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Taking positions for 2010
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sheep
#61 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 10:46:52 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
How does one value KQ?The assets could be some old junk planes and hangers,It has negative p/e and undisclosed hedges.Airlines are so tricky even Buffet keeps out of them.I am taking a fully speculative position,with stop losses in place.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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kishindo
#62 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 12:48:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 121
whether KQ reaches 60 or 80 i can only be thankful....got in @17.50 in march 2009 and off at 50...i'm off for holidays!
Less is more....for Architects only!!
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Pretty
#63 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 1:17:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/8/2009
Posts: 263
Location: Gigiri, Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal... Let me finish buying one of my current picks then I will tell you which one...

It is rarely traded but sells at a huge discount to any metric you can slap on it...

I am a Warren Buffett fan... & this honey could excite Graham as well...


smile Would you by any chance be referring to BOC?

smile I have been acquiring them gradually and will stop doing so in April when major announcements are due. Read my lips but don't come too near.
>>>>>>
A thing of beauty is a joy for ever:
Its loveliness increases;
It will never pass into nothingness;
But still will keep a bower quiet for us,
and a sleep full of sweet dreams,
and health, and quiet breathing. - Keats

>>>>>>>In life,there are three classes of people,
1. Those who make things happen,
2. Those who watch things happen
3. And those who ask what happened.

Where do you fall?
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Wa_ithaka
#64 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 2:20:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
My Equity target for 2010 was Ksh21.00, but I think it'll surpass that now...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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mukiha
#65 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 2:36:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
sheep wrote:
How does one value KQ?The assets could be some old junk planes and hangers,It has negative p/e and undisclosed hedges.Airlines are so tricky even Buffet keeps out of them.I am taking a fully speculative position,with stop losses in place.


@sheep; KQ has one of the youngest fleets in the sky! Most of their planes are under 10 years old. Indeed this is one of KQ's winning points in the market. So, no "old junk planes" there.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, January 18, 2010 2:42 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 7:01:43 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
sheep wrote:
How does one value KQ?
The assets could be some old junk planes and hangers, It has negative p/e and undisclosed hedges. Airlines are so tricky even Buffet keeps out of them.I am taking a fully speculative position,with stop losses in place.


@sheep -

I was trying to find a polite way to say this but I cant...

Bullshit (except the Warren Buffett bit but most of his airlines information/analysis is based on US airlines & to some extent the hedges)

- Very successful airlines include Virgin Atlantic, RyanAir & Southwest

The stop-loss order system does not work very well in Kenya...

Why would you even bother speculating in this 'How does one value KQ'?

A little research shows KQ has one of the world's youngest fleets... & mostly Boeings.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 7:17 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#67 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 1:20:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Recap for 19 Jan 2010:

KQ @54 is way above my 45/- target. I will still hold coz I think 2H will be very good & crude at $84 will be a relief on the hedges

Williamson @125 is still struggling. Well, I still have some time... waiting for the results in June 2010

KPLC at 147 is sort of a laggard when you consider my target is 200 (31 Dec 2011) but IMHO it will be OK after the 2009-10 results are out in Sep/Oct 2010.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, January 20, 2010 7:36 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 2:40:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Recap for 20 Jan 2010:

KQ @55.50 (trades went as high as 58) is way above my 45/- target. I will hold until results are announced. 2010 should be good as the economies in Africa pick up. And World Cup 2010

Williamson (@125 last price) had no trades but I have time...

KPLC at 150/- showed some heft but my target is 200 (by 31 Dec 2011)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 12:04:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Kenya Airways traded 4.3mn shares today with 84% trades by foreign buyers. It closed at 57/- (hitting highs) This is a consolidation. I expect the price to start another run upwards from here...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#70 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 12:23:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
The trading towards the end showed sellers running out at that price level,and another 1% of KQ may have gone to foreigners in that single session.
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