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Facebook IPO
KenyanLyrics
#101 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 5:29:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
Tanking fast. It's looking to hit about 30$ a share, despite Morgan Stanley's best attempts at support. http://www.businessinsid...aks-the-ipo-price-2012-5
Rollout
#102 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 5:57:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
hisah wrote:
@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all...


I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions.

Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook!
hisah
#103 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 6:23:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
So far FB stock is 11% below IPO price on 2nd trading day. Those who bought it at $45 during the IPO ramp are already 20% underwater. Indeed a historic global IPO this is...

Enjoy the video... https://www.youtube.com/...bedded&v=qqF83-FmVpM
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
QW25091985
#104 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 6:38:11 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
Rollout wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all...


I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions.

Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook!



@rollout. Which broker do you use to trade facebook stocks ? Are they cheap ?
Rollout
#105 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 7:17:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
QW25091985 wrote:
Rollout wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all...


I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions.

Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook!



@rollout. Which broker do you use to trade facebook stocks ? Are they cheap ?


I trade inhouse using other people's money! Don't need a broker!
kyt
#106 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 11:30:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
rollout care to explain how you so that? kindly??
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
youcan'tstopusnow
#107 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 11:48:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
The Wanjikus in the USA who bought into Facebook should find time and talk to the Wanjikus in Kenya who bought into Safaricon and Britank! They might help each other in coping mechanisms. They might even do it in AA-style meetings. ''Hi, guys. My name is...and I got duped''

Or to paraphrase rapper Game:
''NYSE, NSE; different toilet same shit!''
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#108 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 12:03:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Mr Moorhead said that
meant the Initial Public
Offering (IPO) had been a success for Facebook's
founders and early investors.
Some of them managed to sell parts of their stakes for hundreds of millions of dollars.
But he said the share price fall could have long-term consequences for the world's
biggest social network.
"The challenge is this will
sully the long-term brand of
Facebook, and in five years time people will look back on the IPO and have a negative connotation and none of that is good for the
Facebook brand and the
Facebook service itself," Mr Moorhead told BBC World.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18141990
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Nabwire
#109 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 12:26:15 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
There is no such thing as a Wanjiku investor in the US. The US middle class is too broke to even have money left over to buy shares, after extreme partying,flashy cars and bills bills bills, they barely have $2 at the end of the month. The retail investors who bought FB cashed out on Friday in a panic, I think most of the people left in now are the big boys and the speculators. The lock out period I think is 6 months for the initial investors, they have Billions to lose, I doubt if they will just let the ship sink. I wouldnt necessarily write off FB, the sad thing for them is when the tide does turn for them, people will be too busy to notice. Lets not forget that the IPO was offered at a time when the market had been down 11 out of 12 sesions
Rollout
#110 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 12:28:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
@youcan'tstopusnow,
According to me, it is good for longterm prospect of facebook for the stock to drop down to $20-$25, and I know this sound like self-serving on my part because I had already indicated that my positions will profit when facebook stock drop but here is the point.

Valuation of facebook IPO is supported by blurry fundamentals, so with the IPO price of $38 facebook will most likely disappoint the market by not meeting the revenue targets that can support such stock price, so to avoid regular missing of targets, facebook stock can as well take the hit now and grow it's revenue step by step than have to disappoint the market quarter after quarter. Again either way I am happy with the way thing are looking right now, couldn't be happier! God Bless Facebook
Rollout
#111 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 12:42:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
[quote=hisah]So far FB stock is 11% below IPO price on 2nd trading day. Those who bought it at $45 during the IPO ramp are already 20% underwater. Indeed a historic global IPO this is...

Enjoy the video... https://www.youtube.com/...edded&v=qqF83-FmVpM[/quote]

Who in this world full of stupid people would think facebook will undervalue its stock? it was obvious just like Safaricom that facebook was going to overvalue the stock, the only think that push the price up was the hype, I predicated a drop of between 15-25% by the end of the first full week of trading!
youcan'tstopusnow
#112 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 1:05:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Rollout, true. FB won't tumble forever. The exact same scenario played out here where Britak and TCL rose slightly at first then hit mega-lows immediately after. Only after the dust has settled, are they now gradually beginning to rise.

Was there ever a positive report on Facebook pre-listing? All reports I read advised caution. Yet who was buying at 45? And more intriguing, why? (Maybe just succumbing to 'hype' as you say)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
hisah
#113 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 7:39:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Rollout wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all...


I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions.

Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook!

