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My Picks for 2014
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S.Mutaga III
#51 Posted : Wednesday, September 24, 2014 8:06:15 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
VituVingiSana wrote:
littledove wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters.

@S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch
Nyammo? Check out his history.

The numbers say otherwise. There is no way that a company can record a 79% jump in half year profits and a flat Q3 and you convince me that something TERRIBLE did not happen in the third quarter. No matter what the story is, as soon as it hits sweet 16, I am out.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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littledove
#52 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 9:50:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
littledove wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters.

@S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch

whats the material announcement? i see the price jump more than 10% with very high demand
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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jawgey
#53 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 10:02:13 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 398
Location: Denmark
S.Mutaga III wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
littledove wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters.

@S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch
Nyammo? Check out his history.

The numbers say otherwise. There is no way that a company can record a 79% jump in half year profits and a flat Q3 and you convince me that something TERRIBLE did not happen in the third quarter. No matter what the story is, as soon as it hits sweet 16, I am out.


It's at 19bob now..
Seeing is believing
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S.Mutaga III
#54 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 11:27:13 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS).
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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S.Mutaga III
#55 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 11:28:59 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Liberty and Longhorn are surely doing some justice to my portfolio...waiting for CFC stanbic now:)) Happy Hunting
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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MaichBlack
#56 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 12:22:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,837
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS).

23/= now!!! You are in the money.

That's 53% returns for you before commissions!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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muganda
#57 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 12:28:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
MaichBlack wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS).

23/= now!!! You are in the money.

That's 53% returns for you before commissions!

Fair turn of fortune. I must wonder whether there's a case for covering and saying adieu.

I'm reminded once again of the second principle from the Amsterdam Exchange of 1688: Take every gain without showing remorse about missed profits, because an eel may escape sooner than you think.
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S.Mutaga III
#58 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 12:35:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
muganda wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS).

23/= now!!! You are in the money.

That's 53% returns for you before commissions!

Fair turn of fortune. I must wonder whether there's a case for covering and saying adieu.

I'm reminded once again of the second principle from the Amsterdam Exchange of 1688: Take every gain without showing remorse about missed profits, because an eel may escape sooner than you think.

Sometimes it pays to change your mind...I had already made up my mind to sell at any price above 16 bob...yesterday it was trading around 15...so when it hit 16, I thought of selling but then I realized it was a 10.63% increase which hinted a material announcement...so I had to know about the announcement before selling...and alas!!I will forget about this share now for a while and focus on my other two picks.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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S.Mutaga III
#59 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 6:35:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Below is an update of the one year long investment journey that I began in 2014:
1st Phase
Pan Africa (40% of portfolio)= Return on investment 49.44%
HFCK (30% of portfolio)= Return on investment 40.76%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (20% of portfolio) = Return on investment 44.63%
Cash (10% of portfolio)= Return on investment 0%
Total Aggregate Gain after Phase 1 = 40.93% Return on investment

All counters were sold off after the 1st phase. Assuming an arbitrary figure of 100,000Ksh as starting capital, the first phase would have yielded Ksh 40,930 in seven months and the starting capital of the next phase would be Ksh 140,930.
Phase 2
Longhorn Publishers (40% of portfolio) = Return on investment 35.22%
Liberty Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment 27.93%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment (1.54%)
Return on investment of phase 2 so far = 22.12%

TOTAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT FROM JANUARY = 72.08%
The Index has risen about 6% since January...thus, my portfolio has outperformed the nse 20 share index by a factor of 12 for a period of almost 9 months.
With an arbitrary value of Ksh 100,000, my portfolio should read Ksh 172,080 before transaction expenses. The gain is derived from both phases with returns from phase one also being used as starting capital for phase 2.
Going Forward:
Longhorn Publishers:- Having made a surprising announcement of a Ksh 1.20 final dividend and a bonus issue of 3 shares for every 2 shares held, I am forced to hold on as I await better prices before the books close later on in the year. In the meantime, I expect the counter to rally hard to reflect the bonus issue in full upon when I will make my decision whether to sell or hold on.
Liberty :- This counter is now beyong my buying threshold and not yet near my target. I am forced to wait as there is no material announcement.
CfC Stanbic Holdings:- This counter has experienced a lot of resistance around the Ksh 120-135 region. Since I have no idle cash at the moment, I have no choice but to wait. I will load more below Ksh 130 if I get more cash or realize any gains from other counters.

#Happy Investing 2014#
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, September 26, 2014 6:43 PM | Reason: Not specified
icecube
#60 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 8:29:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/2/2008
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Below is an update of the one year long investment journey that I began in 2014:
1st Phase
Pan Africa (40% of portfolio)= Return on investment 49.44%
HFCK (30% of portfolio)= Return on investment 40.76%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (20% of portfolio) = Return on investment 44.63%
Cash (10% of portfolio)= Return on investment 0%
Total Aggregate Gain after Phase 1 = 40.93% Return on investment

All counters were sold off after the 1st phase. Assuming an arbitrary figure of 100,000Ksh as starting capital, the first phase would have yielded Ksh 40,930 in seven months and the starting capital of the next phase would be Ksh 140,930.
Phase 2
Longhorn Publishers (40% of portfolio) = Return on investment 35.22%
Liberty Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment 27.93%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment (1.54%)
Return on investment of phase 2 so far = 22.12%

TOTAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT FROM JANUARY = 72.08%
The Index has risen about 6% since January...thus, my portfolio has outperformed the nse 20 share index by a factor of 12 for a period of almost 9 months.
With an arbitrary value of Ksh 100,000, my portfolio should read Ksh 172,080 before transaction expenses. The gain is derived from both phases with returns from phase one also being used as starting capital for phase 2.
Going Forward:
Longhorn Publishers:- Having made a surprising announcement of a Ksh 1.20 final dividend and a bonus issue of 3 shares for every 2 shares held, I am forced to hold on as I await better prices before the books close later on in the year. In the meantime, I expect the counter to rally hard to reflect the bonus issue in full upon when I will make my decision whether to sell or hold on.
Liberty :- This counter is now beyong my buying threshold and not yet near my target. I am forced to wait as there is no material announcement.
CfC Stanbic Holdings:- This counter has experienced a lot of resistance around the Ksh 120-135 region. Since I have no idle cash at the moment, I have no choice but to wait. I will load more below Ksh 130 if I get more cash or realize any gains from other counters.

#Happy Investing 2014#


I like this guy! Very bold and very practical. No sentimental hold on any particular counter. Never shy to give figures. Sell, make money and move on. I like your style. keep us posted. Some of us are learning a thing of two from you.
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