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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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hisah
#801 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 3:59:44 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. How long might the discount period last? And more discounts are coming, right?

The profit warnings highlight that the market leaks lower as the warnings are realized at FY announcement. The market is still trying to price in those losses or profit dips. 2016 will be about who survived the loss haircuts. Then a washout after the bad news shock to setup the bottom.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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snipermnoma
#802 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 1:05:13 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
mnandii wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Continuing from post 615 above.



This chart is similar to the long term one in post 615 but it is from www.investing.com. My aim here is to show the sub-divisions within blue wave [a]. The fall from 5499.64 is therefore blue wave ...[..b] and is analysed below.



This is the best interpretation I have for the fall from 5499.64 high and part of the reason I am skeptical that the fall is a full-blown bear. The pattern is distinctly a zigzag pattern (5-3-5).

Now, while it is possible that the move (5499.64 to 4404.72), our zigzag, may be the first leg of a leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3), the sharpness of the fall signifies otherwise. I am therefore convinced the fall is a zigzag wave ..[..b] and should eventually be fully retraced. Please note that zigzags can be single, double or triple.

The beauty with Elliott is that it is evidence-based. Thus, if price patterns would suggest a different scenario other than the rise to the 7000 mark be assured that I will be the first to jump onto that count. Sad For now though I will be looking for a small 5 wave move to slightly above 4906.07 to satisfy that this bullish scenario is indeed the case.

A little math:

Red wave (a) = {5499.64 - 4404.72} = 1094.92

We expect a Fibonacci relation between waves (a) and (c) of the zigzag.

1). If wave (c) is 0.618 X Wave (a) then our target for wave (c) becomes:

0.618 X 1094.92 = 676.66

Subtracting 676.66 from wave (b) high gives:

4906.07 - 676.66 = 4229.41 NB: This has been surpassed.

2). If wave (c) equals wave (a) then:

4906.07 - 1094.92 = 3811.15 NB: Quite likely.

3)If wave (c) is the next Fibonacci target of 1.618 X Wave (a) then:

1.618 X 1094.92 = 1771.58

The target in this case becomes:

4906.07 - 1771.58 = 3134.49 NB: Quite unlikely.

Summary:

I expect NSE 20 share Index to fall to about 3811 points then start a strong move up toward 4907s level.

Nice trading.



@mnandii The analysis is thorough and I was able to follow though to understand I probably need to go through the book (463 pages) plus practice what I learn, it might be a while. I have two questions.

1. The calculation of wave a, the figure I highlighted in blue (4404.72) should it not be 4744.66? In which case:
i) wave a = 754.98
ii) 0.618x level becomes 4439.49
iii) Equal level becomes 4151.09
iii) 1.618 level becomes 3684.51

2. Where do fundamentals feature in all this? Seems to me like those go right out the window!


Oh yeah! You are right. Apologies for the mistake.

On 2, pls pls read the book!!! I can't emphasize enough on that. The knowledge you will get out of it will be worth it. You will also notice that there are only about 100 pages dealing with Rules and Guidelines of Wave Formation that you will need to put most effort on. So, what is 100 pages between you and success???!!

Also google search 'Elliott + wave + educational + video + series'. Am sure you'll know what to do.

NB: Elliott waves determine what the fundamentals will be. Not the other way round as most people think.


Thanks @mnandii. I have been building my knowledge on Elliott waves.
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mnandii
#803 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 9:28:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Somebody help me. It seems the NSE people lack knowledge on keeping and disseminating data.

NSE 20 Share Index on 1st, Sept. 2015 (yesterday) close is?

NSE website shows : 4176.59

Bloomberg shows : 4153.21

Financial Times shows: 4600.45

investing.com also 4600.45

Which is which?
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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instinct
#804 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 10:05:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself
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mnandii
#805 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 10:52:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
instinct wrote:
Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself


Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Sad
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#806 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 10:59:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Be ready for the moves ahead. We have been talking about a bear market for over a year now. While our timing may not have been perfect, we were certainly 'sure' that one was right ahead. Only Elliott waves can help you in these junctures ladies and gentlemen!

NB: The above refers to the global markets. Strong down moves in NSE will come but, as my previous Elliott wave post suggests, we may have about two months of a bull-run. Pls try to follow the wave patterns. As Prechter says.....'Charts tell the TRUTH..'.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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instinct
#807 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 11:15:15 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
mnandii wrote:
instinct wrote:
Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself


Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Sad



Ur right.. The index yesterday according to my stockbroker report was 4153, down 23 points. Turnover was 365million
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mnandii
#808 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 11:16:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
instinct wrote:
mnandii wrote:
instinct wrote:
Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself


Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Sad



Ur right.. The index yesterday according to my stockbroker report was 4153, down 23 points. Turnover was 365million


Thanks.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#809 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2015 3:56:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price break below that level heads to 12 the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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snipermnoma
#810 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2015 4:29:06 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
mnandii wrote:
Somebody help me. It seems the NSE people lack knowledge on keeping and disseminating data.

NSE 20 Share Index on 1st, Sept. 2015 (yesterday) close is?

NSE website shows : 4176.59

Bloomberg shows : 4153.21

Financial Times shows: 4600.45

investing.com also 4600.45

Which is which?


mnandii wrote:
instinct wrote:
mnandii wrote:
instinct wrote:
Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself


Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Sad



Ur right.. The index yesterday according to my stockbroker report was 4153, down 23 points. Turnover was 365million


Thanks.


Yes Sep 1 close was 4153.21, and yes 4176.59 was Aug 31. It is quite surprising that an index can be misreported. 4600 is completely misleading!
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