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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Kizee1-Ndungu and his MPC team had put making CBR their primary monetary policy weapon. Not increasing CBR now to further boaster Ksh/inflaion decrease will damage MPC's credibility (if any is remaining). Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Think we may surpass previous 95.10 weak point today. On the 14th, CBK will either put up CBR or be resigned to touching Ksh100. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Kaboom! USDKES @95.40 - 95.10 taken out to register a new post float low... 100 is going to be tested if as @Mainat says if the CBR is not hiked on the 14th. CBK is on the ropes here, they either fight back or throw in the towel... http://www.forexpros.com.../usd-kes-advanced-chart
USDUGX - this one will also test 3000 http://www.forexpros.com.../usd-ugx-advanced-chart But the crown today goes to TZS - has exploded (huge gap up on opening) as the USD knocks it down while taking out all time low of 1632, now trading @1661. From here it is 1700 then 1800. http://www.forexpros.com.../usd-tzs-advanced-chart
And all this is happening before the great dollar squeeze begins in earnest! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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The mean rate has reached 95.50/-
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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CBK throws $s into the mix to prevent $@Ksh96. Given banks are (a) more liquid (b)can't risk lending given several headwinds, how long can CBK compete? Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Mainat wrote:CBK throws $s into the mix to prevent $@Ksh96. Given banks are (a) more liquid (b)can't risk lending given several headwinds, how long can CBK compete? has the CBK made a 2nd intervention? Been away in SADC.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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CDE-yes it did this morning. Distributed $s to select number of dealers (info picked up on twirrer and confirmed by the chart http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes)... Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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a joke of an intervention..these guys need to get a clue
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Rather than CBK waste those dollars on micro interventions, I propose they use these dollars to head to SNB and BoJ for intervention lessons. I think this way the dollars will be better put into use... Even with the bad karma in euroland, ECB had no choice but hiked rates! KE has an inflation rate 3 times above the 5% CBK target and they expect the CBR to remain at single digits. Idiots! Those 4 banks should just bet all in and put sizable shorts on KES positions to force CBK to hike the CBR. If they forgot their inflation control mandate, then someone can push them to a sharp reminder... We don't need prezo statements as a financial instrument. Just hike that damn CBR and let the chips fall into place. Obviously GDP will slowdown whether this is done or not. So why the pretext. What is the benefit so far? Has it made things better?
Hike the CBR and some of us will stop shorting KES.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Hiking interest rates will just trigger a mad rush for bonds and tank equities...NSE is the loser....CBK might have left things too late if you factor in the current Euro Zone crisis even a 200 basis point hike might not help...risk aversion is the new normal http://contrarianinvesti...ial-crisis-of-1997.html On the other hand pray for China to save Europe...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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CBK should hike the rates lets go into bonds, for those of us in business we are feeling the impact of slump, fewer clients, delayed payments not even sure i can retain my staff beyond December, workers want salary hikes at a time when things are thick, this is the season when you start summary dismissals otherwise the business wont survive
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mkonomtupu - Too late to prepare for recession. It is already there as per your description. Plan for extend overdrafts from your bankers. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Rather than CBK waste those dollars on micro interventions, I propose they use these dollars to head to SNB and BoJ for intervention lessons. I think this way the dollars will be better put into use... Even with the bad karma in euroland, ECB had no choice but hiked rates! KE has an inflation rate 3 times above the 5% CBK target and they expect the CBR to remain at single digits. Idiots! Those 4 banks should just bet all in and put sizable shorts on KES positions to force CBK to hike the CBR. If they forgot their inflation control mandate, then someone can push them to a sharp reminder... We don't need prezo statements as a financial instrument. Just hike that damn CBR and let the chips fall into place. Obviously GDP will slowdown whether this is done or not. So why the pretext. What is the benefit so far? Has it made things better?
Hike the CBR and some of us will stop shorting KES.
@hisah. Why are you shorting KES? Speculating or is there something fundamental? If there's a fundamental reason then will the raising of cbr by say 400bps be adequate for you to unwind your position? I think they let the chips fall over the last few weeks and you saw the effect on money markets. That can't be desirable. I agree with you on rising the cbr but not as sharply as most have called for. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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KES has FAR much better economic fundamentals than any Western ccy right now & in the coming 10yrs and more. Its weakening baffles me and I believe that error will be corrected soon. Awaiting to confirm my hunch tomorrow that CBK has been dumping USDs for the Yuan 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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In default we will accept a new KES/USD normal and grow from there the same way we did at 63 then 83. Nevertheless, I firmly believe the label "developing country" is the best status in the world economy, now & going-forward. SSA baby!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:KES has FAR much better economic fundamentals than any Western ccy right now & in the coming 10yrs and more. Its weakening baffles me and I believe that error will be corrected soon. Awaiting to confirm my hunch tomorrow that CBK has been dumping USDs for the Yuan cbk dumping usds? lol! heck they dont even have jpy in their basket! proff u dont even know wat ccys ur blotter contains
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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Scubidu wrote:hisah wrote:Rather than CBK waste those dollars on micro interventions, I propose they use these dollars to head to SNB and BoJ for intervention lessons. I think this way the dollars will be better put into use... Even with the bad karma in euroland, ECB had no choice but hiked rates! KE has an inflation rate 3 times above the 5% CBK target and they expect the CBR to remain at single digits. Idiots! Those 4 banks should just bet all in and put sizable shorts on KES positions to force CBK to hike the CBR. If they forgot their inflation control mandate, then someone can push them to a sharp reminder... We don't need prezo statements as a financial instrument. Just hike that damn CBR and let the chips fall into place. Obviously GDP will slowdown whether this is done or not. So why the pretext. What is the benefit so far? Has it made things better?
Hike the CBR and some of us will stop shorting KES.
@hisah. Why are you shorting KES? Speculating or is there something fundamental? If there's a fundamental reason then will the raising of cbr by say 400bps be adequate for you to unwind your position? I think they let the chips fall over the last few weeks and you saw the effect on money markets. That can't be desirable. I agree with you on rising the cbr but not as sharply as most have called for. i have been short kes since june, the 2 times i was long kes i made money for 2 sessions and lost money in seven...the weakness is structural and will take time to resolve, and knowin how kenyans never adress matters with a long term view we are headed for yet weaker lvls
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Wazua
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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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