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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
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Angelica _ann
#1561 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 8:28:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,929
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2018, PBT figures in KES B:
EQTY 6.4 Actual 8.3
KCB 6.8 Actual 7.4
COOP 4.1 Actual 4.9
SCBK 2.8
DTB 2.7 Actual 2.7
BBK 2.3
I&M 1.7
STB 1.5 Actual 2.7
NIC 1.2 Actual 1.3
HFCK 0.18
NBK 0.14


Looks like no cooks at DTB!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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obiero
#1562 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 9:55:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,972
Location: nairobi
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2018, PBT figures in KES B:
EQTY 6.4 Actual 8.3
KCB 6.8 Actual 7.4
COOP 4.1 Actual 4.9
SCBK 2.8
DTB 2.7 Actual 2.7
BBK 2.3
I&M 1.7
STB 1.5 Actual 2.7
NIC 1.2 Actual 1.3
HFCK 0.18
NBK 0.14

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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VituVingiSana
#1563 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 9:56:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,265
Location: Nairobi
I see so many property developments in Nairobi & Mombasa but are they being sold or leased?
I wonder when those banks which have lent heavily to these (associated) sectors will have to bite the bullet.
Banks may need to fast-track providing (P&L) for these loans.

Plus proposed tax rates will be 5% higher for most banks.
Add the waste & malaise from the scam-a-week government.
Oil is at $78 = inflation
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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lochaz-index
#1564 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:05:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
All banks that have reported Q1 2018 have had a contraction in the loan book if you compare FY2017 and Q1 2018.

All that have reported thus far, have also reported increased profit against reduced provisions.. Then why exactly do we need to remove the rate cap?

Something does not quite sit right with these banks and their FY 2017 and Q1 2018 results. Almost all of them are showing massive reversals in LLP's. I am not aware of any major structural reset to result in such a scenario across all sectors as evidenced in the various banks' loan books that serve different market niches or did I miss something?

Secondly, weren't they supposed to already be easing into IFRS 9 via the expected loan loss model? What exactly is happening here?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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winmak
#1565 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:07:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
I see so many property developments in Nairobi & Mombasa but are they being sold or leased?
I wonder when those banks which have lent heavily to these (associated) sectors will have to bite the bullet.
Banks may need to fast-track providing (P&L) for these loans.

Plus proposed tax rates will be 5% higher for most banks.
Add the waste & malaise from the scam-a-week government.
Oil is at $78 = inflation


Do you think a time is coming when these property owners will cut their losses just to recover the construction costs and repay the loans?

Coz I visited some establishment in Kikambala called Sultan Palace, complete holiday homes with beachfront houses going for 80 million a 'piece'... And I was like, those who can afford that kind of cash are akina Waiguru/Kabura or they will sink the cash in more reasonable investments... (And these are not off plan, meaning that the completed houses need to be bought fast otherwise loans default risk rises)
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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lochaz-index
#1566 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:11:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
I see so many property developments in Nairobi & Mombasa but are they being sold or leased?
I wonder when those banks which have lent heavily to these (associated) sectors will have to bite the bullet.
Banks may need to fast-track providing (P&L) for these loans.

Plus proposed tax rates will be 5% higher for most banks.
Add the waste & malaise from the scam-a-week government.
Oil is at $78 = inflation

As always the govt is the biggest party pooper. Proposal to raise capital gains tax from 5% to 20% in an illiquid economy is an extremely greedy and desperate move. Would not be surprised if it is raised again next year in an attempt to balance the fiscal end.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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obiero
#1567 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 3:04:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,972
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2018, PBT figures in KES B:
EQTY 6.4 Actual 8.3
KCB 6.8 Actual 7.4
COOP 4.1 Actual 4.9
SCBK 2.8
DTB 2.7 Actual 2.7
BBK 2.3
I&M 1.7
STB 1.5 Actual 2.7
NIC 1.2 Actual 1.3
HFCK 0.18
NBK 0.14


Looks like no cooks at DTB!!!

