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BRITAK Prospects
Kihangeri
#71 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 3:25:02 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 11/10/2010
Posts: 550
Location: Junction
Kausha wrote:
It's a pity the government in its own capacity and a few wealthy who coincidentally exert some considerable influence in government decided to use the securities exchange as a platform on which to CON wanjiku rather than a platform to DO business with Wanjiku on a win win situation.

It was very obvious that BRITAK was offered at a very steep premium in a similar way to Safcom. Pity is some of the things promised by Britak will never see the light of day making one wonder what work CMA does when reviewing IPO memoranda. I doubt any regulator in any developed market would have allowed Britak to list at 9.50. I opined in this forum and even shared with the Transaction advisor that it made sense for Wanjiku to spend her money on Kenol shares (on comparative price basis) which were retailing at 9.40 cum div and were about to pay 52 cts dividend at the IPO time than buy Britak which was forecasting a payout of 55cts in 2012 from 2011 profits.

Presuming Wanjiku 1 bought Britak at 9.50 whereas Wanjiku 2 bought Kenol and went back to her shamba, Wanjiku 2 has to date received a 5% price gain, 52cts divy from 2010 results, another 57cts interim divy and confirmation from Bw. Segman that results for 2011 are beyond forecasts and there will be a divy which will likely be higher than the interim, in total a 22% return in a very ugly year assuming final divy from 2011 full years is at least equal to interim.

On the other hand wanjiku 1 is 51% poorer with minimal hope of an upside besides a market rally. CMA would have saved Wanjiku 1 all this grief by interogating Britak's forecasts and insisting they price much lower (closer to their true intrinsic value). Other than Equity bank's entry price, CMA continues to thoroughly fail Wanjiku and I can't comprehend how they keep renewing Stella's job!


I like this kind of argument. Kausha, I also doubt stella's credibility. However, CMA has changed with time. Previous CMA was more of a Criminal Mob Authority than a markets authority as they did not protect Wanjiku and bent all the rules to protect the brokers and the broken.
By inference, the man is all that Mr Phantom is not: an untrustworthy radical, divisive, too many enemies, a dictator, and a persistent liar...
Gaitho dialogues.


Kausha
#72 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 3:27:01 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Manage their revenue and income forecasts to reasonable levels, remove the propaganda on real estate, show how Britak's valuation multiples compare to peer companies on the NSE and a few other comparable exchanges in Africa. Plainly showing the PE, PB multiples without showing how these compare with the rest of the industry in Kenya and elsewhere was insufficient.
youcan'tstopusnow
#73 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 3:27:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
And as much as you castigate the CMA, people should always take personal responsibility for their actions

Cde Monomotapa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#74 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 3:28:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Kihangeri wrote:
Kausha wrote:
It's a pity the government in its own capacity and a few wealthy who coincidentally exert some considerable influence in government decided to use the securities exchange as a platform on which to CON wanjiku rather than a platform to DO business with Wanjiku on a win win situation.

It was very obvious that BRITAK was offered at a very steep premium in a similar way to Safcom. Pity is some of the things promised by Britak will never see the light of day making one wonder what work CMA does when reviewing IPO memoranda. I doubt any regulator in any developed market would have allowed Britak to list at 9.50. I opined in this forum and even shared with the Transaction advisor that it made sense for Wanjiku to spend her money on Kenol shares (on comparative price basis) which were retailing at 9.40 cum div and were about to pay 52 cts dividend at the IPO time than buy Britak which was forecasting a payout of 55cts in 2012 from 2011 profits.

Presuming Wanjiku 1 bought Britak at 9.50 whereas Wanjiku 2 bought Kenol and went back to her shamba, Wanjiku 2 has to date received a 5% price gain, 52cts divy from 2010 results, another 57cts interim divy and confirmation from Bw. Segman that results for 2011 are beyond forecasts and there will be a divy which will likely be higher than the interim, in total a 22% return in a very ugly year assuming final divy from 2011 full years is at least equal to interim.

On the other hand wanjiku 1 is 51% poorer with minimal hope of an upside besides a market rally. CMA would have saved Wanjiku 1 all this grief by interogating Britak's forecasts and insisting they price much lower (closer to their true intrinsic value). Other than Equity bank's entry price, CMA continues to thoroughly fail Wanjiku and I can't comprehend how they keep renewing Stella's job!


I like this kind of argument. Kausha, I also doubt stella's credibility. However, CMA has changed with time. Previous CMA was more of a Criminal Mob Authority than a markets authority as they did not protect Wanjiku and bent all the rules to protect the brokers and the broken.

Kihangeri, hapo tunakubaliana...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#75 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 3:32:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Kausha wrote:
Manage their revenue and income forecasts to reasonable levels, remove the propaganda on real estate, show how Britak's valuation multiples compare to peer companies on the NSE and a few other comparable exchanges in Africa. Plainly showing the PE, PB multiples without showing how these compare with the rest of the industry in Kenya and elsewhere was insufficient.

That would be shooting themselves in the foot, you have to agree. How many NSE listed companies have done this before? Did Equity do that? (I don't know)

Shouldn't the investor do this for themselves and then determine if he/she is getting a raw deal? Otherewise, that would be tantamount to 'kuwekewa chakula kwa mdomo, kutafuniwa na kumezewa' = kufundishwa tabia mbaya! (Brokers - who you pay - can do this for you) Hakuna cha bure


GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#76 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 4:05:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
And as much as you castigate the CMA, people should always take personal responsibility for their actions

Cde Monomotapa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Cde Monomotapa
#77 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 5:17:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
MPC MAINTAINS CBR @18% www.centralbank.go.ke
Realtreaty
#78 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 5:30:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,389
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
What would you have Britak include in the prospectus which was no there?

Laughing out loudly Barbed wires and racer Nets!!!!Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Mainat
#79 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 5:53:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Kausha/Kihangeri, may I welcome you to Kenya. Kenya is blessed with healthy productive people (growing at 1million per year). Please help yourself to some of our chai.
Kenya has a CAPITALIST economy. This means I bring something to the market, you bring your money (shillings if possible unless you are from Somali) and we agree how much you'll pay for my something. Alternatively I put a marked price on my something and you have to decide whether its worth that price.

Karipu
Sehemu ndio nyumba
youcan'tstopusnow
#80 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 6:25:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Mainat wrote:
Kausha/Kihangeri, may I welcome you to Kenya. Kenya is blessed with healthy productive people (growing at 1million per year). Please help yourself to some of our chai.
Kenya has a CAPITALIST economy. This means I bring something to the market, you bring your money (shillings if possible unless you are from Somali) and we agree how much you'll pay for my something. Alternatively I put a marked price on my something and you have to decide whether its worth that price.

Karipu

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GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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