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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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mwekez@ji
#591 Posted : Thursday, January 19, 2012 2:14:20 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
drake wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
That $600M is expected this moon.


Any idea which foriegn banks are involved in this?

Goldman, JP Morgan, Deustche, Barclays PLC

Goldman squid & JP Morgue give me the creeps. I hope that loan deal fails. Better IMF if we have to choose the devils...

Biacara ni biacara smile


Let me murk these rumors....

1. Loan has NOT yet been finalized, but probably (unless Treasury play hardball) will be by COB today

2. Goldman, Jp Morgan, Barclays, Deutsche?.... Not even close bro... but once the info gets out, there is one player that may surprise...

3. Pricing: Not that bad for a country with a 'B' and BB-(T&C) rating..




Kenya poised to mandate trio for $600 mln loan

http://af.reuters.com/article/i...ws/idAFJOE80G09120120117
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Cde Monomotapa
#592 Posted : Thursday, January 19, 2012 5:04:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mwekez@ji wrote:
drake wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
That $600M is expected this moon.


Any idea which foriegn banks are involved in this?

Goldman, JP Morgan, Deustche, Barclays PLC

Goldman squid & JP Morgue give me the creeps. I hope that loan deal fails. Better IMF if we have to choose the devils...

Biacara ni biacara smile


Let me murk these rumors....

1. Loan has NOT yet been finalized, but probably (unless Treasury play hardball) will be by COB today

2. Goldman, Jp Morgan, Barclays, Deutsche?.... Not even close bro... but once the info gets out, there is one player that may surprise...

3. Pricing: Not that bad for a country with a 'B' and BB-(T&C) rating..




Kenya poised to mandate trio for $600 mln loan

http://af.reuters.com/article/i...ws/idAFJOE80G09120120117

My apologies. I relied a 100% on BD's article of last yr which had a dozen 1/2 truths atleast smile
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hisah
#593 Posted : Saturday, January 28, 2012 2:46:18 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Kenyan Shilling May Fall to 92 Per Dollar, Renaissance Says.

http://www.bloomberg.com...enaissance-says-1-.html

Well, if the FX controls are removed, 92 is a very fair figure!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#594 Posted : Sunday, January 29, 2012 2:52:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Accusations continue...

http://www.nation.co.ke/...48/-/heh6ij/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Scubidu
#595 Posted : Monday, January 30, 2012 8:11:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Kenya current account deficit ended 2011 at $4.48 billion from $2.51 billion a year earlier. Overall BOP is still negative at -$51 million versus $163 million 12 months ago. Whenever a trade deficit widens foreign debt must be accumulated to maintain the balance.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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hisah
#596 Posted : Monday, January 30, 2012 8:33:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
Kenya current account deficit ended 2011 at $4.48 billion from $2.51 billion a year earlier. Overall BOP is still negative at -$51 million versus $163 million 12 months ago. Whenever a trade deficit widens foreign debt must be accumulated to maintain the balance.

78% up!? $600M will not be enough to see gok avoid borrowing from the domestic market. CBK will also be forced to hold on to those forex controls esp if they announce lowering of CBR.

Balancing the 2012 budget will be a headache affair - KDF, elections funds etc.

I'll keep an eye on that inverted yield curve to judge the distress...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, January 30, 2012 8:37 AM | Reason: Not specified
Scubidu
#597 Posted : Tuesday, January 31, 2012 8:11:43 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Kenya current account deficit ended 2011 at $4.48 billion from $2.51 billion a year earlier. Overall BOP is still negative at -$51 million versus $163 million 12 months ago. Whenever a trade deficit widens foreign debt must be accumulated to maintain the balance.

78% up!? $600M will not be enough to see gok avoid borrowing from the domestic market. CBK will also be forced to hold on to those forex controls esp if they announce lowering of CBR.

Balancing the 2012 budget will be a headache affair - KDF, elections funds etc.

I'll keep an eye on that inverted yield curve to judge the distress...


@hisah. Balanced budget... not likely. Treasury has to pay 133 billion in local ccys debt in addition to 77 billion in new borrowing. That's a total of 210 billion. Just how will they do this? Means that something will have to give... expenditure or higher taxes.

