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Case Withdrawn: Uhuruto to be on the ballot!!!
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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madollar wrote:McReggae wrote:My friend facts/numbers don't lie....frm last census results GEMA and kalenjin represented about 34% pf the population.....achana na mambo ya central and rift valley. it will come down to voters registered and turn out during the runoff .if the no of voters registered is below 14 million OAR has no chance even in the runoff gema will likely have 4.5 to 5 million voters while URP 3 million voters with a total of over 7 million in the event of a runoff UK wins. if registered voters are 15 or 16 million voters it will be too close to call because we dont know who else URP will convince i.e turkanas maasai etc .over 17 million registered voters OAR is guaranteed a win in the runoff simply because combined URP TNA votes will not pass 8 million .lower voter registration favour UK while very high voter numbers will work for OAR! @madollar, instead of shouting hoarse about these imaginary numbers, take a good look at the last census result. Consider potential voters to be about 45% of each segment and then rework your numbers. KIKUYU 6,622,576 LUHYA 5,338,666 KALENJIN 4,967,328 LUO 4,044,440 KAMBA 3,893,157 KENYAN SOMALI 2,385,572 KISII 2,205,669 MIJIKENDA 1,960,574 MERU 1,658,108 TURKANA 988,592 MAASAI 841,622 TESO 338,833 EMBU 324,092 TAITA 273,519 KURIA 260,401 SAMBURU 237,179 THARAKA 175,905 MBEERE 168,155 BORANA 161,399 BASUBA 139,271 SWAHILI 110,614 GABRA 89,515 ORMA 66,275 RENDILE 60,437 ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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@McReggae
Assuming that 45% will be equal across the board (for all tribes / provinces) is being NOT REAL.
The following were 2010 referendum statistics: (There was no much emotions in this compared to a presidential election).
Total Votes cast by province
Rift Valley (1,994)
Nairobi (887)
Central (1,511)
Eastern (1,313)
Western (808)
N. Eastern (116)
Nyanza (1,276)
Coast (538)
Total votes (8,443)
Total population (2009 Census)
Rift Valley (10,007)
Nairobi (3,138)
Central (4,384)
Eastern (5,668)
Western (4,334)
N. Eastern (2,311)
Nyanza (5,443)
Coast (3,325)
Total votes (38,610)
Total votes as % of Population
Rift Valley -20%
Nairobi -28%
Central -34%
Eastern -23%
Western -19%
N. Eastern -5%
Nyanza -23%
Coast -16%
Total votes -22%
With a presidential election 2013 the above percentages may have a wider variation.... between provinces due to emotional voting.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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@Liv, I meant that 45% of the population is eligible to vote ie have attained 18yrs of age, at the 2010ref, the voter turnout was 72.18% ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/24/2009 Posts: 5,909 Location: Nairobi
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Where was Mama Water and Ninajibu during the Nakuru wedding?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,038 Location: GA
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McReggae wrote:@Liv,
I meant that 45% of the population is eligible to vote ie have attained 18yrs of age, at the 2010ref, the voter turnout was 72.18% i think the best thing for now is to wait for the voter registration numbers to come out but make no mistake anything below 15 million and the URP/TNA camp will be celebrating
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/24/2009 Posts: 5,909 Location: Nairobi
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madollar wrote:McReggae wrote:@Liv,
I meant that 45% of the population is eligible to vote ie have attained 18yrs of age, at the 2010ref, the voter turnout was 72.18% i think the best thing for now is to wait for the voter registration numbers to come out but make no mistake anything below 15 million and the URP/TNA camp will be celebrating How will this group of people address land issues? #Kusema na KuTender
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/21/2007 Posts: 326
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@madoba, i have done my maths from your 2009 census numbers, the sad situation is that uhuruto may win in round one if their tribes vote for them almost to a man the tally would be about 6.5m votes country wide c46%. they only need a little bit more tribal kingpins to bed it! on the other hand i think if they lost in round one then round 2 they would most likely loose ...remember 42 vs 1? Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/24/2009 Posts: 5,909 Location: Nairobi
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Mo wrote:@madoba, i have done my maths from your 2009 census numbers, the sad situation is that uhuruto may win in round one if their tribes vote for them almost to a man the tally would be about 6.5m votes country wide c46%. they only need a little bit more tribal kingpins to bed it!
on the other hand i think if they lost in round one then round 2 they would most likely loose ...remember 42 vs 1? Why would people who voted for the group in 1st round (from the remaining 42), change to vote for the other candidate in 2nd roound?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Mo wrote:@madoba, i have done my maths from your 2009 census numbers, the sad situation is that uhuruto may win in round one if their tribes vote for them almost to a man the tally would be about 6.5m votes country wide c46%. they only need a little bit more tribal kingpins to bed it!
on the other hand i think if they lost in round one then round 2 they would most likely loose ...remember 42 vs 1? It's about 6.2M votes if there is 100% voter turnout.....where is that possible!!!! I mean GEMA and Kalenjin will form 34% of the voters, you can't win the election on the basis of these two groups alone!!! ...when other candidates campaign in RV, they will not touch WSR as he is not competing, they will atack Uhuru and this I tell you will re-work the numbers!!! ....the bigggest hold of Kalenjins for Ruto was just before the wedding, now it can only go down!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2010 Posts: 1,797 Location: Kenya
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there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth  I may be wrong..but then I could be right
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/19/2010 Posts: 1,308 Location: nairobi metropolitan
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digitek1 wrote:there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth propaganda. Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,038 Location: GA
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McReggae wrote:Mo wrote:@madoba, i have done my maths from your 2009 census numbers, the sad situation is that uhuruto may win in round one if their tribes vote for them almost to a man the tally would be about 6.5m votes country wide c46%. they only need a little bit more tribal kingpins to bed it!
on the other hand i think if they lost in round one then round 2 they would most likely loose ...remember 42 vs 1? It's about 6.2M votes if there is 100 Kalenjin will form 34% of the voters, you can't win the election on the basis of these two groups alone!!! ...when other candidates campaign in RV, they will not touch WSR as he is not competing, they will atack Uhuru and this I tell you will re-work the numbers!!!....the bigggest hold of Kalenjins for Ruto was just before the wedding, now it can only go down!!!! again assumptions it not only 2 communities they have duale mungatana shaban even ekwe ethuro among others who knows the numbers they will bring
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Indeed @madollar...duale, ekwe, shaban and Mungatana will bring in a lot of votes!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,038 Location: GA
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McReggae wrote:Indeed @madollar...duale, ekwe, shaban and Mungatana will bring in a lot of votes!!!! and how many votes did kibaki get against OAR in 07 or what was obama victory margin in ohio and florida for him to secure the presidency.counties like garissa taitataveta lamu turkana will be critical in the first round even if they will have 10 voters
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/5/2010 Posts: 2,061 Location: Nairobi
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Come on guys, lets take a break from the tribal/coalition/county arithmetic and focus once again on the integrity case, which was refiled and today given the greenlight to proceed http://www.nation.co.ke/...0/-/4yjogb/-/index.html
So,...any lawyers in the house? Who has the inside track of how the judges think and possibly how they will rule on this matter?
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Case Withdrawn: Uhuruto to be on the ballot!!!
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