wazua Thu, Mar 19, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

372 Pages«<7677787980>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
hisah
#771 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 4:48:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
I can see parliament was very busy today with many financial related bills getting ironed out. CGT, interest rate cap and 5B core capital rule.

MPs throw out Sh5bn core capital rule

Feels like we're due for a bottom to start developing.


Is this what you were saying about watching the CB? Have they seen the consequences of their actions in red?

The CB has been against the core capital rule as well as the interest rate cap. The CB has also stopped fx interventions, shut down a dead bank and is also willing to disagree with treasury (banking core capital nonsense). The CB has also relaxed cash reserve ratio (CRR) for banks and this has swiftly deflated the interbank rate from crisis levels.

I prefer CBs that are willing to disagree with treasury when necessary. Next the CB will engage on liquidity stimulus by slashing rates as they realize recession is in town. The rate hike pause is good for now as long as they maintain a level head about the Usd fx reality.

But apart from a level headed CB, one also needs to factor the local market mood as well as the global mood (FTSE's mood in NSE's case).

Btw ADSS is overpriced in NSE KE. Trading at 6.00 while in London its price when converted to KES should be around 1.60. That's a very huge spread between NSE and LSE price levels d'oh!

@mnandii, the FTSE NSE15 weekly chart looks ripe for one more flash down then a huge rebound.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Friday, August 28, 2015 4:56 AM | Reason: Not specified
mnandii
#772 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 7:18:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Dyer predicts shilling to hit 110 by Dec on market forces, imports

Quote:
The Kenya shilling could hit 110 units to the dollar by year-end in view of the speculative market tendencies and a rising current account deficit, an investment bank says.

Analysts at Dyer & Blair say in a report that a bear trend in the value of the shilling could push it to between Sh105 and Sh110 to the greenback. Already, some of the foreign exchange bureaus are selling the US currency at Sh105.

The investment bankers, concerned about the foreign investors in the stock market, say the accelerated imports for infrastructure development are only likely to push the shilling further down. A weaker shilling enables investors to buy more shares, but leads to lower returns when they sell on exit.


link

Interesting, but I don't see it happening.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
hisah
#773 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 11:32:20 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mpesa bank bulls unrelenting to let support levels cave in everytime they are tested. Line in the sand is 11.50. That is the critical level that must hold otherwise the bulls will be taken to the cleaners.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  |
the deal
#774 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 11:52:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank bulls unrelenting to let support levels cave in everytime they are tested. Line in the sand is 11.50. That is the critical level that must hold otherwise the bulls will be taken to the cleaners.

It's trading ex dividend next week...i bet 4000 will cave in then...the bears are too strong...small rally followed by a sharp sell off has been the trend this year...we got hammered this week...a relief rally is welcome from this oversold levels...
Back to top
  |
hisah
#775 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 12:27:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank bulls unrelenting to let support levels cave in everytime they are tested. Line in the sand is 11.50. That is the critical level that must hold otherwise the bulls will be taken to the cleaners.

It's trading ex dividend next week...i bet 4000 will cave in then...the bears are too strong...small rally followed by a sharp sell off has been the trend this year...we got hammered this week...a relief rally is welcome from this oversold levels...

Next Friday is when the bulls will know their fate in this counter once it goes exdiv. If that 11.50 peg doesn't hold, NSE20 will slice through 3900.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  |
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#776 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 2:23:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, SPT and sparkly check out this weekly FTSE NSE 15 chart! Going into the airpocket zone.... We have acres to fall!! Support at 187 has been taken out with force.




From the NSE20 peak at 5499 to date 4171 the index has shed 24.14%.

From the year open at 5117 to date the index is down 18.48%

Final chance for the bulls to hold the fort by defending the 4000 level. The long term trendline from the GFC low (2360) currently rests around that 4000 level. If that breaks down it'll be a very nasty thing for the bulls.


Very interesting. NSE 20 will always trail FTSE NSE 15 on the haircuts.
September 4th will see the remaining Mpesa bulls cave in and with the price, will go the 4,000 support level.
Remember China's PPT have been selling USTs to support the bearish CNY to sub 6.4 and propping up the Stock market to fool the masses ahead of the WW11 Victory parade on September 3rd. So we have a double whammy kind of situation the NSE20 bulls will have to contend with from Sept 4th. Oh and that taper(sorry FED rate) story will gain more ground in September even as it will emerge the FEDs hand are tied seeing the chings are deep into UST selling(other EMs eg Malaysia could be quietly doing the same) that will have an impact of raising the yields,and affect the mortgage market negatively.
Yellen and her team could be very well considering a Q4 option while fooling mainstreet about a rate hikeSad
@SufficientlyP
Back to top
  |
hisah
#777 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 3:25:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@SPT, if Q4 is launched. Wow! The equity bulls will furiously gore the bears currently having a field day. That would create one serious rip rally kill many short sellers in one day! That short covering is what would make that rally a spectacular parabolic.

FTSE KE NSE15 daily chart is attempting a reversal as per today's close posting a 3.59% gain powered by mpesa bank,equity, EABL and KCB counters. Closed @181.58 from 175.28. Will it hold when mpesa bank goes exdiv next week?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  |
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#778 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 4:30:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
@SPT, if Q4 is launched. Wow! The equity bulls will furiously gore the bears currently having a field day. That would create one serious rip rally kill many short sellers in one day! That short covering is what would make that rally a spectacular parabolic.

FTSE KE NSE15 daily chart is attempting a reversal as per today's close posting a 3.59% gain powered by mpesa bank,equity, EABL and KCB counters. Closed @181.58 from 175.28. Will it hold when mpesa bank goes exdiv next week?

I wish they do a Q4.USD bulls will be slaughtered properly . I'd be long Euro and Yen for a quick pip . EM and FM currencies and Equities will rally hard . Christmas will have come early smile
@SufficientlyP
Back to top
  |
lochaz-index
#779 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 4:35:19 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127

QE4 is definitely on the cards and it is a question of when and not if it will happen. This scheme never works and Japan is a good case study... from numerous quantitative easing programs to abenomics, the economy is more or less flat. It gets worse when you are taking on more debt to finance QE while facing decreasing marginal returns from the respective investments. Throw in the current fx climate and you are in for a serious roasting.

Home ownership % are declining on the back of a zero fed rate. Thats a very weak mortgage market and any rate hike however miniscule would crash it. It is not much different/far off its European counterparts on a negative interest regime.

However, I think before the Fed resorts to QE they might be all over place confusing even themselves.

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  |
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#780 Posted : Friday, August 28, 2015 6:12:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
lochaz-index wrote:

QE4 is definitely on the cards and it is a question of when and not if it will happen. This scheme never works and Japan is a good case study... from numerous quantitative easing programs to abenomics, the economy is more or less flat. It gets worse when you are taking on more debt to finance QE while facing decreasing marginal returns from the respective investments. Throw in the current fx climate and you are in for a serious roasting.

Home ownership % are declining on the back of a zero fed rate. Thats a very weak mortgage market and any rate hike however miniscule would crash it. It is not much different/far off its European counterparts on a negative interest regime.

However, I think before the Fed resorts to QE they might be all over place confusing even themselves.


Funny how the markets would look to FED for direction during QE days . Now, it's the other way round.
@SufficientlyP
Back to top
  |
372 Pages«<7677787980>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.