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NASA :Whats the game plan.
Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2009 Posts: 587
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FRM2011 wrote:
Today someone decided to tweak the numbers a bit and give Jubilee a best case scenario. A nightmare for us but this is a contest we need to be ready. So here we go.
Assumptions.
1. Uhuru will take Nairobi by 53%(He had 48% in 2013).
2. Kiambu will turnout 93% ( up from 91% in 2013).
3. Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri & Nyandarua will average 94% turnout.(2013-92%)
4. Meru will vote Uhuru 92% (2013 - 90%)
5. Kisii (120,000), Machakos (80,000), Mombasa(100,000).
Top ten for Uhuru would look like this.
Kiambu - 980K
Nairobi -910K
Nakuru - 680K
Meru - 560K
Muranga -540K
Nyeri - 410K
Kirinyaga - 310K
Nyandarua - 310K
Kericho - 290K
U.Gishu - 290K
This would result in an extremely close contest with no clear winner. A run-off would have to be done.
49.4%/ 48.8%
Nothing strange here @FRM2011. We have seen these statistics before. I can guarantee you one thing for sure...predicting the actions of masses during elections to precision accuracy in Kenya more than a week to election date is practically impossible. Dont be happy with those percentages and don't forget "kwona kimera ti kuria".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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Fyatu wrote:FRM2011 wrote:
Today someone decided to tweak the numbers a bit and give Jubilee a best case scenario. A nightmare for us but this is a contest we need to be ready. So here we go.
Assumptions.
1. Uhuru will take Nairobi by 53%(He had 48% in 2013).
2. Kiambu will turnout 93% ( up from 91% in 2013).
3. Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri & Nyandarua will average 94% turnout.(2013-92%)
4. Meru will vote Uhuru 92% (2013 - 90%)
5. Kisii (120,000), Machakos (80,000), Mombasa(100,000).
Top ten for Uhuru would look like this.
Kiambu - 980K
Nairobi -910K
Nakuru - 680K
Meru - 560K
Muranga -540K
Nyeri - 410K
Kirinyaga - 310K
Nyandarua - 310K
Kericho - 290K
U.Gishu - 290K
This would result in an extremely close contest with no clear winner. A run-off would have to be done.
49.4%/ 48.8%
Has IEBC produced the clean voter register?? O-joshua told us he won elections early in the year during the voter registration exercise,so whatever song you keep on singing we have already memorized it. Chapisha register latest hapa. Good observation. We have worked with the register as it is. Assumption here being the effect of the deleted names will be spread evenly across the divide. Nairobi will take the lion's share of the deleted names but luckily it votes 50/50.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,822 Location: Nakuru
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FRM2011 wrote:Fyatu wrote:FRM2011 wrote:
Today someone decided to tweak the numbers a bit and give Jubilee a best case scenario. A nightmare for us but this is a contest we need to be ready. So here we go.
Assumptions.
1. Uhuru will take Nairobi by 53%(He had 48% in 2013).
2. Kiambu will turnout 93% ( up from 91% in 2013).
3. Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri & Nyandarua will average 94% turnout.(2013-92%)
4. Meru will vote Uhuru 92% (2013 - 90%)
5. Kisii (120,000), Machakos (80,000), Mombasa(100,000).
Top ten for Uhuru would look like this.
Kiambu - 980K
Nairobi -910K
Nakuru - 680K
Meru - 560K
Muranga -540K
Nyeri - 410K
Kirinyaga - 310K
Nyandarua - 310K
Kericho - 290K
U.Gishu - 290K
This would result in an extremely close contest with no clear winner. A run-off would have to be done.
49.4%/ 48.8%
Has IEBC produced the clean voter register?? O-joshua told us he won elections early in the year during the voter registration exercise,so whatever song you keep on singing we have already memorized it. Chapisha register latest hapa. Good observation. We have worked with the register as it is. Assumption here being the effect of the deleted names will be spread evenly across the divide. Nairobi will take the lion's share of the deleted names but luckily it votes 50/50. Just weka the link hapa of whatever data you have and let wazuans and other peace loving Kenyans of goodwill do their own analysis and interpretation.. Better still attach an Excel worksheet...Mbali na hivo hii ni kelele tu na hollow bravado Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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Baratang wrote:FRM2011 wrote:
Today someone decided to tweak the numbers a bit and give Jubilee a best case scenario. A nightmare for us but this is a contest we need to be ready. So here we go.
Assumptions.
1. Uhuru will take Nairobi by 53%(He had 48% in 2013).
2. Kiambu will turnout 93% ( up from 91% in 2013).
3. Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri & Nyandarua will average 94% turnout.(2013-92%)
4. Meru will vote Uhuru 92% (2013 - 90%)
5. Kisii (120,000), Machakos (80,000), Mombasa(100,000).
Top ten for Uhuru would look like this.
Kiambu - 980K
Nairobi -910K
Nakuru - 680K
Meru - 560K
Muranga -540K
Nyeri - 410K
Kirinyaga - 310K
Nyandarua - 310K
Kericho - 290K
U.Gishu - 290K
This would result in an extremely close contest with no clear winner. A run-off would have to be done.
