You are in for a shock!!! #WatchThisSpace

That was Kumbaff thinking by WB. We shouldn't take all what WB says as gospel truth. Anyone remember SAPs etc. Obviously someone just has just been posted looked at historical data and wants to prescribe an economics theory solution in situ!

Kenya's current account deficit is a symptom of a structural problem in the economy and that means we will always struggle to grow beyond 5% without inflation going up unless we address this structural weakness. You don't debase a currency to boost exports unless you have goods for export that are disadvantaged in the international markets because of pricing. Debasing a currency is meant to correct the pricing. The last time I checked I did not see Kenyan goods suffering from pricing in the international markets and if the solution is to ensure that whatever little we export adds up in more Kshs after translation that is very stupid economics. You debase the currency you end up with a huge spike in inflation which you must address by raising rates to discourage imports and repair the currency. The problem with that is that most of our imports are essentials, fuel, drugs, steel, machinery,fertilizer cars, spares etc. So we will just pay more for the essentials and consume less of the non essentials and the end result is a slow down in the economy. My thinking is simple, lets start with our competitive advantages in the global space and optimize the value we get here - there is potentially 30% GDP scope awaiting exploitation and all this would be export. Secondly let's look for sectors that sitting with massive pent up demand and move in to address demand here which would in turn create a quantum leap in domestic consumption and push our GDP up without creating unnecessary inflation. Again we are sitting with about 40-50% scope here. The balance of 20-30% would be an offshoot of the expanded GDP. In other words if we applied ourselves smartly we can double Kenya's GDP in 5 - 8yrs.

Oil is far away we are talking 10yrs out. With the craze of clean fuels and innovation who knows oil may not be as worthwhile in 10yrs time (it may cost $ 40 / barrel or less)

The issue hisah has brought up about getting the basic structures up and running is something I find crucial.I prefer we invest now even take a few hits but once we start moving we can sustain growth and fund expansion of capacity without so much burden.

There is also the issue of the US becoming a net exporter of oil.I truly believe Kenya has immense potential but it remains potential until we start applying ourselves like you've said.