I have been trying to localize this coversation in vein. Every time I enter this thread there is a profet of Doom still counting bodies in Italy or more recently trying to predict the next week's deaths here in this country.. The other one is just upset that there is no more reggae.
Why can't we just try to hypothesize more on some events that are happening around us.
1. This outbreak has been here for 4 months now. Our first known case is now 3 weeks old now. When you look at the kitui case and the embakasi case both being priests reveals that that this disease might have landed earlier than we thought.
2.in UK there were even airport baggage hundlers and airport staff had caught the virus. How many of our staff are victims? Did the government concentrated more on the arriving passangers and forgot that customs ,immigration staff, cleaners etc also needed screening?
3.we now have an official recoverd case and I now hear of 3more on the way.
We are also recording of many close contacts of victims who have tested negative.
Then I come across something called herd immunity. Some coutries in Europe adopted it but some like UK have back tracked .
Are we experiencing herd immunity without a pre planned strategy to deal with this virus?
Let's be local and try to seek some local solutions while we discover local ways to deal with this thing.
I was amazed to see someone here suggest that rivatex or the factory in kitui produce protective gear only to hear the head of medical services echoe the same.

So let me update myself on how the virus behaves, and what we see graphically.

When starting in any given region, the virus starts with a reproduction number of 1.5 and we see the slow number of new cases. Then something happens and the reproduction number rises to 2 and takeoff happens.

Somewhere along the climb, the reproduction number rises towards a higher value and we wring our hands and only wait for God.

After around R0 3.5 we get the peak. Then the virus loses power towards 1.5 again.

1. The virus could be processing information from its surrounding

2. The virus can be said to have a goal that may be undetermined...

3. Maybe, we can have a conversation with the virus

Anyway, I know this maybe forbidden territory for many. I pause there to reflect on my words. And you can share your thoughts...

A model based on conditions stated above - absence of drastic intervention and SARS-Cov-2 being taken to have a Reproduction no. of 2 can be represented by a tree diagram. You can take a piece of paper or any suitable method and trace the spread of the virus.

Let's also assume that each person goes to four unique places on any day. Then that individual will spread to 2^3. We can then assume that after spreading to 2^3 people that individual is isolated and gives zero infection. Same for the next person, like that... How long would we need to get 5000 people infected?

Then compare that number to the span of days counted by the government official. Then please share the answer we see if the figures provided can tally with such a model...

This is a rather simple model because once you do 2^3 you get quarantined. A truly unabated case would be quite complex in terms of the spreader getting to new places and infecting everyday till the whole population is covered.

So please let's try the simple model and see if the figures we find will tally with the ones given.

This part is not getting enough attention