How do you get documents to allow you to do essential deliveries after 7pm?

I have reason to doubt the correctness of this simulation. Going by the above model that we have generated, and assuming each person went to only 2 places:

Then day 7 would drop by say a factor of 256 giving us new infections of 8,192. If you do the same for all days then cumulative number has to be greater than 10K for a week.

Again if we assume a reproduction number of less than 2, tending towards 1; then we can't have an epidemic. And neither does the condition of going to only one new place with the same reproduction number suffice to have a pandemic.

Therefore the model used by the government is likely to be incorrect.

Do the following countries have BCG vaccination: S Africa, China, S Korea, Uruguay and Tunisia?

I have been trying to localize this coversation in vein. Every time I enter this thread there is a profet of Doom still counting bodies in Italy or more recently trying to predict the next week's deaths here in this country.. The other one is just upset that there is no more reggae.
Why can't we just try to hypothesize more on some events that are happening around us.
1. This outbreak has been here for 4 months now. Our first known case is now 3 weeks old now. When you look at the kitui case and the embakasi case both being priests reveals that that this disease might have landed earlier than we thought.
2.in UK there were even airport baggage hundlers and airport staff had caught the virus. How many of our staff are victims? Did the government concentrated more on the arriving passangers and forgot that customs ,immigration staff, cleaners etc also needed screening?
3.we now have an official recoverd case and I now hear of 3more on the way.
We are also recording of many close contacts of victims who have tested negative.
Then I come across something called herd immunity. Some coutries in Europe adopted it but some like UK have back tracked .
Are we experiencing herd immunity without a pre planned strategy to deal with this virus?
Let's be local and try to seek some local solutions while we discover local ways to deal with this thing.
I was amazed to see someone here suggest that rivatex or the factory in kitui produce protective gear only to hear the head of medical services echoe the same.