I still think $23 is too high for this thing. As you say the short covering will bounce it, but my outlook 4-6 months is this thing will be sub $20. What stops FB from experiencing the same fate as MySpace? How unique is it not to be replicated? Where is the value coming from? What are its assets? People's photos & status?

As @youcant says KE retails got it rough with Britak & Safaricom hype IPO's? I expect FB to remain sub IPO price for a long time.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Jamani
#114 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 2:36:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Extract from Zacks.com

Much Ado About Nothing (aka Facebook)

Facebook has to be the most overhyped and underwhelming IPO of all time. First the launch was delayed by 30 minutes. Then it barely blipped higher before retreating to the original price of $38. Then the underwriters had to jump in to buy more shares to save face. From there it floated higher for a while. Then ended the day embarrassingly close to where it started.

Want to know what I really think about Facebook? Then check out my most recent article (the title might tip you off a little ;-).

Why I Am Shorting Facebook

As for my prediction of a bounce coming, it seems to be according to plan. Here again is my previous commentary on the matter:

"I bet that the market bounces higher on Friday morning. Yet as the day progresses it starts turning south once again. And as hope goes out the window THAT is the time to cover your shorts and go a bit more long for a likely 2-3% bounce next week."

Well the hope going out the window part certainly took place. Now let's see if the bounce ensues. To get the early read on the market every morning, then be sure become a regular reader of our popular article: Ahead of Wall Street
Murenju
#115 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 3:13:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/13/2006
Posts: 94
Location: Nairobi
Which brokers in Kenya can assist me to buy this FB stock.
Knock hard and it will be opened. Ask and you will be answered. Seek and you shall find.
selah
#116 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 3:16:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
And now is the start of the Drama.

Quote:
In the run-up to Facebook's $16 billion IPO, Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, unexpectedly delivered some negative news to major clients: The bank's consumer Internet analyst, Scott Devitt, was reducing his revenue forecasts for the company.

The sudden caution very close to the huge initial public offering, and while an investor roadshow was underway, was a big shock to some, said two investors who were advised of the revised forecast.

They say it may have contributed to the weak performance of Facebook shares, which sank on Monday - their second day of trading - to end 10 percent below the IPO price. The $38 per share IPO price valued Facebook at $104 billion.


http://news.yahoo.com/in...po-051601330--sector.htm
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
hisah
#117 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 3:19:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
selah wrote:
And now is the start of the Drama.

Quote:
In the run-up to Facebook's $16 billion IPO, Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, unexpectedly delivered some negative news to major clients: The bank's consumer Internet analyst, Scott Devitt, was reducing his revenue forecasts for the company.

The sudden caution very close to the huge initial public offering, and while an investor roadshow was underway, was a big shock to some, said two investors who were advised of the revised forecast.

They say it may have contributed to the weak performance of Facebook shares, which sank on Monday - their second day of trading - to end 10 percent below the IPO price. The $38 per share IPO price valued Facebook at $104 billion.


http://news.yahoo.com/in...o-051601330--sector.htm


Oh this FB game is shaping out to be a proper thriller...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Rollout
#118 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 4:36:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
hisah wrote:
Rollout wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all...


I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions.

Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook!

I still think $23 is too high for this thing. As you say the short covering will bounce it, but my outlook 4-6 months is this thing will be sub $20. What stops FB from experiencing the same fate as MySpace? How unique is it not to be replicated? Where is the value coming from? What are its assets? People's photos & status?

As @youcant says KE retails got it rough with Britak & Safaricom hype IPO's? I expect FB to remain sub IPO price for a long time.



I think Facebook has alot of smart people running the company and for that reason the next move for facebook is to go for a round of shopping, acquisition will very much drive the company revenue for the next 3 yrs but the EVA will be on red for some time because of that, when you put everything together, unlike Safaricom, facebook will actually perform well in long term.
hisah
#119 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 5:42:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Still bleeding - down 4% today.



http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/stock-chart
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Rollout
#120 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 6:49:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/26/2011
Posts: 759
Just counting my days, Thurday 1pm I will be very happy, I want it to slide as slow as possible as I milk every moment, this baby is doing exactly what some of us wanted. Now that it is public information, there were cuts in revenue estimate assumptions in the middle of the roadshow that were material but were only disclosed to privilaged investors and that explain a larger part of sell off, in plain terms some people had material info about Facebook, JP Morgan, Morgan Stan and Goldman underwriting analysts lower the estimate the last minute and the info was only disclosed to few investors, sound illigal to me but let the SEC worry about that!
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