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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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kizee1 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:KES has FAR much better economic fundamentals than any Western ccy right now & in the coming 10yrs and more. Its weakening baffles me and I believe that error will be corrected soon. Awaiting to confirm my hunch tomorrow that CBK has been dumping USDs for the Yuan  cbk dumping usds? lol! heck they dont even have jpy in their basket! proff u dont even know wat ccys ur blotter contains Humble citizen. Which part of me saying I think we are reducing USDs to add the Yuan into the reserve basket didn't you get? As my Naija Governor counterpart recently said "U don't need a weatherman to tell u which way the wind is blowing." which simply means global economic dominance has shifted Eastward and China to be exact.thereafter he comitted to convert 10% of their USD 33B ccy reserves. Consequently, I too don't need an Oracle to show me that global economic fortunes are being re-arranged as we speak and SSA will be a net beneficiary and that China/the East has overtaken the West in FDI and trade with Africa thus, very logical to hold Yuans now.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:In default we will accept a new KES/USD normal and grow from there the same way we did at 63 then 83. Nevertheless, I firmly believe the label "developing country" is the best status in the world economy, now & going-forward. SSA baby!!  how can you be proud being called a developing country? Surely?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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the deal wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:In default we will accept a new KES/USD normal and grow from there the same way we did at 63 then 83. Nevertheless, I firmly believe the label "developing country" is the best status in the world economy, now & going-forward. SSA baby!! how can you be proud being called a developing country? Surely? Because it occurs to me that capital pursues returns which are best found in developing/under exploited sectors/countries which won't be found in the developed but troubled Western economies. That's why Google does more business in EMERGING economies and KFC is smarter than most Wazuans to invest in a frontier market like Kenya.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:the deal wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:In default we will accept a new KES/USD normal and grow from there the same way we did at 63 then 83. Nevertheless, I firmly believe the label "developing country" is the best status in the world economy, now & going-forward. SSA baby!! how can you be proud being called a developing country? Surely? Because it occurs to me that capital pursues returns which are best found in developing/under exploited sectors/countries which won't be found in the developed but troubled Western economies. That's why Google does more business in EMERGING economies and KFC is smarter than most Wazuans to invest in a frontier market like Kenya. LOL which part of SADC did you go to? KFC in Nam is 200 bob...so KFC in KE is just exploiting Kenyans and contributing to inflation? Well the west is drowning in debts but KE is headed that way, I think (not sure) debt to GDP for KE is above 50% and with weakening KES that figure is set to continue balooning...we can't be proud when inflation and the weaker KES is closing busineses and pushing our brothers and sisters into poverty what is the difference with the west?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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The difference is that most Westerners have access to electricity and we are still working R.E.P and that's room for growth.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Food inflation here is a short term shock cured by rains which are already showering. A debt/gdp ratio of over 90% is a cancer/terminal disease. Atleast we use loans to build infrastructure not pay social programs.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@deal no worries. I have no interests in Coconut Namibia.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@deal no worries. I have no interests in Coconut Namibia. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/9/2011 Posts: 11
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@Monomotapa you have nailed it today..I have been reading this blog as a form of 'entertainment' and to be honest I am impressed by the level of insight wazuans demonstrate,the only downside is that one gets the impression that Wazuans have a short-term/pessimistic view in almost every active thread.Go long on Kenya/Africa and start pricing in the future macro growth prospects once we skin this bear!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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msaliti7 wrote:@Monomotapa you have nailed it today..I have been reading this blog as a form of 'entertainment' and to be honest I am impressed by the level of insight wazuans demonstrate,the only downside is that one gets the impression that Wazuans have a short-term/pessimistic view in almost every active thread.Go long on Kenya/Africa and start pricing in the future macro growth prospects once we skin this bear! Thanks and U have it right on the short sightedness/pessimism. We need more long players on Wazua I expect u will be one. Karibu Wazua. Najivunia kuwa Mkenya/Mwaafrika.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Scubidu wrote:
@hisah. Why are you shorting KES? Speculating or is there something fundamental? If there's a fundamental reason then will the raising of cbr by say 400bps be adequate for you to unwind your position?
I think they let the chips fall over the last few weeks and you saw the effect on money markets. That can't be desirable. I agree with you on rising the cbr but not as sharply as most have called for.
When central planners are disorganized there is an opportunity for money to be made. High inflation from oil & lowering of the CBR was quite senseless a move. When I saw USDKES point to 90 on the charts, the trade was made. Alykhan still sees 100 - likely to be tested. Depending on how euroland deals with the default of Greece & others, that USDKES could fly to 120 as money piles on the dollar (short term). Back in Jan - Mar, CBK had a chance to hike rates, but decided on pep talk & soft hikes. Now they face global debt market forces. Too late for real action to be in full control. Look at the gok t-bill rates. Does that imply any confidence on the regulator? Money has no morals... And the scenario would have been worse if they had floated a eurobond. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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msaliti7 wrote:@Monomotapa you have nailed it today..I have been reading this blog as a form of 'entertainment' and to be honest I am impressed by the level of insight wazuans demonstrate,the only downside is that one gets the impression that Wazuans have a short-term/pessimistic view in almost every active thread.Go long on Kenya/Africa and start pricing in the future macro growth prospects once we skin this bear! Definitely we will be here for a looong time i.e. investing in KE. 1st world will slowdown for decades like the lost decades of Japan. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries. EMs are very 'risky' due to cannibals, diseases & wild animals roaming in the streets & grasslands as per 1st world thinking... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries. EMs are very 'risky' due to cannibals, diseases & wild animals roaming in the streets & grasslands as per 1st world thinking... hahaha..the realization to the contrary is coming soon and i'm patiently positioned to trap part of the avalanche Portfolio and FDI flows that will come into Frontier Markets of SSA. That way we'll re-hab ourselves from donor funding to a great extent!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries. EMs are very 'risky' due to cannibals, diseases & wild animals roaming in the streets & grasslands as per 1st world thinking... hahaha..the realization to the contrary is coming soon and i'm patiently positioned to trap part of the avalanche Portfolio and FDI flows that will come into Frontier Markets of SSA. That way we'll re-hab ourselves from donor funding to a great extent!! @hisah that is when the Nairobi International Financial Centre will realize its utility ;-)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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FUNKY wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/CBK+faces+tough+choices+in+bid+to+stabilise+shilling+stop+/-/539552/1235848/-/t9fpm4/-/index.html I urge the CBK to do all in its power to support domestic demand and economic activity as we have far more control over that than the feed-ins from abroad. Let's see.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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What a Great thread this is turning out to be. Me thinks MPCs decision not to hike the CBR earlier on in the year was a gamble they made expecting supply will increase and tame inflation. Well that never happened and now we have yeilds in excess of 10% while CBR is still at 6.25!!! Anyway, what's the latest from their (MPC) meeting today? BTW, a hike in CBR by more than 200 basis points will wipe away any gains made/to be made in Equities! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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the b in cbr shud stand for baseless
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