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Why LAPSSET should be downgraded
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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limanika wrote:Toshy wrote:This is a very interesting discussion. I found an article on this issue which specifically dwells on the oil pipeline here Thank you for the article, it captures my opinions on the issue very well and much so to a bigger audience. That article says that Lamu is the most viable option so Lapsset makes more sense than the piecemeal things you are advocating. No need to build heated oil pipelines and railway lines over valleys, mountains and ridges when you can do it easily over the northern plains
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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mkonomtupu wrote:limanika wrote:Toshy wrote:This is a very interesting discussion. I found an article on this issue which specifically dwells on the oil pipeline here Thank you for the article, it captures my opinions on the issue very well and much so to a bigger audience. That article says that Lamu is the most viable option so Lapsset makes more sense than the piecemeal things you are advocating. No need to build heated oil pipelines and railway lines over valleys, mountains and ridges when you can do it easily over the northern plains Yes it says Lapsset is viable but does it also not say that S.S, E thiopia, and Uganda are having alternative plans? If S.S. gets involved in construction of the Ethiopian corridor and make binding commitments to funding agencies, do you think they will deviate mid-way and start using Lapsset. By the way not that I agree with the author of that article 100%. Building an oil pipeline side by side the existing is still the best option for Kenya. That way you make use of the same infrastructure hence minimizing cost of purchasing way leaves, management and security. It appears economics can be rocket science.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/2/2011 Posts: 629 Location: Nai
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limanika wrote:Toshy wrote:This is a very interesting discussion. I found an article on this issue which specifically dwells on the oil pipeline here Thank you for the article, it captures my opinions on the issue very well and much so to a bigger audience. Lol, talk about selective reading. The article advocates for the Lamu pipeline and if you checked carefully also says that it would carry 200,000 bpd if only Kenya was utilising it. 1.limanika are you advocating for the oil being carried over roads? 2. A pipeline on its own is not sustainable, ideally each pipeline should have an attendant rail line and parallel road all the way to the port. It is the only way to create redundacy and ensure that sabotage/accident does not stop the flow of oil.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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accelriskconsult wrote:limanika wrote:The plans were developed 40years ago? Exactly that’s the point. Regional dynamics are changing so much by the day, many may not know that Kenya is no longer East Africa’s biggest economy in GDP terms. Ethiopia is. Sudan is richer than Kenya in GDP terms. Tanzania is catching up very fast. What were the facts 40years ago? The policy makers really need to think outside the box. Boss our road and rail network belongs in the 19th century. As I said before LAPSSET is not even enough for Kenya let alone our neighbours. Honestly I am struggling to understand why you are the only one who thinks that LAPSSET is a waste of resources. Yes the 2 trillion will be borrowed money. At what? 3% interest rate? Now if you develop an economy that extracts and exports a modest 2 million barrels of oil p.a on that line, that is revenue of Sh 16.8 tr. Assuming that net income on that oil is only 10%, that is Sh 1.6 tr. Assuming that the governments share of that income is 25%, that is Sh 500b. So what is the payback period for that pipeline? 5 years? Do you now understand that 2 tr is not as daunting as it seems? Now, economists will tell you that the multiplier effect for infastructure projects suggests a 5 times growth in investment meaning that the 2 tr investment could yield a 10 tr economy within less that 3 years of completion. Do you need any more pursuasion? There was a man known as Isaac Newton who lived in the 17th century. He came up with famous Newton’s laws of motion. These laws of motion ruled the physics world like a colossus for the next 200 years. Until a man known as Albert Einstein came into the scene, and in 20th century proved that Newton’s law of gravity was not exactly correct, replacing it with general relativity. Much earlier than that, everyone believed the universe was earth-centric for thousands of years, until 400 years ago when someone suggested the solar system is sun-centric. It is possible for everyone not to see the logic until someone comes with an ‘Aha!’ moment
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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@Limanika,
By suggesting we concentrate on upgrading the existing rail and pipeline, adding lamu port to the mix, how are we then going to export our oil?
How will Isiolo and the northern regions going to develop?
What is the distance from S.Sudan-Ethiopia-Djibouti?
How is the Ethiopian terrain with all the mountains?
Who chooses which transport route to use? The citizenry or the gov't?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/2/2011 Posts: 629 Location: Nai
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limanika wrote:accelriskconsult wrote:limanika wrote:The plans were developed 40years ago? Exactly that’s the point. Regional dynamics are changing so much by the day, many may not know that Kenya is no longer East Africa’s biggest economy in GDP terms. Ethiopia is. Sudan is richer than Kenya in GDP terms. Tanzania is catching up very fast. What were the facts 40years ago? The policy makers really need to think outside the box. Boss our road and rail network belongs in the 19th century. As I said before LAPSSET is not even enough for Kenya let alone our neighbours. Honestly I am struggling to understand why you are the only one who thinks that LAPSSET is a waste of resources. Yes the 2 trillion will be borrowed money. At what? 3% interest rate? Now if you develop an economy that extracts and exports a modest 2 million barrels of oil p.a on that line, that is revenue of Sh 16.8 tr. Assuming that net income on that oil is only 10%, that is Sh 1.6 tr. Assuming that the governments share of that income is 25%, that is Sh 500b. So what is the payback period for that pipeline? 5 years? Do you now understand that 2 tr is not as daunting as it seems? Now, economists will tell you that the multiplier effect for infastructure projects suggests a 5 times growth in investment meaning that the 2 tr investment could yield a 10 tr economy within less that 3 years of completion. Do you need any more pursuasion? There was a man known as Isaac Newton who lived in the 17th century. He came up with famous Newton’s laws of motion. These laws of motion ruled the physics world like a colossus for the next 200 years. Until a man known as Albert Einstein came into the scene, and in 20th century proved that Newton’s law of gravity was not exactly correct, replacing it with general relativity. Much earlier than that, everyone believed the universe was earth-centric for thousands of years, until 400 years ago when someone suggested the solar system is sun-centric. It is possible for everyone not to see the logic until someone comes with an ‘Aha!’ moment You aspire to esteemed company my friend. Without detracting from the debate, let me state that Newton 1, 2 and 3 have in deed not been proven untrue by the theory of relativity. And yes Galileo was imprisoned for his beliefs. But you sir, are manifestly wrong in advocating for continued advancement of sessional paper number 10 of 1967 (authored by Mwai Kibaki and Tom Mboya) that advocated for continued marginalisation of dry lands.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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mkeiyd wrote:@Limanika,
By suggesting we concentrate on upgrading the existing rail and pipeline, adding lamu port to the mix, how are we then going to export our oil?