Let's go through the BOP equation (y/y growth):

CURRENT ACCOUNT (+79%)
MERCHANDISE ACCOUNT (+26%)
Exports (+10%)
Imports (+19%)
SERVICES (-2%)

CAPITAL ACCOUNT (+66%)
SHORT TERM FLOW & ERRORS (+105%)
Short term flows (+49%)
Errors (+180%)

FINANCING (-131%)
Increase in Kenya reserves (+16%)
IMF (+242%)

OVERALL BALANCE (-131%)

Imports grew at twice the rate of exports and this is not good when considering that imports are 2.5x higher than exports in value. The capital account is keeping us afloat but only because of errors (CB can't account for). IMF has been our saving grace in financing our import bill cos as you can see the cost of consumption and intensive investment is a paltry 16% rise in savings.

“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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hisah
#598 Posted : Tuesday, January 31, 2012 8:56:26 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Kenya current account deficit ended 2011 at $4.48 billion from $2.51 billion a year earlier. Overall BOP is still negative at -$51 million versus $163 million 12 months ago. Whenever a trade deficit widens foreign debt must be accumulated to maintain the balance.

78% up!? $600M will not be enough to see gok avoid borrowing from the domestic market. CBK will also be forced to hold on to those forex controls esp if they announce lowering of CBR.

Balancing the 2012 budget will be a headache affair - KDF, elections funds etc.

I'll keep an eye on that inverted yield curve to judge the distress...


@hisah. Balanced budget... not likely. Treasury has to pay 133 billion in local ccys debt in addition to 77 billion in new borrowing. That's a total of 210 billion. Just how will they do this? Means that something will have to give... expenditure or higher taxes.

Let's go through the BOP equation (y/y growth):

CURRENT ACCOUNT (+79%)
MERCHANDISE ACCOUNT (+26%)
Exports (+10%)
Imports (+19%)
SERVICES (-2%)

CAPITAL ACCOUNT (+66%)
SHORT TERM FLOW & ERRORS (+105%)
Short term flows (+49%)
Errors (+180%)

FINANCING (-131%)
Increase in Kenya reserves (+16%)
IMF (+242%)

OVERALL BALANCE (-131%)

Imports grew at twice the rate of exports and this is not good when considering that imports are 2.5x higher than exports in value. The capital account is keeping us afloat but only because of errors (CB can't account for). IMF has been our saving grace in financing our import bill cos as you can see the cost of consumption and intensive investment is a paltry 16% rise in savings.


You've just managed to mess my afternoon with this breakdown... Sick
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 31, 2012 8:58 AM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#599 Posted : Tuesday, January 31, 2012 1:45:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery

Time for CBK to Cut Rates

Kenya's monetary policy committee (MPC) meets on Wednesday to assess the impact of last months meeting on the economy ,a meeting in which the MPC left the Central Bank Rate (CBR) unchanged at 18%, the move was solely aimed at adding more impetus to the Shilling's recovery. The currency for East Africa's largest economy's rapid depreciation in 2011 was blamed for Kenya's runaway inflation which clocked 19.7% in November 2011. The Shilling has gained more than 19% since making a string of all time low's last year against the green back, last time I checked it was trading at 84.7 against the US Dollar (USD) but the economy has been a victim of MPC's contraction monetary policy.

Read more on this link http://contrarianinvesti...ime-for-cbk-to-cut-rates
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Mainat
#600 Posted : Tuesday, January 31, 2012 3:49:31 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Mainat wrote:
I see two scenarios on Ksh for the rest of the year. The key I think is whether GoK is able to raise the $600m it was looking for.
If its able to, come Feb or March, CBK will start reducing CBR to avoid risk of an actual recession and generally relaxing the exchange controls/interventions. With oil spiking upwards, I'd expect Ksh to go towards an equilibrium of Ksh90-95. Assuming no further daily sales from CBK of $.

If GoK only raises a portion of the $600m, CBK will still have to ease int rates. However, there will now appear a gap between CBR and t-bill coupon. Ksh will then float juu ya Ksh100 with or without CBK support.


Kulahepi- i think Q3 vs Q4 will be more relevant. Also, are these new loans or revolving credits?



Option A is the in the money position. Those chasing tbills, ze party is ofa
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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