Wazua
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KCB buy buy buy
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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Horton wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too? @horton useless gut feelings by people like @vvs are prevalent.. Simba is strong
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too? One doesn't need to own 50%+1 shares of a firm to control it as long as you have enough shares or voting power to outvote the others. Think Vodafone in Safaricom. Then there's the question of significant influence. Even the IAS/IFRS acknowledges that 25% offers significant influence and more so if you are the largest shareholder. KCB has consistently understated its LLPs (above the line vs below the line) when using CBK's methodology. My first port of call is always the Disclosures. I may be wrong but let's see what happens. Do note that KCB remains a TBTF bank so GoK/CBK will always step in. On KQ, I made an error and ignored signs of management cooking the books. When I realized the cooking, I started selling out. The Rights Issue was the final straw. For KCB, the Scrip Dividend made no sense. Why pay a cash dividend when it needed cash. KCB raised very little from the Scrip Dividend but it cost a lot to go through with it. James Mwangi has a stake worth billions in Equity that he wishes to protect. Naikuni & KQ's Board (except GoK but not its appointees) had an almost zero stake in KQ. They wanted perks & bonuses. Even Segman had options not shares in KK. They started making decisions to boost profits by any means possible. Gambling. What does Oigara make annually? What's his stake in KCB worth? Is his bonus based on sustainable profitability or just current profits which can be manipulated in the short-term? Again, I may be wrong but post-Naikuni & post-Segman, I find skepticism, research & introspection helpful in avoiding losses. Good luck! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too? One doesn't need to own 50%+1 shares of a firm to control it as long as you have enough shares or voting power to outvote the others. Think Vodafone in Safaricom. Then there's the question of significant influence. Even the IAS/IFRS acknowledges that 25% offers significant influence and more so if you are the largest shareholder. KCB has consistently understated its LLPs (above the line vs below the line) when using CBK's methodology. My first port of call is always the Disclosures. I may be wrong but let's see what happens. Do note that KCB remains a TBTF bank so GoK/CBK will always step in. On KQ, I made an error and ignored signs of management cooking the books. When I realized the cooking, I started selling out. The Rights Issue was the final straw. For KCB, the Scrip Dividend made no sense. Why pay a cash dividend when it needed cash. KCB raised very little from the Scrip Dividend but it cost a lot to go through with it. James Mwangi has a stake worth billions in Equity that he wishes to protect. Naikuni & KQ's Board (except GoK but not its appointees) had an almost zero stake in KQ. They wanted perks & bonuses. Even Segman had options not shares in KK. They started making decisions to boost profits by any means possible. Gambling. What does Oigara make annually? What's his stake in KCB worth? Is his bonus based on sustainable profitability or just current profits which can be manipulated in the short-term? Again, I may be wrong but post-Naikuni & post-Segman, I find skepticism, research & introspection helpful in avoiding losses. Good luck! @wazuans it is such thinking that keeps Africans poor.. Ghost chases and petrified investing
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too? One doesn't need to own 50%+1 shares of a firm to control it as long as you have enough shares or voting power to outvote the others. Think Vodafone in Safaricom. Then there's the question of significant influence. Even the IAS/IFRS acknowledges that 25% offers significant influence and more so if you are the largest shareholder. KCB has consistently understated its LLPs (above the line vs below the line) when using CBK's methodology. My first port of call is always the Disclosures. I may be wrong but let's see what happens. Do note that KCB remains a TBTF bank so GoK/CBK will always step in. On KQ, I made an error and ignored signs of management cooking the books. When I realized the cooking, I started selling out. The Rights Issue was the final straw. For KCB, the Scrip Dividend made no sense. Why pay a cash dividend when it needed cash. KCB raised very little from the Scrip Dividend but it cost a lot to go through with it. James Mwangi has a stake worth billions in Equity that he wishes to protect. Naikuni & KQ's Board (except GoK but not its appointees) had an almost zero stake in KQ. They wanted perks & bonuses. Even Segman had options not shares in KK. They started making decisions to boost profits by any means possible. Gambling. What does Oigara make annually? What's his stake in KCB worth? Is his bonus based on sustainable profitability or just current profits which can be manipulated in the short-term? Again, I may be wrong but post-Naikuni & post-Segman, I find skepticism, research & introspection helpful in avoiding losses. Good luck! @VVS You really hate KCB.I don't know what wrong it did to you. Secondly KCB has beaten Equity Bank pants down;James Mwangi has been unable to overtake KCB in terms of PBT and reasons without basis will always be given that oohh KCB cooked books better than Equity. One thing that's a fact is that pre-rate cap KCB loans were always cheaper than equity;Equity now feeling the heat. Do you think James Mwangi is managing the bank for the best interests of the shareholders.I don't think so;otherwise why did he start an unnecessary war with safaricom.Ego issues have come to cost him. During the release of FY2016 results I never heard him mention anything about Equitel. That tells the story. He went to DRC without doing proper maths;now DRC is bleeding money Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too? One doesn't need to own 50%+1 shares of a firm to control it as long as you have enough shares or voting power to outvote the others. Think Vodafone in Safaricom. Then there's the question of significant influence. Even the IAS/IFRS acknowledges that 25% offers significant influence and more so if you are the largest shareholder. KCB has consistently understated its LLPs (above the line vs below the line) when using CBK's