Headache for CBK -
http://www.theeastafrica.../-/bql64dz/-/index.html The econ is still weak, what more did the analysts expect - nothing new in this article. BoP is badly positioned since 2011, lending rates still sky high, econ still on handbrake as per tax revenues etc. Liquidity is still tight in KE and it's election time! Liquidity & forex controls have put a heavy lid on the forex game. Otherwise this would be the game & not equities & bonds.
In the forex world it's futile to fight the CB. They can change the game rules anytime when things get 'elephant' aka desperado time. CBK is still in that corner, if threatened, out comes the bazooka. With tight liquidity you run out of ammo fast against the rogue CB. Your bets against the CB get smoked out in a flash. This is why I don't see the $ or forex game a sure bet at this point.
My target for the $ is 90 max. Don't see it going past that unless an outsize market event is triggered by the CB or bogus election turmoil. And even if such an event occurs (God forbid), the forex black market (for max gains) is no go zone if you don't know your way...
The sad thing is guys are hoping the $ spikes beyond 100 to get their $ bets fat gains, yet this will bomb out the same econ they depend on... Vicious cycle
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!