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Value Investing doesn't work anymore
sqft
#61 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2020 10:15:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
I think that @amorphous (or whoever he may morph into) has raised a very important point which all investors must not ignore. And that is - can one live off investments at the NSE? To maintain a middle-class lifestyle in Nairobi you need some 300k each month. So it means that if you are lucky to get a 10% dividend (before tax) to maintain the lifestyle, you need to have an investment of KES 36m at the NSE. I don't want to bring in the issue of capital gains or capital losses. So how many wazuans have invested 36m at the NSE?

The only wazuan to have declared his portfolio at NSE is @obiero. All the other wazuans list some amorphous percentages of their holdings so one can never know the amount of their investment at the NSE.

So let's look at a typical wazuan's portfolio, in this case @obieros last known portfolio: 5500 COOP, 2000 HF, 7500 KCB, 100000 KENR, 392,100 KQ. At today's prices (3rd June 2020) COOP (12.40), HF (3.74), KCB (34.95), KNRE (2.30), KQ (1.99), his portfolio is worth about 1.35m. If a miracle happens and he gets a 10% dividend, that's 135k pa, or 11k a month before tax. So how would he survive on such an amount? Even a mama mboga makes more than that. Is the 11K worth the time and stress involved monitoring the stock market performance every day?

Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
S.Mutaga III
#62 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2020 10:33:39 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Fyatu wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
There are several threads on this forum by people like Stocksmaster proving that value investing works. Most of us guys just don't know how to find value. That's the problem.

However, I think value investing is a lot harder in first world developed markets because there are too many hedge funds and professionals with billions of cash looking for value. That makes it a lot harder to find.



@S.Mutaga III. What are you buying/have you bought this year 2020? What was your entry price and when/what price are you exiting? Thanks in advance

I'm out of stocks this year. I wouldn't risk investing before seeing how covid-19 affects the income statements of companies. We are living in "interesting" times. KCB may appear as a bargain at 35 only to issue a profit warning later in the year. What appears as a bargain right now may not be a bargain if you factor in covid-19. So, I am out of stocks for now.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
S.Mutaga III
#63 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2020 10:35:22 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
sparkly wrote:
The evolution of @Mugundaman posts.


@Mugundaman's posts under any of his aliases take a pre defined path of 5 stages.

1. Stage one - he starts with innocuous one sentence posts with smiling facesmile and lol-ling Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly emojis.

2. Stage two - He realizes that like a naughty child in class, you are not paying attention and digesting his points. He introduces all CAPS, brackets, and bold fonts for emphasize. Red and green are his favorite colours. To hammer home his points and eradicate the nonsense in your head, he will then throw in links and embedded photos. Not forgetting snippets in Swahili and Sheng.

3. Stage three - You think he was done? No no no he was just warming up. He now goes for the jugular, attacking "A" students, stocks investment (obviously), evil western economics and despotic employment. At this point he let's all loose: smileys + ALL CAPs + Underline + Bold + Slang + coloured fonts. He throwns in YouTube links for good measure. By now he will be averaging a post an hour even at the unholy hours of 2-4 am.

4. Stage four - the coup de grace. He has shown your errant ways. Finally, he delivers the coup de grace, a lecture on religious morality. His main focus is avoiding fombe for men and being chaste for women. He recommends living an eunuched life in DC as the solution for all problems.

5. Stage five - Finito, it is done. Having taught his lessons, he declares that he is finished. Like the son of man, he leaves wazua to come back under a different handle.
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
sqft
#64 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2020 10:49:24 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
amorphous wrote:
sparkly wrote:
The evolution of @Mugundaman posts.


@Mugundaman's posts under any of his aliases take a pre defined path of 5 stages.

1. Stage one - he starts with innocuous one sentence posts with smiling facesmile and lol-ling Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly emojis.

2. Stage two - He realizes that like a naughty child in class, you are not paying attention and digesting his points. He introduces all CAPS, brackets, and bold fonts for emphasize. Red and green are his favorite colours. To hammer home his points and eradicate the nonsense in your head, he will then throw in links and embedded photos. Not forgetting snippets in Swahili and Sheng.

3. Stage three - You think he was done? No no no he was just warming up. He now goes for the jugular, attacking "A" students, stocks investment (obviously), evil western economics and despotic employment. At this point he let's all loose: smileys + ALL CAPs + Underline + Bold + Slang + coloured fonts. He throwns in YouTube links for good measure. By now he will be averaging a post an hour even at the unholy hours of 2-4 am.

4. Stage four - the coup de grace. He has shown your errant ways. Finally, he delivers the coup de grace, a lecture on religious morality. His main focus is avoiding fombe for men and being chaste for women. He recommends living an eunuched life in DC as the solution for all problems.

5. Stage five - Finito, it is done. Having taught his lessons, he declares that he is finished. Like the son of man, he leaves wazua to come back under a different handle.

