Bigchick wrote:FRM2011 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Its 60 days to the election. Mine is an appeal to Jubilee supporters specifically those like me from the house of mumbi.
We are getting worried. Most of us might have missed @masukuma's post about possible hotspots should NASA win.
Please please please, help us to manage expectations.
Open an excel sheet. List the 47 counties like @harrydre did. Use turnout figures for 2013 or whatever you think is realistic. You can use the voting trends in 2013 as a guide or decide for yourself how different counties will vote. Try as many what-if scenarios as possible.
Then look at the figures. Don't share with us. Talk to your folks upcountry. Let them be ready for the inevitable.
Should you need any raw data, drop an e-mail.
And why are our people in Eldoret getting into a face-off with Mandago ? I was going through the Uasin-gishu county forum FB page and the comments are taking an ugly tribal angle.
What makes you think we do not have it?As you work on yours so are we and the picture is quite good.Actually what we want is a win that even Babu Joshua will be ashamed trying to take to the Supreme Court.
As usual we await the final cleaned raw data of registered voters.So far mine tells me we are dealing with a 53.5%(9.1M) win for Jubilee Vs 43.5%(7.9) loss for NASWA.An absolute figures margin of 1.2M.We want to push this to 2M absolute figures and percentage to 58%-60%.
Because if you had, then you would know what I am talking about. But let me go with you.
Assuming 95% turnout, the 5 central counties give 2.5M. When we add the 8 north rift, Nakuru, Laikipia, Meru, Embu, Tharaka, Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera and Wajir, the total figure inakatalia 6.2M. Add 1M for Nairobi.
I know if I keep repeating this over and over, someone here will be forced to open their excel. And soon they will start accepting reality. And we don't have to worry about post-election tensions.