mlennyma wrote:I had projected atleast to see 220 and it has passed my litmus test.iam convinced the nse is among the top investment platforms.imagine from 175 to 220?almost all stocks will tripple for the five years after 2012 if we dont butcher each other.
I wont allow myself to be taken up in this euphoria. After close examination of the results, Jubilee is overvalued and the only excitement will come in form of the bonus issue. Look closely at the cashflow from operations, these guys generated no free cashflow last year. The positive cashflow from operating activities is enhanced by the DAC's and the changes in insurance contract liabilities and reserves.(these are negatives ultimately). Insurers profit in a 3 pronged way.
1. Through underwriting margins.
2. Through Investment Income
3. Appreciation of the value of the assets.
Typically, you want an insurer whose management focuses on all the three in that order. Now for Jubilee, indeed they have a great management team, but the euphoria surrounding the results is baseless as its driven by the 3rd which is erratic and prone to wild swings. Now had the NSE been up 10-12% last year, then jubilee would have relied on the bonus bonanza for the stock to be up 25%. Because, if you ignore the changes in portfolio market at market, jubilee would be in a loss position of -2,224,502,000. Yes, thats true. But the unrealized gains in the investment portfolio market at market show a total of 3,782,400,000. Note that in the previous -2,224,502,000, i had included share of results of associates after income tax, meaning that if i were to ignore it too, the loss position would be enormous. At current prices, investors are bidding it at 2.2x book. This makes it extremely overvalued, especially when you weigh it against returns of other stocks in similar segments. Now if your playing it for the bonus bonanza, well and good. But if your allocating capital, now wouldn't be the time to touch this honey.