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Effective duration and Convexity of bonds
Scooby
#71 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 9:16:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
dkuyoh,

I assume you are referring to the fact that the maximum interest rate on the floating rate bond is 9.5% . Won't that be deemed to be a cap/ceiling on the interest rate? It wont be a good thing because its value would decline if the T-Bill rates goes past 6.5%.

The yields for existing bonds and interest rates for new tresury issues would definitely go up...the current yields are quite ridiculous!

FYI, the HF was offered at par. And given the fact that the market is illiquid to date, it will be hard for one to determine its interest rate volatility unless one uses as a proxy, the volatility of the seven year treasuries.




Scubidu
#72 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 9:52:37 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scooby. Kibaks is launching trading HF bond. Seven year treasuries going at about 8% (I think)...should I be interested in buying? Cos I have a feeling no one will be willing to sell to me...

@dkuyoh. How does one construct a bond index? This sounds interesting...
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
drake
#73 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 11:55:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
@ dkuyoh,

A bond index does [did?] exist courtesy African Alliance.

@Scubidu

http://www.standardandpo...p;assetID=1221186708589

You can get a wealth of information/ideas from reading up on the "Index Methodology" per index.

Here is a sample on U.S Treasuries [S&P/BGCantor]
http://www.standardandpo...;blobheadervalue3=UTF-8 [PDF]
dkuyoh
#74 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 10:40:18 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/2/2010
Posts: 13
@drake
and it flopped badly coz of the complexity involved. the thing with bonds in Kenya is that they arent traded as much as shares (most bondholders hold to maturity). Even with the ATS which makes trading more efficient only a relatively small number of bonds are traded in a day or week. some bonds have embedded options which makes them difficult to value, others are mature and we also have on the run issues so the index will have to be reconstituted regularly.

@ scooby ...good point.spot on. thats exactly what i said! If one can use the 7yr spot rates as a benchmark you can estimate the yield but you have to add a risk premium for volatility, credit risk, reinvestment risk etc. how will the value start to decline after crossing the 6.5% yield mark? coz the cap is at 9.5% explain
Scooby
#75 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 9:41:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
dkuyoh,

The 9.5% limit includes a 300 bps for credit risk. Hence, treasury bill rate needed to arrive at the limit is 6.5%.

Hope that clarifies what I was talking about... and I hope I didn't misread the prospectus.

Regards

Scooby
#76 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 10:20:52 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu wrote:
@scooby. Kibaks is launching trading HF bond. Seven year treasuries going at about 8% (I think)...should I be interested in buying? Cos I have a feeling no one will be willing to sell to me...

@dkuyoh. How does one construct a bond index? This sounds interesting...


Scubidu,

There is nothing you are loosing by trying, right? So, go ahead and take a chance...

And I'll let you know if I know someone who bought and is interested in selling their bond, or a portion of it.

Cheers
polymer1
#77 Posted : Saturday, November 13, 2010 12:21:40 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/22/2010
Posts: 16
Location: Westlands
Trading bonds in Kenya I believe is tough, market data is scanty, the yield curve doesn't have all points along the curve covered, the tendency of bondholders to be satisfied with the coupons and not capital gains due to bond prices, the list is endless and so are the opportunities for a smart player to make big money.
There is nothing like making money, you have to earn it.
Scubidu
#78 Posted : Saturday, November 13, 2010 12:38:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@polymer1. They need a way to bring smaller players into the market and not get screwed on pricing ... but i think market information will become more available (in time) with better investment.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
emlyn ngwiri
#79 Posted : Monday, November 15, 2010 12:29:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
active management strategies are less practised in kenya(valuation analysis , credit analysis or interest rate anticipation.this is due to the fact that tracking error is large due to the volatility in interest rates.also the general economic climate and demand fo bonds is low due to high inflation rates and slow global economic pace experienced now.

kenyans practice the more common buy and hold strategy that is easy to practice and minimizes tracking error
polymer1
#80 Posted : Monday, November 15, 2010 2:58:40 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/22/2010
Posts: 16
Location: Westlands
@scubidu They can bring in retail investors who will buy and hold as bond trading is predominantly a big pockets-specialised knowledge game everywhere in the world.
There is nothing like making money, you have to earn it.
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