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Kenya airways Right Issue
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I am so glad I took my losses and got rid of this piece of crap 5 years ago though it's a pity I am a shareholder via GoK as a Taxpayer. @vvs please read the circular, even if it's for the sake of it. GoK has gotten a very good deal and the other shareholders too. By logic, we should expect a rally today.. Kigeugeu kamili..... Excuse me?
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/6/2016 Posts: 167 Location: Nairobi
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What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/5/2011 Posts: 1,059
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The share will get a beating for a short while because many people read this line from BD Quote:If the plan is approved, the 70,000 Kenya Airways’ retail shareholders will be left with a tiny 1.24 per cent of the national carrier, down from 24 per cent — making them the biggest losers in the transaction. Demand now at ksh 4.7 with low demand volume of 5,500 units, coming days will be very telling To Each His Own
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower??
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I am so glad I took my losses and got rid of this piece of crap 5 years ago though it's a pity I am a shareholder via GoK as a Taxpayer. @vvs please read the circular, even if it's for the sake of it. GoK has gotten a very good deal and the other shareholders too. By logic, we should expect a rally today.. It's an awful deal for GoK [Taxpayers]. The better option would have been to put KQ into "Restructuring under Bankruptcy"and wipe out the existing shareholders while giving the creditors [including GoK] 100% of a "clean" KQ. The country [Treasury/Taxpayers] would have been better off ditching many of the creditors, suppliers, employees, lawsuits, etc associated with "old KQ" for a "new KQ". Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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@Obiero - Do you have a detailed breakdown of which banks are exposed to Kenya Airways? And what amounts? I have Equity, I&M, NIC & DTB in varying amounts. I hope 100% of their exposure to KQ has been NPL'd. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower?? 1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares 2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn 3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banks  4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5 At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahn  Correct me if my numbers are wrong
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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the deal wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower?? 1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares 2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn 3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banks 4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5 At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahn Correct me if my numbers are wrong @deal has it...8.5 would be an overpayment. Minority shareholders will gain on value but lose on market price...@obiero is mixing the two. I find that the restructuring has too many moving parts more so on the part where KLM is concerned. Seems like a 'leap of faith' kind of plan. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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