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Kenya airways Right Issue
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VituVingiSana
#661 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 5:12:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
I was looking at some tweets for MindSpeak where Titus Naikuni was the guest speaker and there was all this 'feel good' stuff about KQ's growth but then a firm will grow if you throw money [capital/equity and debt] at it. What counts is profits or future profitability.

When one takes KQ since 1996, you realize there has been little growth in NAV after 17 years. An investor who bought KQ at 11.25 will get only 13 [+ sporadic dividends] after 17 years. This is little better than putting the cash under the mattress.

Which also brings me to my next point and my post http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...px?g=posts&m=420926 Expensive Mistakes or an Education?

I will avoid shares in firms whose Board Members & Management have no significant ownership stake. And KQ was one of them where the 'buy in' from the staff, board and management was close to NIL.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, January 26, 2014 6:18 AM | Reason: Not specified
kigophilipe
#662 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 5:48:41 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 5/21/2012
Posts: 4
Good point @VituVingiSana the management has to be part of the significant ownership stake to have an incentive to make shareholders happy. Otherwise they will just want to increase salaries and debt.
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obiero
#663 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 7:23:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
@vvs have you been sent?

KQ ABP 4.26
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Boris Boyka
#664 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 3:54:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
the bird will fly higher if not that high it'll lay golden eggs if not it'll lay Quail eggs; it's a quail. @obiero we're rearing the birds we'll sell @vvs the eggs, waiting patiently.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Aguytrying
#665 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 6:17:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
nice post mortem.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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erifloss
#666 Posted : Tuesday, January 28, 2014 6:04:33 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
@VVS, true. One only understands value addition and wealth creation when they have a sense of ownership and this can only come through real ownership. The other company that i have an issue with on this particular issue due to the magnitude of its balance sheet is KCB.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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ecstacy
#667 Posted : Tuesday, January 28, 2014 6:20:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
Guys, at current prices and ahead of earnings season, who would you rather gamble on? KQ, Mumias or HomeAfrika? :)
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MaichBlack
#668 Posted : Tuesday, January 28, 2014 8:01:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,837
ecstacy wrote:
Guys, at current prices and ahead of earnings season, who would you rather gamble on? KQ, Mumias or HomeAfrika? :)

I've already placed my bets on Mumias!

I'm also going to buy KQ - sub ten. I never took up my rights because I knew the price would head south. The last time it went to sub 10 level I didn't pull the trigger because it looked like it could fall further. This time round I'll start buying at 9.99. I need to finally get my rights [at a further discount]. Of course I can always walk away and take my money elsewhere but I choose not to. If I buy sub 10, I'll still make money off this thing! But it will need patience! I'm one hell of a patient man - probably picked up from watching too much "Big Cat Diaries" and the like - just watch a big cat [lion etc.] hunting! You'll learn alot - patience, strategy, be willing to take the longer route - may be because of the wind direction that might make the prey get your scent, choose your target carefully, stick with it - run after it while overtaking the ones that appear closer/easier.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#669 Posted : Tuesday, January 28, 2014 8:15:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,837
Having said that, I have gems in my portfolio that are making me smile from ear to ear. Mumias, Kenya Power, KQ [at the right price], Kengen [Waiting for it to come back to 11/= levels] are long term plays - which might put my money in parking for a while. But I'm okay with that - time value of money notwithstanding.

Hellos and guests beware. Have some 'sure' stocks before you start playing Russian Roulette with me! I'm one patient fellow - with balls of steel!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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mwekez@ji
#670 Posted : Tuesday, January 28, 2014 8:16:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
MaichBlack wrote:
ecstacy wrote:
Guys, at current prices and ahead of earnings season, who would you rather gamble on? KQ, Mumias or HomeAfrika? :)

I've already placed my bets on Mumias!

I'm also going to buy KQ - sub ten. I never took up my rights because I knew the price would head south. The last time it went to sub 10 level I didn't pull the trigger because it looked like it could fall further. This time round I'll start buying at 9.99. I need to finally get my rights [at a further discount]. Of course I can always walk away and take my money elsewhere but I choose not to. If I buy sub 10, I'll still make money off this thing! But it will need patience! I'm one hell of a patient man - probably picked up from watching to much big cat diaries and the like - just watch a big cat [lion etc.] hunting! You'll learn alot - patience, strategy, be willing to take the longer route - may be because of the wind direction that might make the prey get your scent, choose your target carefully, stick with it - run after it while overtaking the ones that appear closer/easier.


I second Mumias. Buy from current price all the way to new all time lows ... KQ will be interesting if it can break down 8 ... Home Afrika if it can breakdown to 4 ... IMHO
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