49.4%/ 48.8%
Nothing strange here @FRM2011. We have seen these statistics before. I can guarantee you one thing for sure...predicting the actions of masses during elections to precision accuracy in Kenya more than a week to election date is practically impossible. Dont be happy with those percentages and don't forget "kwona kimera ti kuria". I couldn't agree with you more. It is not an exact science. But we are working within some logical boundaries. In Belgium where voting is mandatory by law, the voter turnout averages 95%. We are also working on the assumption that the trend will follow the same tribal patterns we are used to. If voters decide to vote on issues rather than tribe, I would be happy to come here and type....I-was-wrong.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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More ujinga by NASA... http://www.the-star.co.k...pporter-out-of_c1583825
Quote:
Kalonzo Musyoka has stunned Kenyans by implying there is nothing wrong with forcefully sending a man supporting Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua out of a matatu.
A video that circulated on social media last week showed a man being ejected from a matatu for supporting Mutua's re-election.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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FRM2011 wrote:
Today someone decided to tweak the numbers a bit and give Jubilee a best case scenario. A nightmare for us but this is a contest we need to be ready. So here we go.
Assumptions.
1. Uhuru will take Nairobi by 53%(He had 48% in 2013).
2. Kiambu will turnout 93% ( up from 91% in 2013).
3. Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri & Nyandarua will average 94% turnout.(2013-92%)
4. Meru will vote Uhuru 92% (2013 - 90%)
5. Kisii (120,000), Machakos (80,000), Mombasa(100,000).
Top ten for Uhuru would look like this.
Kiambu - 980K
Nairobi -910K
Nakuru - 680K
Meru - 560K
Muranga -540K
Nyeri - 410K
Kirinyaga - 310K
Nyandarua - 310K
Kericho - 290K
U.Gishu - 290K
This would result in an extremely close contest with no clear winner. A run-off would have to be done.
49.4%/ 48.8%
Glad to see you are coming back to your senses.At least you can now see a run-off and the 10M strong crap is over. Please put the same for NASWAS top 10. Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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Bigchick wrote:FRM2011 wrote:
Today someone decided to tweak the numbers a bit and give Jubilee a best case scenario. A nightmare for us but this is a contest we need to be ready. So here we go.
Assumptions.
1. Uhuru will take Nairobi by 53%(He had 48% in 2013).
2. Kiambu will turnout 93% ( up from 91% in 2013).
3. Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri & Nyandarua will average 94% turnout.(2013-92%)
4. Meru will vote Uhuru 92% (2013 - 90%)
5. Kisii (120,000), Machakos (80,000), Mombasa(100,000).
Top ten for Uhuru would look like this.
Kiambu - 980K
Nairobi -910K
Nakuru - 680K
Meru - 560K
Muranga -540K
Nyeri - 410K
Kirinyaga - 310K
Nyandarua - 310K
Kericho - 290K
U.Gishu - 290K
This would result in an extremely close contest with no clear winner. A run-off would have to be done.
49.4%/ 48.8%
Glad to see you are coming back to your senses.At least you can now see a run-off and the 10M strong crap is over. Please put the same for NASWAS top 10. Interesting fact. The top ten counties for Uhuru will carry around 65%-68% of his total votes. For Baba, that figure is 56 %. After the top ten, the other 37 counties will give uhuru an average of 75K-85K. For Baba, that figure is 95K-100K. In short Baba is not top heavy. His support is broad-based. See his top ten below. Nairobi Kakamega Kisumu Machakos Homabay Bungoma Siaya Kitui Makueni Kisii Apart from Nairobi(860K) and Kakamega ( 550K), the rest are below 500K votes.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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FRM2011 wrote:Bigchick wrote:FRM2011 wrote:
Today someone decided to tweak the numbers a bit and give Jubilee a best case scenario. A nightmare for us but this is a contest we need to be ready. So here we go.
Assumptions.
1. Uhuru will take Nairobi by 53%(He had 48% in 2013).
2. Kiambu will turnout 93% ( up from 91% in 2013).
3. Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri & Nyandarua will average 94% turnout.(2013-92%)
4. Meru will vote Uhuru 92% (2013 - 90%)
5. Kisii (120,000), Machakos (80,000), Mombasa(100,000).
Top ten for Uhuru would look like this.
Kiambu - 980K
Nairobi -910K
Nakuru - 680K
Meru - 560K
Muranga -540K
Nyeri - 410K
Kirinyaga - 310K
Nyandarua - 310K
Kericho - 290K
U.Gishu - 290K
This would result in an extremely close contest with no clear winner. A run-off would have to be done.
49.4%/ 48.8%
Glad to see you are coming back to your senses.At least you can now see a run-off and the 10M strong crap is over. Please put the same for NASWAS top 10. Interesting fact. The top ten counties for Uhuru will carry around 65%-68% of his total votes. For Baba, that figure is 56 %. After the top ten, the other 37 counties will give uhuru an average of 75K-85K. For Baba, that figure is 95K-100K. In short Baba is not top heavy. His support is broad-based. See his top ten below. Nairobi Kakamega Kisumu Machakos Homabay Bungoma Siaya Kitui Makueni Kisii Apart from Nairobi(860K) and Kakamega ( 550K), the rest are below 500K votes. Be kind please. Bee specific of the NASWA figures.That below 500k is to general.It could be anything....100k to 499k. Meanwhile your simulations show that Uhuruto are only popular in 10 counties?The other 37 Joshua & Steve have an edge. Baringo, Bomet, Laikipia,Embu,Nandi na kadhalika belong to NASWA?Please go slow on whatever you are taking. Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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