Apparently. Luckily stability is starting to show on the financial figures

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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murchr
#1568 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 4:05:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Angelica _ann wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2018, PBT figures in KES B:
EQTY 6.4 Actual 8.3
KCB 6.8 Actual 7.4
COOP 4.1 Actual 4.9
SCBK 2.8
DTB 2.7 Actual 2.7
BBK 2.3
I&M 1.7
STB 1.5 Actual 2.7
NIC 1.2 Actual 1.3
HFCK 0.18
NBK 0.14


Looks like no cooks at DTB!!!


Am actually disappointed, they shouldn't be so predictable. NIC and DTB.

@Obiero, as we begin to export oil, what banks will have the lion share of the cake?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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obiero
#1569 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 4:14:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,972
Location: nairobi
murchr wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2018, PBT figures in KES B:
EQTY 6.4 Actual 8.3
KCB 6.8 Actual 7.4
COOP 4.1 Actual 4.9
SCBK 2.8
DTB 2.7 Actual 2.7
BBK 2.3
I&M 1.7
STB 1.5 Actual 2.7
NIC 1.2 Actual 1.3
HFCK 0.18
NBK 0.14


Looks like no cooks at DTB!!!


Am actually disappointed, they shouldn't be so predictable. NIC and DTB.

@Obiero, as we begin to export oil, what banks will have the lion share of the cake?

KCB, STANBIC and EQTY in that order

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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VituVingiSana
#1570 Posted : Saturday, May 26, 2018 12:25:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,265
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I see so many property developments in Nairobi & Mombasa but are they being sold or leased?
I wonder when those banks which have lent heavily to these (associated) sectors will have to bite the bullet.
Banks may need to fast-track providing (P&L) for these loans.

Plus proposed tax rates will be 5% higher for most banks.
Add the waste & malaise from the scam-a-week government.
Oil is at $78 = inflation

As always the govt is the biggest party pooper. Proposal to raise capital gains tax from 5% to 20% in an illiquid economy is an extremely greedy and desperate move. Would not be surprised if it is raised again next year in an attempt to balance the fiscal end.

Income Tax for firms with PBT over 500mn will increase from 30% to 35% [it may be progressive]
Capital gains from 5% to 20% is another huge hit for firms with significant "for sale" property portfolios.
Proposed VAT on fuel.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mulla
#1571 Posted : Saturday, May 26, 2018 9:17:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I see so many property developments in Nairobi & Mombasa but are they being sold or leased?
I wonder when those banks which have lent heavily to these (associated) sectors will have to bite the bullet.
Banks may need to fast-track providing (P&L) for these loans.

Plus proposed tax rates will be 5% higher for most banks.
Add the waste & malaise from the scam-a-week government.
Oil is at $78 = inflation

As always the govt is the biggest party pooper. Proposal to raise capital gains tax from 5% to 20% in an illiquid economy is an extremely greedy and desperate move. Would not be surprised if it is raised again next year in an attempt to balance the fiscal end.

Income Tax for firms with PBT over 500mn will increase from 30% to 35% [it may be progressive]
Capital gains from 5% to 20% is another huge hit for firms with significant "for sale" property portfolios.
Proposed VAT on fuel.

Talk about discouraging both local and international investors from growth and profits. Why make Kenya an undesirable investment destination ?
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Angelica _ann
#1572 Posted : Saturday, May 26, 2018 11:17:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,929
mulla wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I see so many property developments in Nairobi & Mombasa but are they being sold or leased?
I wonder when those banks which have lent heavily to these (associated) sectors will have to bite the bullet.
Banks may need to fast-track providing (P&L) for these loans.

Plus proposed tax rates will be 5% higher for most banks.
Add the waste & malaise from the scam-a-week government.
Oil is at $78 = inflation

As always the govt is the biggest party pooper. Proposal to raise capital gains tax from 5% to 20% in an illiquid economy is an extremely greedy and desperate move. Would not be surprised if it is raised again next year in an attempt to balance the fiscal end.

Income Tax for firms with PBT over 500mn will increase from 30% to 35% [it may be progressive]
Capital gains from 5% to 20% is another huge hit for firms with significant "for sale" property portfolios.
Proposed VAT on fuel.

Talk about discouraging both local and international investors from growth and profits. Why make Kenya an undesirable investment destination ?