methodology. My first port of call is always the Disclosures. I may be wrong but let's see what happens. Do note that KCB remains a TBTF bank so GoK/CBK will always step in. On KQ, I made an error and ignored signs of management cooking the books. When I realized the cooking, I started selling out. The Rights Issue was the final straw. For KCB, the Scrip Dividend made no sense. Why pay a cash dividend when it needed cash. KCB raised very little from the Scrip Dividend but it cost a lot to go through with it. James Mwangi has a stake worth billions in Equity that he wishes to protect. Naikuni & KQ's Board (except GoK but not its appointees) had an almost zero stake in KQ. They wanted perks & bonuses. Even Segman had options not shares in KK. They started making decisions to boost profits by any means possible. Gambling. What does Oigara make annually? What's his stake in KCB worth? Is his bonus based on sustainable profitability or just current profits which can be manipulated in the short-term? Again, I may be wrong but post-Naikuni & post-Segman, I find skepticism, research & introspection helpful in avoiding losses. Good luck! @wazuans it is such thinking that keeps Africans poor.. Ghost chases and petrified investing Today I have discovered why @ Obiero and @ vvs differ greatly. One is a trader and the other is an investor. Traders concentrate on TA while investors spearhead FA ideology. But their perspectives are both valid coz each intent is satisfied. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too? One doesn't need to own 50%+1 shares of a firm to control it as long as you have enough shares or voting power to outvote the others. Think Vodafone in Safaricom. Then there's the question of significant influence. Even the IAS/IFRS acknowledges that 25% offers significant influence and more so if you are the largest shareholder. KCB has consistently understated its LLPs (above the line vs below the line) when using CBK's methodology. My first port of call is always the Disclosures. I may be wrong but let's see what happens. Do note that KCB remains a TBTF bank so GoK/CBK will always step in. On KQ, I made an error and ignored signs of management cooking the books. When I realized the cooking, I started selling out. The Rights Issue was the final straw. For KCB, the Scrip Dividend made no sense. Why pay a cash dividend when it needed cash. KCB raised very little from the Scrip Dividend but it cost a lot to go through with it. James Mwangi has a stake worth billions in Equity that he wishes to protect. Naikuni & KQ's Board (except GoK but not its appointees) had an almost zero stake in KQ. They wanted perks & bonuses. Even Segman had options not shares in KK. They started making decisions to boost profits by any means possible. Gambling. What does Oigara make annually? What's his stake in KCB worth? Is his bonus based on sustainable profitability or just current profits which can be manipulated in the short-term? Again, I may be wrong but post-Naikuni & post-Segman, I find skepticism, research & introspection helpful in avoiding losses. Good luck! @VVS You really hate KCB.I don't know what wrong it did to you. Secondly KCB has beaten Equity Bank pants down;James Mwangi has been unable to overtake KCB in terms of PBT and reasons without basis will always be given that oohh KCB cooked books better than Equity. One thing that's a fact is that pre-rate cap KCB loans were always cheaper than equity;Equity now feeling the heat. Do you think James Mwangi is managing the bank for the best interests of the shareholders.I don't think so;otherwise why did he start an unnecessary war with safaricom.Ego issues have come to cost him. During the release of FY2016 results I never heard him mention anything about Equitel. That tells the story. He went to DRC without doing proper maths;now DRC is bleeding money Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too? One doesn't need to own 50%+1 shares of a firm to control it as long as you have enough shares or voting power to outvote the others. Think Vodafone in Safaricom. Then there's the question of significant influence. Even the IAS/IFRS acknowledges that 25% offers significant influence and more so if you are the largest shareholder. KCB has consistently understated its LLPs (above the line vs below the line) when using CBK's methodology. My first port of call is always the Disclosures. I may be wrong but let's see what happens. Do note that KCB remains a TBTF bank so GoK/CBK will always step in. On KQ, I made an error and ignored signs of management cooking the books. When I realized the cooking, I started selling out. The Rights Issue was the final straw. For KCB, the Scrip Dividend made no sense. Why pay a cash dividend when it needed cash. KCB raised very little from the Scrip Dividend but it cost a lot to go through with it. James Mwangi has a stake worth billions in Equity that he wishes to protect. Naikuni & KQ's Board (except GoK but not its appointees) had an almost zero stake in KQ. They wanted perks & bonuses. Even Segman had options not shares in KK. They started making decisions to boost profits by any means possible. Gambling. What does Oigara make annually? What's his stake in KCB worth? Is his bonus based on sustainable profitability or just current profits which can be manipulated in the short-term? Again, I may be wrong but post-Naikuni & post-Segman, I find skepticism, research & introspection helpful in avoiding losses. Good luck! I fully agree with @vvs. Control= 1. 50%+1 vote in any meeting 2. Appointing majority directors in Agm 3. Ability to influence majority knq decisions made in any meeting eg KLM at knq Hiyo ingine ni porojo tupu. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:hisah wrote:Equity and KCB in a tight race to the bottom  These two will lock in several traders. I may as well brand them the dynamic duos. Will be in teens soon What we are seeing right now are known as once in a lifetime opportunities Monday January 30th.. In less than 2 months, a reasonable leap has set in.. Wale wa KES 15 per share can wait a little longer
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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The lion left "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Here comes the 33 handle test. Quite impressive! Support at 23-25 level has formed a floor. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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KCB buy buy buy
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