. Hanger pangs hit within 12 hrs. That's a small detail for whomever will order a lockdown. Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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US deaths +1000 in 24hrs "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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murchr wrote:US deaths +1000 in 24hrs  π₯π₯ Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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Bigchick wrote:murchr wrote:US deaths +1000 in 24hrs π₯π₯ Remember when I told you to expect 1000 deaths a day and you said I was prophet of doom. Pandemics must run their full course. It's like a boil it has to ripen before you can lance it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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wukan wrote:Bigchick wrote:murchr wrote:US deaths +1000 in 24hrs π₯π₯ Remember when I told you to expect 1000 deaths a day and you said I was prophet of doom. Pandemics must run their full course. It's like a boil it has to ripen before you can lance it. Wooi!Am shaken. Now I believe you and your ex. I pray we dont get there in π°πͺ.(You doomsday prophetπ₯) Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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If you can, make masks, distribute and educate users on its importance. Encourage the people to wear them. Talking here, as if hii ni bunge ingine ya maana, won't help. @AA, your mask material si mbaya sana. One mask from one 'breast'  can be distributed at 20/-. So I hope I can inspire many people to get them Otherwise, we have wasted a week.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,935
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Based on what is happening in Italy, Spain and US, China lied big time on their total death figures. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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