Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
|
instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally Not good news for me! I am looking to load up some more. As a buyer I prefer depressed prices!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,177 Location: nairobi
|
instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally at the moment a share going up is not the issue but the worry is the whole market sustaining an up trend "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally at the moment a share going up is not the issue but the worry is the whole market sustaining an up trend Exactly! After weeks of endless selling a snappy rebound was due. A lot of bullish support levels have been broken down during the latest selloff that took NSE20 down to 4080 from 5499.
Don't be fooled by the rebound!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally at the moment a share going up is not the issue but the worry is the whole market sustaining an up trend Exactly! After weeks of endless selling a snappy rebound was due. A lot of bullish support levels have been broken down during the latest selloff that took NSE20 down to 4080 from 5499.
Don't be fooled by the rebound! If I can get equity, safaricom and kcb at my dreams prices, I'll consider this a successful bear run The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
|
Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally at the moment a share going up is not the issue but the worry is the whole market sustaining an up trend Exactly! After weeks of endless selling a snappy rebound was due. A lot of bullish support levels have been broken down during the latest selloff that took NSE20 down to 4080 from 5499.
Don't be fooled by the rebound! If I can get equity, safaricom and kcb at my dreams prices, I'll consider this a successful bear run Which are what respectively? You may not get them though. The movement up for KCB, EQUITY, HF, SAFCOM began last week...
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
|
instinct wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally at the moment a share going up is not the issue but the worry is the whole market sustaining an up trend Exactly! After weeks of endless selling a snappy rebound was due. A lot of bullish support levels have been broken down during the latest selloff that took NSE20 down to 4080 from 5499.
Don't be fooled by the rebound! If I can get equity, safaricom and kcb at my dreams prices, I'll consider this a successful bear run Which are what respectively? equity=25-33, safaricom=8-10 and kcb=30-40You may not get them though. The movement up for KCB, EQUITY, HF, SAFCOM began last week... Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
|
Pesa Nane wrote:instinct wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally at the moment a share going up is not the issue but the worry is the whole market sustaining an up trend Exactly! After weeks of endless selling a snappy rebound was due. A lot of bullish support levels have been broken down during the latest selloff that took NSE20 down to 4080 from 5499.
Don't be fooled by the rebound! If I can get equity, safaricom and kcb at my dreams prices, I'll consider this a successful bear run Which are what respectively? equity=25-33, safaricom=8-10 and kcb=30-40You may not get them though. The movement up for KCB, EQUITY, HF, SAFCOM began last week... Will we reach those crazy numbers in 2015? In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
|
Equity @25??? I would buy the whole bank!!! Okay, as much of it as I could!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
Pesa Nane wrote:instinct wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Looks like its waking up finally at the moment a share going up is not the issue but the worry is the whole market sustaining an up trend Exactly! After weeks of endless selling a snappy rebound was due. A lot of bullish support levels have been broken down during the latest selloff that took NSE20 down to 4080 from 5499.
Don't be fooled by the rebound! If I can get equity, safaricom and kcb at my dreams prices, I'll consider this a successful bear run Which are what respectively? equity=25-33, safaricom=8-10 and kcb=30-40You may not get them though. The movement up for KCB, EQUITY, HF, SAFCOM began last week... Thanks @pesa nane. @instinct. Check out the "bear 2015 wishlist" thread. My cards are on the table The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,477 Location: nairobi
|
payment of the interim dividend plus HE Uhuru launch of their Komarock project are the only fuel driving this bus.. Banks have taken a hit from increased lending rates than have lowered volumes of applicants. High interest expense to match T-bill and other govt paper is another headache for Kenya financials in 2015. Its not looking good. Thank me later
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,067 Location: Nairobi
|
obiero wrote:payment of the interim dividend plus HE Uhuru launch of their Komarock project are the only fuel driving this bus.. Banks have taken a hit from increased lending rates than have lowered volumes of applicants. High interest expense to match T-bill and other govt paper is another headache for Kenya financials in 2015. Its not looking good. Thank me later Are you still waiting for the thanks from those you convinced to buy into KQ's Rights Issue?  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
|
VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:payment of the interim dividend plus HE Uhuru launch of their Komarock project are the only fuel driving this bus.. Banks have taken a hit from increased lending rates than have lowered volumes of applicants. High interest expense to match T-bill and other govt paper is another headache for Kenya financials in 2015. Its not looking good. Thank me later Are you still waiting for the thanks from those you convinced to buy into KQ's Rights Issue? He he he. At 20s levels and earlier!!! Ouch!!! But one thing is for sure! They would love to meet him! Preferably is some dark alley somewhere!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
|
I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger. Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus! I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
|
Wazuans, mpo??? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/19/2015 Posts: 21 Location: Everywhere
|
MaichBlack wrote:I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger.
Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus!
I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision! HFCK to me is exposed to the worst kind of conditions, just IMO. Funding costs will get more expensive and housing market is facing pressures. Traditionally the lowest ROE's in the market. I'd avoid. For instance, KCB is selling at a lower PE, but has prospects for better dividend yield and their funding is never a problem due to GoK biz, branch network and agency banking.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
@maich. I've always been a fan of this share. I believe it will go lower, at 18.00 is when I'll start buying. I remember you asked earlier when we weren't sure if we were in a proper bear market. 20.00 seems to be holding but I think it will cave in. By the time equity, KCB are well below 40.00 and saf well below 14 we should be there The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
|
MaichBlack wrote:I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger.
Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus!
I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision! I believe it will hit 10/= next year as govt raises the 600B for loan repayments.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,477 Location: nairobi
|
MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:payment of the interim dividend plus HE Uhuru launch of their Komarock project are the only fuel driving this bus.. Banks have taken a hit from increased lending rates than have lowered volumes of applicants. High interest expense to match T-bill and other govt paper is another headache for Kenya financials in 2015. Its not looking good. Thank me later Are you still waiting for the thanks from those you convinced to buy into KQ's Rights Issue? He he he. At 20s levels and earlier!!! Ouch!!! But one thing is for sure! They would love to meet him! Preferably is some dark alley somewhere!!! Ona sasa. Hadnt seen this porojo ya penny mbili from @vvs. I never sent anyone to buy KQ at rights price. Not me! The internet never forgets..
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,067 Location: Nairobi
|
MaichBlack wrote:I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger.
Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus!
I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision! Every time HFCK faces higher funding/deposit rates, it has problems. See the timing of their Rights Issues juxtaposed to the movement in interest rates. A long-term lender like HFCK finds it harder to raise rates even if its funding costs increase. You cannot easily 'foreclose' on a borrower who has borrowed 90% LTV. The courts do not look kindly on lenders who hike rates even of their funding costs increase. Enjoy 23% (less WTax) on GoK T-Bills & then buy HFCK with 23% more cash. I doubt HFCK's prices will rise by 18% anytime soon. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
|
Finally some tangible results... Housing Finance Group (HF) has posted a 9.6 per cent growth in net profit for the nine months to September driven by increased lending. The listed mortgage lender reported an after-tax profit of Sh777 million as at end of September up from Sh709 million in a similar period last year. “The increase in capital means that the banks capability of lending and deposit taking also increases,” said HF chief executive Frank Ireri. The lender raised Sh3.5 billion through a rights issue at the beginning of the year. READ: Housing Finance prices Sh3.5 bn cash call Loans and advances to customers increased to Sh51.7 billion in September up from Sh43.2 billion posted during a similar period in 2014. Customer deposits increased to Sh37.5 billion up from Sh33.1 billion. http://www.businessdaily...4/-/3vpvbw/-/index.html
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|