Wazua
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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So, here's my logic. It's intuitive, so please bear...
Imagine the normal curve. It starts slowly, then climbs up to its peak, then down again to a plateau... Then a what?
It depends. On what?
It is not a resurgence that's being feared, it's the shape of the next normal that is feared.
If we can know the story of how a normal moves, we can know what turns it up and what turns it down. Therefore we can use this knowledge to flatten our curve.
The key word in this matter, is 'Novel'. We rarely mention it, but this is the key to the whole matter. Hypothetically we can copy the info in the desired future and paste in the present, to flatten the curve.
The normal thrives in fields with information interchange.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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wukan wrote:madollar wrote:Lolest! wrote:wukan wrote:Quite a lot of guys on twitter are talking about some very bad/abnormal flu in early February. Did anyone here experience it?
Mine was bad I had a headache and took a day off to bask in the sun. My colleague had this flu in Jan and I got it early Feb Cough, Flu, headache Americans had it(from tweets I've seen) Nov-Dec '19 No deaths were reported at the time given that corona mortality rate is high at certain age group someone would have noticed See I told there was something that visited us in early Feb. to paraphrase Gen Paton if everyone is thinking the same thing somebody is not thinking Quote:Data from the National Registry of Diseases shows that when Kenya reported the first case of coronavirus on March 13, there was a spike in pneumonia, one of the complications of severe Covid-19. From January up until early February, the number of pneumonia cases were 137,667 before a dramatic increase to 195,504. While the data for March is not complete, a source at the Ministry of Health suspects that the numbers are still increasing. The pattern — an increase from January and then a plateau — is not similar for the same period in 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke...9470-yebtk8z/index.html
@Wukan,this now scares me. This has been my simple reasoning that we should be hearing of huge numbers of sick people even without testing.Testig is just for confirmation.The data shows a spike of over 57000 cases. Now of the 197k,how many have healed?How many of our medics have been reported ill?How many have died? If a big percentage healed,then tuligonjeka na tukapona.Woi! Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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I can help Kenya flatten this curve. Or rather I am bold enough to dare. If I can get the goodwill and support, and working with already what's there, we can make a difference. There you go @mahegoat.
Otherwise I am feeling so tired. I just want to go and sleep. @Dahatre, maybe we'll have the conversation about abatement on some other thread.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Spikes wrote:tycho wrote:So let me update myself on how the virus behaves, and what we see graphically.
When starting in any given region, the virus starts with a reproduction number of 1.5 and we see the slow number of new cases. Then something happens and the reproduction number rises to 2 and takeoff happens.
Somewhere along the climb, the reproduction number rises towards a higher value and we wring our hands and only wait for God.
After around R0 3.5 we get the peak. Then the virus loses power towards 1.5 again.
1. The virus could be processing information from its surrounding
2. The virus can be said to have a goal that may be undetermined...
3. Maybe, we can have a conversation with the virus
Anyway, I know this maybe forbidden territory for many. I pause there to reflect on my words. And you can share your thoughts... Kwani hii virus ina behave kama mtu? More than a human being. It has a closed feedback loop by ability to compare futuristic outcome with past set goals also on open loop, it's adoptable to the surrounding by enhancing a critical mass and able to set future goals (memory able) then that make it's intelligent, a learning and a reason based agent. 🤔 ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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Bigchick wrote:wukan wrote:madollar wrote:Lolest! wrote:wukan wrote:Quite a lot of guys on twitter are talking about some very bad/abnormal flu in early February. Did anyone here experience it?
Mine was bad I had a headache and took a day off to bask in the sun. My colleague had this flu in Jan and I got it early Feb Cough, Flu, headache Americans had it(from tweets I've seen) Nov-Dec '19 No deaths were reported at the time given that corona mortality rate is high at certain age group someone would have noticed See I told there was something that visited us in early Feb. to paraphrase Gen Paton if everyone is thinking the same thing somebody is not thinking Quote:Data from the National Registry of Diseases shows that when Kenya reported the first case of coronavirus on March 13, there was a spike in pneumonia, one of the complications of severe Covid-19. From January up until early February, the number of pneumonia cases were 137,667 before a dramatic increase to 195,504. While the data for March is not complete, a source at the Ministry of Health suspects that the numbers are still increasing. The pattern — an increase from January and then a plateau — is not similar for the same period in 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke...9470-yebtk8z/index.html
@Wukan,this now scares me. This has been my simple reasoning that we should be hearing of huge numbers of sick people even without testing.Testig is just for confirmation.The data shows a spike of over 57000 cases. Now of the 197k,how many have healed?How many of our medics have been reported ill?How many have died? If a big percentage healed,then tuligonjeka na tukapona.Woi! Cheers @wukan. Such observations are key to understanding this thing. Most races and people living in different regions react differently when you talk of symptoms of certain diseases. Flu is a killer in US but here it's as simple as a bee sting which also can be a killer in US. I also had an unusual stomach upsets in Feb and without taking any meds I was healed and in the same period my sister whom we are close had a flu like disease and very fatigued and the local doc prescriptions didn't work. In 2weeks the feeling just disappeared. Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 101
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Kenyans,My beloved compatriots STOP feigning and Imagining you've already had Corona Virus Stop this ignorance.Stop Fake news. Corona Virus is killing people. Not giving them pneumonia and stopping there!
