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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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Sober
#671 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 10:13:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
mlennyma wrote:
Analysts are saying stocks have bottomed but am telling them their guess is just like mine not yet i need more blood.


when the index hit 3500 i though we were there only to be surprised by a new low. i am now confused and treat every week as a lowest. look at Total Kenya or Pan Africa and you understand what i am saying.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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the deal
#672 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 11:07:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
To support my Safaricom bellweather theory...last time the NSE bottomed out was Jan 2009...the index was at 2300...Safaricom was at 2.53...the index then gained 1200 points to reach 3500 by October 2010...Safcom was at 5.95...the share seemed to peak at that level although the bourse went on to rally above 4000, the weakness in the momentum was there to see...if u remember there was a mini bear come Nov-Dec this was followed by a sharp rally in January where the NSE picked at 4600...Safaricom was at 4.70...since then Safaricom and NSE has never seen those levels again...so depending where Safaricom's out in the next few month or years thats where the NSE will bottom out...my 2 cents..

@Thedeal is it a case of safcom following the mkt, or the mkt following safcom?

Safcon is the trendsettersmile smile
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Cde Monomotapa
#673 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 11:53:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
A touch of sub 10 @KK. Any takers?
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Muthawamunene
#674 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:23:56 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
thentum?? ekwe tee??
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JabaBoeku
#675 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:25:39 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/28/2008
Posts: 53
Safcon is the trendsetter!

I concur.
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QW25081985
#676 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:35:51 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
Sober wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Analysts are saying stocks have bottomed but am telling them their guess is just like mine not yet i need more blood.


when the index hit 3500 i though we were there only to be surprised by a new low. i am now confused and treat every week as a lowest. look at Total Kenya or Pan Africa and you understand what i am saying.


@ sober . you just made my ay , lol . you want to tell me everyday you wake up you think we will bottom , lol . You need to learn even if alittle bit of technical analysis . You are investing thousands upon thousand of you hard earned money in the market and you dare guess !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. No pun intended but thats pretty much careless investing !!!!
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QW25081985
#677 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:37:34 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
the deal wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
To support my Safaricom bellweather theory...last time the NSE bottomed out was Jan 2009...the index was at 2300...Safaricom was at 2.53...the index then gained 1200 points to reach 3500 by October 2010...Safcom was at 5.95...the share seemed to peak at that level although the bourse went on to rally above 4000, the weakness in the momentum was there to see...if u remember there was a mini bear come Nov-Dec this was followed by a sharp rally in January where the NSE picked at 4600...Safaricom was at 4.70...since then Safaricom and NSE has never seen those levels again...so depending where Safaricom's out in the next few month or years thats where the NSE will bottom out...my 2 cents..

@Thedeal is it a case of safcom following the mkt, or the mkt following safcom?

Safcon is the trendsettersmile smile


why just safaricom ??? all stocks that are traded heavily by foreigners are good trendsetters .
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QW25081985
#678 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:54:50 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
hisah wrote:
@QW - finally AK prints 5.45. As expected that order @5.55 has been filled. Lower we go and I expect the order @5.30 to get filled.

@youcant - KCB closes below 19.50. Uptrend line broken! 18 coming soon... At least NSE can be said to have a target @3000, but NBK... Yawa! This one's hard to say if we are still in the sky and how high!

Centum still on a free-fall - I wonder what's with the spooking move...

SCB - finally sub 200... but the sista BBK has been hammered more.

Ekwety @18 - still no breaks.

HFCK - @15.65 still on freefall (almost 50%) dive from the 2011 high.

Coop - finally sub 14. Next stop 12... Banks and their cousins investment firms are taking it in the chin...

KK - as @aguy said closed @10 with a low of 9.80... people are still waiting for this counter to remain bullish smile profits were long take @12. I stated this when I started this thread. I expected total to bounce on the rotation, but Mr Market was spooked by the US downgrade. However, I expect total to bounce more than KK when the rebound comes since it is excessively sold than KK.

KPLC - @18.40 - well below the rights price @19.50

Olympia - soon to join mpesa at 2-3 range...

Speaking of mpesa, today there was a giant volume injection (88M). In 2 days the volume now stands at 122M. This one is building a floor... I don't think such volume is last minute dash for dividends book closure. Very limited downside here. I'd be shocked to see 2.50 broken. Though a break would be welcome.

TA fans check the long term SMA's clustering together, if that 50SMA cross the 200SMA, kwisha - cross of death i.e. very bearish... But the RSI is very oversold.

Interesting to note that the French index (CAC) is almost like NSE in terms of the SMA clustering...

9 months NSE chart - courtesy mystocks.co.ke

http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=%5EN20I




No no no no . let me correct you there . Co-ops next stop is ipo price of 9.50 with the break of 14.00 thats how bearish it is. i amnt moved by safaricom before book closure if this buying is real lets wait and see if it'll be there after book closure.
Equity still has to print my 13.00 price they will buy to lock in the bargain..
as for access kenya i was targeting 3.00 but with volumes of even 10k per day my dream isnt coming.
for KK a close below 10.00 anything goes even those who are calling for 8.00 might get it ..
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vestor
#679 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:33:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/9/2010
Posts: 132
If M-PESA is a trendsetter, are we about to turn around or is this the lull before a storm ? There are no offers on this counter, and the highest bid is at 3.20
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QW25081985
#680 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:35:30 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
vestor wrote:
If M-PESA is a trendsetter, are we about to turn around or is this the lull before a storm ? There are no offers on this counter, and the highest bid is at 3.20


think book closure , my friend .
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