Laughing out loudly

We should focus on the message and not the messenger. Keep on saying it kinaga ubaga @amorphous.
Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
VituVingiSana
#65 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 3:12:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
sqft wrote:
I think that @amorphous (or whoever he may morph into) has raised a very important point which all investors must not ignore. And that is - can one live off investments at the NSE? To maintain a middle-class lifestyle in Nairobi you need some 300k each month. So it means that if you are lucky to get a 10% dividend (before tax) to maintain the lifestyle, you need to have an investment of KES 36m at the NSE. I don't want to bring in the issue of capital gains or capital losses. So how many wazuans have invested 36m at the NSE?

The only wazuan to have declared his portfolio at NSE is @obiero. All the other wazuans list some amorphous percentages of their holdings so one can never know the amount of their investment at the NSE.

So let's look at a typical wazuan's portfolio, in this case @obieros last known portfolio: 5500 COOP, 2000 HF, 7500 KCB, 100000 KENR, 392,100 KQ. At today's prices (3rd June 2020) COOP (12.40), HF (3.74), KCB (34.95), KNRE (2.30), KQ (1.99), his portfolio is worth about 1.35m. If a miracle happens and he gets a 10% dividend, that's 135k pa, or 11k a month before tax. So how would he survive on such an amount? Even a mama mboga makes more than that. Is the 11K worth the time and stress involved monitoring the stock market performance every day?

Wazuans are in different stages of their lives. What was "crazy money" when one is 20 isn't the same at 30 or 40 or 50 even after factoring in inflation. Live your own life.

1) I don't think many start off "wealthy" but invest from their earnings (salaries, business, etc). I was lucky to have found mentors who taught me the importance of SAVING from my first job right after high school. Haba na haba...
Try to spend LESS than you earn. Don't worry about Mark and his new car. Or Juma and his new sofa sets. Or Jane and her new 50" TV. Or Owuor who is always at the hottest club in town.

2) Compounding. Very, very important. If you can work from 20-50 (30 years) and keep investing NEW money (part of your monthly salary) and compound (dividends and capital gains) the growth could be huge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svbkVpeuwE4 "Snowball Effect"

3) Kibaki era. I will openly come out and say it. This was the BEST time for me. I do not know how to describe the craziness for you. In 20/20 hindsight it was unsustainable. An announcement of a bonus (same cake, more slices) would make the price increase. It wasn't uncommon to double an investment in 3 months. Ridiculous and as I found out it was unsustainable.

4) LUCK. Yes, lucky. If one had investible income in 2003 onwards. For some, the value of their land shot up like crazy.
Looking back, I wish I had invested everything I had in 2001/2002 when people were still despondent during the Moi era.
LUCK in buying the right firm. Laughing out loudly Those days I didn't know much about PERs, etc. It was momentum investing. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
No, I do not recommend it.

5) We are different. Different habits. Different stages of life. Different tastes.
If you own your house, a modest car, in good health, don't gamble, don't smoke/drink excessively, travel modestly and don't have kids at home isn't 300k more than enough?

Of course, if you are partying every weekend, drink the top-shelf stuff at Sankara, lease a new-ish Mercedes, rent a high-end house in Westlands/Lavington, holiday abroad, fly business class, etc, send kids to ISK then 1mn/month isn't enough!

Finally, I will address this "All the other wazuans list some amorphous percentages of their holdings so one can never know the amount of their investment at the NSE."

Many, including myself, investors are shy about "declaring" their portfolio for reasons of privacy. Many of us older folk were brought up to be "modest" and "private" in matters concerning finance.

It could be cultural. I don't recall my grandfather, father and uncles ever discussing money with their families. Times are changing and I think it's good we do so nowadays.

Even Warren Buffett doesn't really discuss his personal wealth but talks of his companies/investments, Berkshire, etc. He does that given BH is a listed and has shareholders/partners.

Of course, you are free to share your portfolio with us. smile

And @Obiero has other investments.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Monk
#66 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 7:35:44 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 272
sqft wrote:
I think that @amorphous (or whoever he may morph into) has raised a very important point which all investors must not ignore. And that is - can one live off investments at the NSE? To maintain a middle-class lifestyle in Nairobi you need some 300k each month. So it means that if you are lucky to get a 10% dividend (before tax) to maintain the lifestyle, you need to have an investment of KES 36m at the NSE. I don't want to bring in the issue of capital gains or capital losses. So how many wazuans have invested 36m at the NSE?

The only wazuan to have declared his portfolio at NSE is @obiero. All the other wazuans list some amorphous percentages of their holdings so one can never know the amount of their investment at the NSE.

So let's look at a typical wazuan's portfolio, in this case @obieros last known portfolio: 5500 COOP, 2000 HF, 7500 KCB, 100000 KENR, 392,100 KQ. At today's prices (3rd June 2020) COOP (12.40), HF (3.74), KCB (34.95), KNRE (2.30), KQ (1.99), his portfolio is worth about 1.35m. If a miracle happens and he gets a 10% dividend, that's 135k pa, or 11k a month before tax. So how would he survive on such an amount? Even a mama mboga makes more than that. Is the 11K worth the time and stress involved monitoring the stock market performance every day?



@sqft If I'm not mistaken, Obiero is a self-declared trader and not a dividend hunter on the NSE. His amount of investment here is not representative.

Some Wazuans here like @Stocksmaster have proved repeatedly that combining dividend investing and trading volatile stocks can earn you much more than the 10% you used as a reference.

