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2012 Voter registration November
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:McReggae wrote:2012 wrote:bkismat wrote:
Nairobi 1,548,217 107%
What does 107% mean? Does it mean people who should have registered elsewhere registered in Nairobi or there are more new registered (new IDs etc) voters than was estimated? The target itself was based on an estimation!!!! ...what figures are they using to know the total number of potential voters in a region..lets say nyanza 70% of the guyz have registered,how do they know what 100% is... From the census results, IEBS estimated the number of people elligible to vote in every county, that's how they set their targets!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Registered voters by province and as percentage of total ('000).
Rift Valley - 2,991 - 24%
Nairobi - 1,548 - 12%
Central - 1,976 - 16%
Eastern - 1,694 - 13%
Western - 1,284 - 10%
N. Eastern - 459 - 4%
Nyanza - 1,779 - 14%
Coast - 994 - 8%
TOTAL - 12,724 - 100%
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Estimated voters by communities based on counties ('000)
GEMA - 3,873 - 30%
Luo - 1,740 - 14%
Luhya - 1,614 - 13%
Kalenjin - 1,590 - 12%
Kamba - 1,047 - 8%
Kisii - 710 - 6%
Somali - 691 - 5%
MijiKenda - 644 - 5%
Maasai - 450 - 4%
Others - 366 - 3%
TOTAL - 12,724 - 100%
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/23/2009 Posts: 2,375
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maka wrote:McReggae wrote:2012 wrote:bkismat wrote:
Nairobi 1,548,217 107%
What does 107% mean? Does it mean people who should have registered elsewhere registered in Nairobi or there are more new registered (new IDs etc) voters than was estimated? The target itself was based on an estimation!!!! ...what figures are they using to know the total number of potential voters in a region..lets say nyanza 70% of the guyz have registered,how do they know what 100% is... IEBC looked at the latest census 2009? I think and from that projected the approximate population over 18 years old(Minimum voting age.That is what they are basing the %s on. Nairobi has gone over the estimates. It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt...
-Mark Twain
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Liv wrote:Registered voters by province and as percentage of total ('000).
Rift Valley - 2,991 - 24%
Nairobi - 1,548 - 12%
Central - 1,976 - 16%
Eastern - 1,694 - 13%
Western - 1,284 - 10%
N. Eastern - 459 - 4%
Nyanza - 1,779 - 14%
Coast - 994 - 8%
TOTAL - 12,724 - 100%
Compare the above with the following sample sizes by provinces in the last Ipsos Synovate Polls
Rift Valley - 399 - 25%
Nairobi - 170 - 10%
Central - 213 - 13%
Eastern - 243 - 15%
Western - 166 - 10%
N. Eastern - 77 - 5%
Nyanza - 213 - 13%
Coast - 144 - 9%
TOTAL Sample size - 1,625 - 100%
You will note how skewed their poll results are.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/23/2009 Posts: 2,375
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Liv wrote:Liv wrote:Registered voters by province and as percentage of total ('000).
Rift Valley - 2,991 - 24%
Nairobi - 1,548 - 12%
Central - 1,976 - 16%
Eastern - 1,694 - 13%
Western - 1,284 - 10%
N. Eastern - 459 - 4%
Nyanza - 1,779 - 14%
Coast - 994 - 8%
TOTAL - 12,724 - 100%
Compare the above with the following sample sizes by provinces in the last Ipsos Synovate Polls
Rift Valley - 399 - 25%24%
Nairobi - 170 - 10%12%
Central - 213 - 13%16%
Eastern - 243 - 15%13%
Western - 166 - 10%10%
N. Eastern - 77 - 5%4%
Nyanza - 213 - 13%14%
Coast - 144 - 9%8%
TOTAL Sample size - 1,625 - 100%
You will note how skewed their poll results are. Looks OK It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt...
-Mark Twain
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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Seems people in NE who cannot authenticate their Kenyan-ness have taken cover. They unregistered from this region should be followed up and smoked out and if they prove to be non citizens then returned to Somalia now that there is peace. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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bkismat wrote:
Compare the above with the following sample sizes by provinces in the last Ipsos Synovate Polls
Rift Valley - 399 - 25%24%
Nairobi - 170 - 10%12%
Central - 213 - 13%16%
Eastern - 243 - 15%13%
Western - 166 - 10%10%
N. Eastern - 77 - 5%4%
Nyanza - 213 - 13%14%
Coast - 144 - 9%8%
TOTAL Sample size - 1,625 - 100%
You will note how skewed their poll results are.
Looks OK [/quote] Looks ok to you? I guess you failed in your statistics if you ever came near such a class...lol
e.g. In Central province, Ipsos picked 213 people for the sample (13% of total national sample). That is 49 people less than what should have been picked... if they had used 16% they should have picked 262 instead of 213. That is 23% understatement of the sample size for the region and gives you a skewed total polls result. 23% is what they call significant statistically.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2007 Posts: 1,162
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bkismat wrote:Liv wrote:Liv wrote:Registered voters by province and as percentage of total ('000).
Rift Valley - 2,991 - 24%
Nairobi - 1,548 - 12%
Central - 1,976 - 16%
Eastern - 1,694 - 13%
Western - 1,284 - 10%
N. Eastern - 459 - 4%
Nyanza - 1,779 - 14%
Coast - 994 - 8%
TOTAL - 12,724 - 100%
Compare the above with the following sample sizes by provinces in the last Ipsos Synovate Polls
Rift Valley - 399 - 25%24%
Nairobi - 170 - 10%12%
Central - 213 - 13%16%
Eastern - 243 - 15%13%
Western - 166 - 10%10%
N. Eastern - 77 - 5%4%
Nyanza - 213 - 13%14%
Coast - 144 - 9%8%
TOTAL Sample size - 1,625 - 100%
You will note how skewed their poll results are. Looks OK Looks OK to me also. In fact fairly accurate I say.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Provisional: Total :14,337,399 R Valley:3,373,853 Central:2,190,477 Eastern:2,092,883 Nyanza:1,954,756 Nairobi:1,778,903 Western:1,434,987 Coast:1,164,803 N. Eastern:347,457 ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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