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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Quote:A limited emergency-use authorization for two antimalarial drugs touted as game-changers by President Donald Trump has been issued by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat coronavirus patients. Donated by German companies Sandoz and Bayer. Just a loud though, could Germany be using the drug hence the small number of deaths reported? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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mpobiz wrote:I have been trying to localize this coversation in vein. Every time I enter this thread there is a profet of Doom still counting bodies in Italy or more recently trying to predict the next week's deaths here in this country.. The other one is just upset that there is no more reggae.
Why can't we just try to hypothesize more on some events that are happening around us.
1. This outbreak has been here for 4 months now. Our first known case is now 3 weeks old now. When you look at the kitui case and the embakasi case both being priests reveals that that this disease might have landed earlier than we thought.
2.in UK there were even airport baggage hundlers and airport staff had caught the virus. How many of our staff are victims? Did the government concentrated more on the arriving passangers and forgot that customs ,immigration staff, cleaners etc also needed screening?
3.we now have an official recoverd case and I now hear of 3more on the way.
We are also recording of many close contacts of victims who have tested negative.
Then I come across something called herd immunity. Some coutries in Europe adopted it but some like UK have back tracked .
Are we experiencing herd immunity without a pre planned strategy to deal with this virus?
Let's be local and try to seek some local solutions while we discover local ways to deal with this thing.
I was amazed to see someone here suggest that rivatex or the factory in kitui produce protective gear only to hear the head of medical services echoe the same. @Mpobiz, 1. It is probable that we may have developed 'herd immunity' especially if we have reason to believe the virus started spreading earlier than our first confirmed case. However, we may not know if thus is the case if we don't have: (a) An accurate simulation of the spread of the virus and hypothesis that describes the symptoms being described by confirmed cases and (b) Serological tests confirming the presence of herd immunity. Such confirmation of hypotheses is best done if we can have dedicated teams working round the clock to confirm that this is so. We also need to work on many datasets from different countries to determine if what we seem to be experiencing is unique or other countries are sharing it. I don't know whether this would be wise to do without first taking preemptive measures that assume that we are just as susceptible as the worst case scenario around. Our local case is similar to the Swedish experience. Two days ago I asked a Swedish friend whether he had taken any tests, and he said: "Not Sweden, we are not taking much precaution ..if it is stupid or good remains to be seen". Then a day later, the guardian reported: https://www.theguardian.com/international
So, it is also possible that Kenya isn't out of the model describing most country's experience of the virus and that we are all converging towards a common trend.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:Quote:A limited emergency-use authorization for two antimalarial drugs touted as game-changers by President Donald Trump has been issued by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat coronavirus patients. Donated by German companies Sandoz and Bayer. Just a loud though, could Germany be using the drug hence the small number of deaths reported? The possibility can't be discounted. For example, the Japanese have been using a drug they made for influenza in the year 2014, that has had encouraging results. Trump wanted a vaccine being made by the Germans for 'exclusive' use by his country... This makes it highly likely that Germany could be using a drug or a combination of drugs for their patients. Each country is using what it can. Dependence on a standard response may not be the norm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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Shak wrote:limanika wrote:murchr wrote:[quote=limanika]BCG- I hear comparison of data btw BCG vaccinating and non BCG vaccinating countries is generating a lot of interest? Highlight it here https://m.khaleejtimes.c...to-fight-covid-19-study[/quote] Interesting. Europe and the US do not have mandatory BCG vaccination but most African countries do Interesting read that could give hope and explain our low numbers this far. ION,the governments model that suggests 10,000 by end of April is based on which model?Are our circumstances the same? I will not argue with the experts but my simple analysis tells me NO.We shall not get there. Week 1 of April is 4 days from now....and from the daily briefings,the government is working on about 100 samples daily of which less than 10 test positive so by Friday we should be talking of another 50 Max giving us 100. My other simple reasoning is we do not need testing to know things are getting messy,we would be hearing of masses being admitted or visiting hospitals or self medicating or dying with the COVID 19 symptoms. I remain optimistic as I play my role in the best way possible. God bless🇰🇪 Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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Meanwhile we have some great Wazuans missing in action.They are behaving like our Politicians who took a back seat and left us to fight on our own. Our Doctors where are you?Thimioni where are you?Obiero wachana na stocks,come here.Washiku?McReagge? Then once upon a time we had q man called Mawinder. Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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If there are reasonable grounds for optimism, then let's get back to normal life.
Boredom and frustration are beginning to creep in. A company executive and friend is tired of working from home, a member of the middle-class was complaining about getting her work up, ten year old boys are now collecting plastic and metal, construction workers now bask near where I am residing with dry lips...
I have become edgy about even buying a 1/- biscuit for fear of being robbed, or poisoned out of envy.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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P.S. When I check at the stats on worldometers I see Kenya reported it first case on March 12. If this is true, and today is 30th March - at least weeks later and the no. of cases is 50, then the optimism may be misplaced.
The norm for most countries, eg. the US, has been to spend like a whole month with very few cases, on a plateau. The numbers in the American graph begin to rise to double digits after a month or so.
Venezuela reported the first case on March 12 and has 129 cases and 3 deaths.
The reasons we may be having for optimism may fail to be statistically significant.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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My suspicion is this: this virus depends on a threshold value to take off. This threshold value is affected/determined by the operating context, culture, and movement patterns, and probably threshold values of exposure.
These factors may explain the differences of case numbers in each country.
Maybe Kenyans don't move around much on average compared to Spaniards, or Italians.
That is, there may be abatement factors that vary with countries, which will either tend to delay or accelerate a take off in infections.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/22/2009 Posts: 2,449 Location: Africa
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tycho wrote:My suspicion is this: this virus depends on a threshold value to take off. This threshold value is affected/determined by the operating context, culture, and movement patterns, and probably threshold values of exposure.
These factors may explain the differences of case numbers in each country.
Maybe Kenyans don't move around much on average compared to Spaniards, or Italians.
That is, there may be abatement factors that vary with countries, which will either tend to delay or accelerate a take off in infections. You are right @tycho. In Europe for example, football played a big role in the spread. Masses of people travelled between countries to watch their teams play in the various European leagues
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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madollar wrote:Lolest! wrote:wukan wrote:Quite a lot of guys on twitter are talking about some very bad/abnormal flu in early February. Did anyone here experience it?
Mine was bad I had a headache and took a day off to bask in the sun. My colleague had this flu in Jan and I got it early Feb Cough, Flu, headache Americans had it(from tweets I've seen) Nov-Dec '19 No deaths were reported at the time given that corona mortality rate is high at certain age group someone would have noticed See I told there was something that visited us in early Feb. to paraphrase Gen Paton if everyone is thinking the same thing somebody is not thinking Quote:Data from the National Registry of Diseases shows that when Kenya reported the first case of coronavirus on March 13, there was a spike in pneumonia, one of the complications of severe Covid-19. From January up until early February, the number of pneumonia cases were 137,667 before a dramatic increase to 195,504. While the data for March is not complete, a source at the Ministry of Health suspects that the numbers are still increasing. The pattern — an increase from January and then a plateau — is not similar for the same period in 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke...9470-yebtk8z/index.html
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