Some Income investors too earn much higher DYs than 10%, based on their ABPs and duration of holding. Think of those who've held Safaricom from when it was ranging at Ksh 3-5, and accumulated large quantities. Today they make at least 30% annually.
sparkly
#67 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 7:40:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sqft wrote:
If a miracle happens and he gets a 10% dividend, that's 135k pa, or 11k a month before tax. So how would he survive on such an amount? Even a mama mboga makes more than that. Is the 11K worth the time and stress involved monitoring the stock market performance every day?



1. 11k a month is a decent amount to get without working. Remember millions of Kenyans survive on less than a dollar per day (3,000 per month).

2. Mama mboga makes more than 11k per month, true depending on who your mama mboga is. A big supermarket chain like Carrefour is just a fancy mama mboga. Retail net margins are generally around 5% so mama mboga has to sell mboga worth kshs 2.6m per year to have a chance of making 11k per month.

3. Wealth is generated by working assets (more on assets later) to earn an income. Income is used in three ways. Firstly, by spending on basics and luxuries. Secondly, by saving for re-investment or for a rainy day. Thirdly by re-investing in assets that will generate future income. Naturally, spending more than your income leads to net liabilities.

4. Back to assets. There are 3 broad classes of assets that generate income. Firstly, the human body. A person labours for his employer or his clients to earn an income. Highly skilled labourers get paid more hence the reason why labourers invest in education and training for more skills.The second class of assets is tradeable goods. Traders sell (turn over) raw or manufactured goods to make a profit. The more specialized the goods the higher the profit earned. Third class of assets is rental assets like rental property or money i.e. passive investments. You lend your property or money to labourers and traders and get back a return of rent, interest or dividends.

5. People start and live their lives differently. Some are born to capital owners and never need to labour or trade. Others are born to traders and continue trading to earn their living. Still others are born to labourers and peasants and lack capital to trade or rent out. The latter class has no option but to sell their labour for an income.

6. Labourers should be aware that a normal human being works for 20-30 years then is deemed to lack the energy to work. He can however expect to live on average an extra 10-20 years while lacking the energy to work. During this time a labourer relies on income from passive investments accumulated when he/she had the energy to work. Note that reliance on children in old age is a very risky bet.

7. In conclusion ladies and gentlemen of wazua, nse exists for three purposes i.e. for passive investors to earn their incomes/ living, for traders to borrow capital for expansion of their businesses, for labourers to accumulate passive investment to keep them going after retirement. Compounding, as discussed by chief @VVS is a useful tool for labourers seeking to accumulate enough passive investments for a later time.
Life is short. Live passionately.
sqft
#68 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 9:13:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
Nice thoughts and info from wazuans. Iam glad that @amorphous caused a storm for this to happen.
Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
sparkly
#69 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 9:34:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sqft wrote:
Nice thoughts and info from wazuans. Iam glad that @amorphous caused a storm for this to happen.


The issue is not the message but delivery without decorum and basic netiquette smile
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#70 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2020 9:46:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
Monk wrote:
sqft wrote:
I think that @amorphous (or whoever he may morph into) has raised a very important point which all investors must not ignore. And that is - can one live off investments at the NSE? To maintain a middle-class lifestyle in Nairobi you need some 300k each month. So it means that if you are lucky to get a 10% dividend (before tax) to maintain the lifestyle, you need to have an investment of KES 36m at the NSE. I don't want to bring in the issue of capital gains or capital losses. So how many wazuans have invested 36m at the NSE?

The only wazuan to have declared his portfolio at NSE is @obiero. All the other wazuans list some amorphous percentages of their holdings so one can never know the amount of their investment at the NSE.

So let's look at a typical wazuan's portfolio, in this case @obieros last known portfolio: 5500 COOP, 2000 HF, 7500 KCB, 100000 KENR, 392,100 KQ. At today's prices (3rd June 2020) COOP (12.40), HF (3.74), KCB (34.95), KNRE (2.30), KQ (1.99), his portfolio is worth about 1.35m. If a miracle happens and he gets a 10% dividend, that's 135k pa, or 11k a month before tax. So how would he survive on such an amount? Even a mama mboga makes more than that. Is the 11K worth the time and stress involved monitoring the stock market performance every day?



@sqft If I'm not mistaken, Obiero is a self-declared trader and not a dividend hunter on the NSE. His amount of investment here is not representative.

Some Wazuans here like @Stocksmaster have proved repeatedly that combining dividend investing and trading volatile stocks can earn you much more than the 10% you used as a reference.

Some Income investors too earn much higher DYs than 10%, based on their ABPs and duration of holding. Think of those who've held Safaricom from when it was ranging at Ksh 3-5, and accumulated large quantities. Today they make at least 30% annually.

Only 5% of my total investment rests at the NSE at any given time.. Sometimes it dips below 3%.. I would never invest more than the said percentage as stock trading carries possibility of sudden total loss at worst or severe erosion of capital at best, but during good times you can also make a killing. I am a trader through and through for the capital gains. The dividends I drink with @maka

KQ ABP 4.26
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