Kenya Government statistics are nothing but numbers if they dont explain the epidemiology of the said pneumonia.
Simple logic will explain the spike in Pneumonia cases in January was PROBABLY due a very wet and relatively cold December and the movement of large populations during Christmas Holidays helping the pneumonia causing bacteria to spread widely
Stay SAFE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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Rongla wrote:Kenyans,My beloved compatriots STOP feigning and Imagining you've already had Corona Virus Stop this ignorance.Stop Fake news. Corona Virus is killing people. Not giving them pneumonia and stopping there!
Kenya Government statistics are nothing but numbers if they dont explain the epidemiology of the said pneumonia.
Simple logic will explain the spike in Pneumonia cases in January was PROBABLY due a very wet and relatively cold December and the movement of large populations during Christmas Holidays helping the pneumonia causing bacteria to spread widely
Stay SAFE. How about you explain your own ignorance by calling government statistics "just numbers" We have not denied the virus being a killer nor are we saying we stop taking precautions. We are just trying to piece up evidence that shows that this virus has been with us longer than the government Is telling us. Do not forget China China already in high gear trying to cover up this desease untill things got out of hand. Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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Rongla wrote:Kenyans,My beloved compatriots STOP feigning and Imagining you've already had Corona Virus Stop this ignorance.Stop Fake news. Corona Virus is killing people. Not giving them pneumonia and stopping there!
Kenya Government statistics are nothing but numbers if they dont explain the epidemiology of the said pneumonia.
Simple logic will explain the spike in Pneumonia cases in January was PROBABLY due a very wet and relatively cold December and the movement of large populations during Christmas Holidays helping the pneumonia causing bacteria to spread widely
Stay SAFE. I agree @ Rongla. Friends, be careful. Very careful. We are in a delicate situation. Stay safe. Those stats can't be trusted just like that. We need to rigorous in our thought.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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Rongla wrote:Kenyans,My beloved compatriots STOP feigning and Imagining you've already had Corona Virus Stop this ignorance.Stop Fake news. Corona Virus is killing people. Not giving them pneumonia and stopping there!
Kenya Government statistics are nothing but numbers if they dont explain the epidemiology of the said pneumonia.
Simple logic will explain the spike in Pneumonia cases in January was PROBABLY due a very wet and relatively cold December and the movement of large populations during Christmas Holidays helping the pneumonia causing bacteria to spread widely
Stay SAFE. In this entire post you can see why africans fail.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 101
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mpobiz wrote:Rongla wrote:Kenyans,My beloved compatriots STOP feigning and Imagining you've already had Corona Virus Stop this ignorance.Stop Fake news. Corona Virus is killing people. Not giving them pneumonia and stopping there!
Kenya Government statistics are nothing but numbers if they dont explain the epidemiology of the said pneumonia.
Simple logic will explain the spike in Pneumonia cases in January was PROBABLY due a very wet and relatively cold December and the movement of large populations during Christmas Holidays helping the pneumonia causing bacteria to spread widely
Stay SAFE. How about you explain your own ignorance by calling government statistics "just numbers" We have not denied the virus being a killer nor are we saying we stop taking precautions. We are just trying to piece up evidence that shows that this virus has been with us longer than the government Is telling us. Do not forget China China already in high gear trying to cover up this desease untill things got out of hand. Typical Kenyan response!!!. Why don't you read the whole statement not nusu nusu. Let me undeline it for you Kenya Government statistics are nothing but numbers if they dont explain the epidemiology of the said pneumonia. If you can't read that statement in full, What evidence can you piece up together then? This is NOT the time to "Piece up Evidence" What evidence are you piecing up anyway.Then after you've pieced up the evidence, of what help will it be? Let us all help fight the spread of this Killer Virus. #Stay Safe
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