Yet one of the pillars of tano tena is Manufacturingsmile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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obiero
#1573 Posted : Monday, May 28, 2018 7:05:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,972
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
mulla wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I see so many property developments in Nairobi & Mombasa but are they being sold or leased?
I wonder when those banks which have lent heavily to these (associated) sectors will have to bite the bullet.
Banks may need to fast-track providing (P&L) for these loans.

Plus proposed tax rates will be 5% higher for most banks.
Add the waste & malaise from the scam-a-week government.
Oil is at $78 = inflation

As always the govt is the biggest party pooper. Proposal to raise capital gains tax from 5% to 20% in an illiquid economy is an extremely greedy and desperate move. Would not be surprised if it is raised again next year in an attempt to balance the fiscal end.

Income Tax for firms with PBT over 500mn will increase from 30% to 35% [it may be progressive]
Capital gains from 5% to 20% is another huge hit for firms with significant "for sale" property portfolios.
Proposed VAT on fuel.

Talk about discouraging both local and international investors from growth and profits. Why make Kenya an undesirable investment destination ?


Yet one of the pillars of tano tena is Manufacturingsmile

Imagine

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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innovator
#1574 Posted : Monday, May 28, 2018 11:50:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/24/2010
Posts: 238
Location: nairobi
Which banks are they that handled NYS loot.
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obiero
#1575 Posted : Tuesday, May 29, 2018 12:52:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,972
Location: nairobi
@pesanane https://www.standardmedi...e-profit-down-to-sh1-84b

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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obiero
#1576 Posted : Tuesday, May 29, 2018 12:59:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,972
Location: nairobi
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2018, PBT figures in KES B:
EQTY 6.4 Actual 8.3
KCB 6.8 Actual 7.4
COOP 4.1 Actual 4.9
SCBK 2.8 Actual 2.7
DTB 2.7 Actual 2.7
BBK 2.3
I&M 1.7
STB 1.5 Actual 2.7
NIC 1.2 Actual 1.3
HFCK 0.18
NBK 0.14

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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VituVingiSana
#1577 Posted : Tuesday, May 29, 2018 5:13:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,265
Location: Nairobi
Will things get hot for some banks?
https://www.businessdail...85478-1mgllm/index.html
Which banks are involved with the NYS scam?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#1578 Posted : Tuesday, May 29, 2018 9:28:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,972
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Will things get hot for some banks?
https://www.businessdail...85478-1mgllm/index.html
Which banks are involved with the NYS scam?

Hot how.. It would be difficult for any Kenyan bank to have known of the scam. If payment has been received from IFMIS to the client bank account and the client presents an LPO along with invoice in support of works done.. The banks' work stops there! Hio ingine ni ya DPP na CID

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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whiteowl
#1579 Posted : Tuesday, May 29, 2018 11:35:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Will things get hot for some banks?
https://www.businessdail...85478-1mgllm/index.html
Which banks are involved with the NYS scam?

Hot how.. It would be difficult for any Kenyan bank to have known of the scam. If payment has been received from IFMIS to the client bank account and the client presents an LPO along with invoice in support of works done.. The banks' work stops there! Hio ingine ni ya DPP na CID


I agree this is not on banks.If you have supporting documents the transaction is supposed to be approved.If the said documents were issued after supplying air that's an issue for the criminal justice system to solve.
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Metch
#1580 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2018 6:51:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/22/2015
Posts: 224
Location: Mombasa, Kenya
whiteowl wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Will things get hot for some banks?
https://www.businessdail...85478-1mgllm/index.html
Which banks are involved with the NYS scam?

Hot how.. It would be difficult for any Kenyan bank to have known of the scam. If payment has been received from IFMIS to the client bank account and the client presents an LPO along with invoice in support of works done.. The banks' work stops there! Hio ingine ni ya DPP na CID


I agree this is not on banks.If you have supporting documents the transaction is supposed to be approved.If the said documents were issued after supplying air that's an issue for the criminal justice system to solve.


Banks are liable. They have a responsibility to report suspect transactions e.g if an account that barely transacts receives 10M from a govt institution and the money is withdrawn in cash within the hour (no large amounts declaration forms were signed).
And this happened repeatedly at the same bank!
We should be asking which banks. Transactions happened at Ridgeway Mall. We have Equity, Coop, Chase and StanChart there
Start!
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