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USD/KES $ at 95
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.
Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay. Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year. Things are getting thick... http://www.businessdaily...8/-/wjouhaz/-/index.htmlpossunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/14/2010 Posts: 521 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:maka wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:[quote=Gatheuzi]Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.
Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay. Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year. Things are getting thick... http://www.businessdaily.../-/wjouhaz/-/index.html[/quote] Now at 102.50 ++
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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The optimist wrote:maka wrote:maka wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:[quote=Gatheuzi]Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.
Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay. Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year. Things are getting thick... http://www.businessdaily.../-/wjouhaz/-/index.html[/quote] Now at 102.50 ++ It hit 103+ until CBK intervened. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/28/2008 Posts: 2,276 Location: Kibish
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I see it heading to 120! Nadondosha meli kubwa seuze ngalawa!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Imho, oil price falling will be a game changer Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels. Serious! Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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KulaRaha wrote:CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.
Serious! Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day. If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK?
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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muganda wrote:KulaRaha wrote:CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.
Serious! Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day. If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK? typical stuff by the CB they protect a level then pull the lid causing a blowout, seems like they are only looking to limit "volatility" as opposed to weakness
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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muganda wrote:KulaRaha wrote:CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.
Serious! Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day. If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK? What if you shorted above 102 intraday and buy back at end of day? Kinda easy and predictable. I think the idea is to bring the USD below 102...closer to 100. Doesn't seem to be happening. Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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KulaRaha wrote:muganda wrote:KulaRaha wrote:CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.
Serious! Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day. If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK? What if you shorted above 102 intraday and buy back at end of day? Kinda easy and predictable. I think the idea is to bring the USD below 102...closer to 100. Doesn't seem to be happening. you can do this but how apart from CB intervention what else would cause a retracement? the day theyr out you will be wiped out
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
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kizee1 wrote:KulaRaha wrote:muganda wrote:KulaRaha wrote:CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.
Serious! Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day. If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK? What if you shorted above 102 intraday and buy back at end of day? Kinda easy and predictable. I think the idea is to bring the USD below 102...closer to 100. Doesn't seem to be happening. you can do this but how apart from CB intervention what else would cause a retracement? the day theyr out you will be wiped out Waiting to see the effects of Iran deal on oil prices.....could be a counter weight. Oil prices falling?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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Senate summons new CBK boss over weak shilling and to salvage some of their 'favoured' small banks... next Thursday. Usd/Kes just about 102.24 and the CBK traders can't even take a tea-break; otherwise they may find it back over 103. Meanwhile, the NSE haemorrhages.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Nigerian naira ends lower despite central bank interventionQuote:The bank has been intervening almost daily in the interbank market since the start of the year as liquidity is very low due to depressed foreign investment as Nigeria's economy has been hit by plunging oil prices. That has sent the naira to record lows. Ghana's central bank ready to intervene "vigorously" this year to ensure currency stabilityQuote:Ghana's central bank is ready to intervene "vigorously" this year to ensure a much more stable currency, a senior bank official said on Wednesday, after the cedi slumped 31 percent against the dollar in 2014.
The currency, which had stabilised in the last four months, has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks on increased dollar demand by local traders. It traded at 3.2600 to the dollar on Wednesday, down 2 percent from its level at the start of 2015. BoG to pump in more dollars to keep cedi stableQuote:Governor of the Bank of Ghana Dr. Kofi Wampah has indicated he is prepared to pump in more dollars, if it becomes necessary, to sustain the cedi’s appreciation.
The local currency has appreciated by some 24 percent against the dollar over the past two weeks.
This was mainly due to the central bank’s intervention in the forex market.
The BoG had been pushing in some 20 million dollars daily as a temporary measure to keep the local currency stable. Just some examples on the naira and ghanian cedi. Same script everywhere as CBs struggle with the muscular USD.
If you can't print the USD why waste the precious USD reserves on intervening yet this is not a sustainable cure to your currency weakness?!?