How will Isiolo and the northern regions going to develop?
What is the distance from S.Sudan-Ethiopia-Djibouti?
How is the Ethiopian terrain with all the mountains?
Who chooses which transport route to use? The citizenry or the gov't? The answers are in my posts above, but we can recap: .We will still export our oil, by using the new pipeline built side by side the existing. If there is no crude oil to export, we can still use both for upstream flow. .Development of Nortehrn region - Even if we build Lapsset, that alone does not guarantee growth along the corridor. Growth will only come if the corridor is busy, and this is what we are saying is in doubt .Distance from S.Sudan-Ethiopia-Djibouti- not sure but from the map it appears only slightly larger than Juba-Lamu. S.S can can actually throw a dice to choose which one to adopt .Difficult Ethiopian Terrain – This is no match to Ethiopian spirit. They are already building an electric rail to conquer the terrain. .The govt chooses the transport route, the citizenry offer constructive criticism. If the govt fails to reason, the banks drill sense into them by refusing to fund.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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accelriskconsult wrote:limanika wrote:accelriskconsult wrote:limanika wrote:The plans were developed 40years ago? Exactly that’s the point. Regional dynamics are changing so much by the day, many may not know that Kenya is no longer East Africa’s biggest economy in GDP terms. Ethiopia is. Sudan is richer than Kenya in GDP terms. Tanzania is catching up very fast. What were the facts 40years ago? The policy makers really need to think outside the box. Boss our road and rail network belongs in the 19th century. As I said before LAPSSET is not even enough for Kenya let alone our neighbours. Honestly I am struggling to understand why you are the only one who thinks that LAPSSET is a waste of resources. Yes the 2 trillion will be borrowed money. At what? 3% interest rate? Now if you develop an economy that extracts and exports a modest 2 million barrels of oil p.a on that line, that is revenue of Sh 16.8 tr. Assuming that net income on that oil is only 10%, that is Sh 1.6 tr. Assuming that the governments share of that income is 25%, that is Sh 500b. So what is the payback period for that pipeline? 5 years? Do you now understand that 2 tr is not as daunting as it seems? Now, economists will tell you that the multiplier effect for infastructure projects suggests a 5 times growth in investment meaning that the 2 tr investment could yield a 10 tr economy within less that 3 years of completion. Do you need any more pursuasion? There was a man known as Isaac Newton who lived in the 17th century. He came up with famous Newton’s laws of motion. These laws of motion ruled the physics world like a colossus for the next 200 years. Until a man known as Albert Einstein came into the scene, and in 20th century proved that Newton’s law of gravity was not exactly correct, replacing it with general relativity. Much earlier than that, everyone believed the universe was earth-centric for thousands of years, until 400 years ago when someone suggested the solar system is sun-centric. It is possible for everyone not to see the logic until someone comes with an ‘Aha!’ moment You aspire to esteemed company my friend. Without detracting from the debate, let me state that Newton 1, 2 and 3 have in deed not been proven untrue by the theory of relativity. And yes Galileo was imprisoned for his beliefs. But you sir, are manifestly wrong in advocating for continued advancement of sessional paper number 10 of 1967 (authored by Mwai Kibaki and Tom Mboya) that advocated for continued marginalisation of dry lands. We can open another thread later to discuss Newton versus Einstein, though there is already a lot of literature on that even in the web. The fact of the matter is that Newton’s laws of motion were based on gravitation. 100 years ago, Einstein proved that Newton’s postulation of gravitation was not exactly accurate, but only very close approximation to his findings of general relativity. Many scientists did not understand Einstein’s theories until decades later. I know many of us who were taught Newtonian physics cannot come to terms with this. The same way many refuse to accept the downgrading of pluto from planet to a mere asteroid. Back to our discussion.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Very interesting read here!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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Total waste of time going to Einstein's theories. We have our stuff here right now.
To downgrade LAPSSET or not.
I'm of the opinion we stick with it the way it is.
@Limanika, When the British were building the Msa-Kampala line, how busy was all the mass of land in between?
Infrastructure opens up places and MAKES them busy. How are going to export our oil through the current pipeline if i may ask? The damn thing has or is about to outlive its life span anyway.
In developed world and those who wish to develop fast and in organized manner, infrastructure is laid first,then the rest follows.
Ask yourself why development in Kenya is concentrated along the main transport corridors.
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