Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
'Back to work' demand & broad base rate cuts (stimulus) are known credible factors. All else, is all else. Thank goodness for Hydro too.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2012 Posts: 1,461 Location: Ngong Forest
|
dunkang wrote:Ngong wrote:Check the rates at CBD Forex opposite Nation,they might be almost there! what are going rates there?  Always the highest, when in country l go there,last change they gave me @87.45 wonderful!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly. Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
|
hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
|
hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. I agree,that CA is putting us in a compromising situation. Personally I believe CBK is trying to work on imports but what I'm concerned with is the relationship of debt and the exchange rate.How do you see it? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/24/2013 Posts: 325
|
ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. I agree,that CA is putting us in a compromising situation. Personally I believe CBK is trying to work on imports but what I'm concerned with is the relationship of debt and the exchange rate.How do you see it? What's the bottom line my brothers? Last time this happened I speculated too much and lost. This time am biting my nails to death. I want to be on top of this.....trade now at $88 or give it another 2 months and see...
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
ChumsQuest wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. I agree,that CA is putting us in a compromising situation. Personally I believe CBK is trying to work on imports but what I'm concerned with is the relationship of debt and the exchange rate.How do you see it? What's the bottom line my brothers? Last time this happened I speculated too much and lost. This time am biting my nails to death. I want to be on top of this.....trade now at $88 or give it another 2 months and see... @chums - stop speculating. Understand the tea leaves involved in currency fundamentals - BoP, inflation, econ trends, CB funding rate - CBR etc. Then decide on the trade. 2011 was the KES slamdown party. I don't see that party now unless the election goes haywire. Max $ rate should be 90 since the econ is on recovery.
@chess - foreign debt interest would balloon if $ rate spiked wildly. CBK & treasury are aware of that. As @mainat stated, if treasury cant hold back the tide in comes IMF dollars. And that is a vicious cycle. However, with the expected mining boom this is not a big issue due to the mining windfall over the longterm. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
|
hisah wrote:
@chums - stop speculating. Understand the tea leaves involved in currency fundamentals - BoP, inflation, econ trends, CB funding rate - CBR etc. Then decide on the trade. 2011 was the KES slamdown party. I don't see that party now unless the election goes haywire. Max $ rate should be 90 since the econ is on recovery.
@chess - foreign debt interest would balloon if $ rate spiked wildly. CBK & treasury are aware of that. As @mainat stated, if treasury cant hold back the tide in comes IMF dollars. And that is a vicious cycle. However, with the expected mining boom this is not a big issue due to the mining windfall over the longterm.
Did you say max $ rate of 90? That would be like Christmas come early. May the gods of currencies save the KES and may Kenyans vote wisely and peacefully.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
mkeiyd wrote:hisah wrote:
@chums - stop speculating. Understand the tea leaves involved in currency fundamentals - BoP, inflation, econ trends, CB funding rate - CBR etc. Then decide on the trade. 2011 was the KES slamdown party. I don't see that party now unless the election goes haywire. Max $ rate should be 90 since the econ is on recovery.
@chess - foreign debt interest would balloon if $ rate spiked wildly. CBK & treasury are aware of that. As @mainat stated, if treasury cant hold back the tide in comes IMF dollars. And that is a vicious cycle. However, with the expected mining boom this is not a big issue due to the mining windfall over the longterm.
Did you say max $ rate of 90? That would be like Christmas come early. May the gods of currencies save the KES and may Kenyans vote wisely and peacefully. CB sold around $100m a few days I heard and markets are still tight. Not seeing the rate crossing 90 either unless there's election violence. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|