CBs are acting like wanjikus this year trying to fight the USD bull $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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They intervene because they are not independent, and have huge political pressure to defend the local currency. Remember, politicians are usually imbeciles and cannot understand what we are discussing here. Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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KulaRaha wrote:They intervene because they are not independent, and have huge political pressure to defend the local currency. Remember, politicians are usually imbeciles and cannot understand what we are discussing here. This CB is a hedge fund with no downside, to paraphrase warren buffet, a weak dollar is never in their best interests...do a simple arithmetic of how much they've gained on revaluation of their reserves, its more than what safcom made lol, and we are all made to believe that safcom is the most profitable company in the EAC region
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/18/2008 Posts: 3,434 Location: Kerugoya
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Citizens of the Virtual Republic, I am a freelance article writer paid weekly in dollars. Most of my clients come from Northern America, The United Kingdom, India and Asia. Ever since the Kenya Shilling begun it’s descend, I have literally been making more money. In this regard, it is my fervent prayer that not only does this descend go lower but also lasts longer. My biggest costs are food, rent, power and Safaricon internet bundles. The other day, Safaricon was kind enough to reduce this cost by giving me more bundles for fewer Kenya Shillings. Rent out here in Kerugoya is miniscule compared to Nairoberry whereas my power consumption is restricted to powering my laptop computer, music system and three bulbs. Being upcountry, food out here is not only plentiful but also very cheap. I feel I owe this good fortune to The Travel Advisory afflicting our tourism industry. Naturally, the other factors are in play such as our addiction to imports, pathetic export structure, the rise of the American dollar and the anticipated rate rise. Citizens, please help me understand this Travel Advisory Darling. She is making me “rich”. • Who is she? • How is she effected? • What links should I study? • What are the penalties for breaching such an advisory? • Will all those foreigners attending the GES and whose countries have issued the advisories be punished? • Are advisories suspended for the period of the Summit? • Which Government departments are responsible? • Will there be any downside on my part given, my industry, if this shilling descend continues? I repeat, my fellow Citizens, please help me understand this Travel Advisory Sweet Heart. Please. Please.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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muganda wrote:Senate summons new CBK boss over weak shilling and to salvage some of their 'favoured' small banks... next Thursday. Usd/Kes just about 102.24 and the CBK traders can't even take a tea-break; otherwise they may find it back over 103. Meanwhile, the NSE haemorrhages. Why the hate against small banks? Have they eaten your lunch? They are Too Small To Save banks vs the The Too Big To Fail banks. [Taxpayer funds will not be expended in saving TSTS banks] Dubai Bank [smallest bank] is the only one in serious trouble but its closure would affect very few people [plus most banks & depositors don't want to deal with it so have reduced their exposure since 2014] unlike NBK [& Consolidated] which can't meet CBK's minimum Capital Adequacy Ratios but will affect thousands should it be closed. Small(er) banks often give higher rates to savers, possibly lower rates to borrowers and provide a decent [but more personalized] range of services & attention. In a 'connected' [ICT] world, small(er) banks can offer most customers most of what they need e.g. RTGS, LCs, etc. Unless you are Paul Wanderi Ndungu or EABL/BAT/BIDCO the small banks can & do cater to most of us. And Equity was the archetypical 'small' bank 15 years ago. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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aemathenge wrote:Citizens of the Virtual Republic, I am a freelance article writer paid weekly in dollars. Most of my clients come from Northern America, The United Kingdom, India and Asia.
Ever since the Kenya Shilling begun it’s descend, I have literally been making more money. In this regard, it is my fervent prayer that not only does this descend go lower but also lasts longer.
My biggest costs are food, rent, power and Safaricon internet bundles.
The other day, Safaricon was kind enough to reduce this cost by giving me more bundles for fewer Kenya Shillings.
Rent out here in Kerugoya is miniscule compared to Nairoberry whereas my power consumption is restricted to powering my laptop computer, music system and three bulbs.
Being upcountry, food out here is not only plentiful but also very cheap.
I feel I owe this good fortune to The Travel Advisory afflicting our tourism industry. Naturally, the other factors are in play such as our addiction to imports, pathetic export structure, the rise of the American dollar and the anticipated rate rise.
Citizens, please help me understand this Travel Advisory Darling. She is making me “rich”.
• Who is she? • How is she effected? • What links should I study? • What are the penalties for breaching such an advisory? • Will all those foreigners attending the GES and whose countries have issued the advisories be punished? • Are advisories suspended for the period of the Summit? • Which Government departments are responsible? • Will there be any downside on my part given, my industry, if this shilling descend continues?
I repeat, my fellow Citizens, please help me understand this Travel Advisory Sweet Heart. Please. Please.
Keep making hay while the sun shines. The $ is not coming down soon. Not unless a major catastrophe happens. The US economy is strengthening; they have been trying to minimize imports of oil currently thanks to fracking; The capital flight from emerging and frontier markets is making the $$ more scarce. With more investors loosing confidence over the Euro zone, many are opting to shore their money in the US markets. The scarcity is pushing the dollar up. As for the the advisories......let them issue them those who really want to visit will do it. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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And now, here come to press statements that mean nothing. I thought this new guy was smart? Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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