Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
I'll say this again. Interest on borrowing is a cost component of Cost of Sales. Thus, if your 'business' is there to serve other businesses mostly/only i.e banks, landlord, suppliers e.t.c then you have no business being in business in the 1st place. Let's not blow things out of proportion please.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
KulaRaha wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted? Um, excuse me, pls, just wondering, when did money supply get constricted? From what I see loans are flowing, as is spending...so, um, this constriction, is it real? chek out m3 stats for oct on the knbs site, m2 figs r lower, surely where have u been? cbk have been tightenin since oct..loans are flowing at what? +20pct?
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
KulaRaha wrote:hisah wrote:KulaRaha wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted? Um, excuse me, pls, just wondering, when did money supply get constricted? From what I see loans are flowing, as is spending...so, um, this constriction, is it real? Wow! You mean loans are flowing with the neck break lending rates!? Tbills @20%... Something is not adding up...  Wait until banks publish, then compare Q2 to Q4...its weird, almost as if the consumer out there isn't affected by these rates... any bank growing its assets during this period is a prime candidate for MEGA SHORT SELLING if this were possible, why lend to private sector? gok is taking 1 yr money at 22pct! interbank cash mkt is at btwn 15 and 19pct! how hard is it figure this stuff out? guess too many banks have accountants as CEOs
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
|
I see two scenarios on Ksh for the rest of the year. The key I think is whether GoK is able to raise the $600m it was looking for. If its able to, come Feb or March, CBK will start reducing CBR to avoid risk of an actual recession and generally relaxing the exchange controls/interventions. With oil spiking upwards, I'd expect Ksh to go towards an equilibrium of Ksh90-95. Assuming no further daily sales from CBK of $. If GoK only raises a portion of the $600m, CBK will still have to ease int rates. However, there will now appear a gap between CBR and t-bill coupon. Ksh will then float juu ya Ksh100 with or without CBK support. Kulahepi- i think Q3 vs Q4 will be more relevant. Also, are these new loans or revolving credits? Sehemu ndio nyumba
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
That $600M is expected this moon.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
Cde Monomotapa wrote:That $600M is expected this moon. Any idea which foriegn banks are involved in this? “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
Mainat wrote:I see two scenarios on Ksh for the rest of the year. The key I think is whether GoK is able to raise the $600m it was looking for.
If its able to, come Feb or March, CBK will start reducing CBR to avoid risk of an actual recession and generally relaxing the exchange controls/interventions. With oil spiking upwards, I'd expect Ksh to go towards an equilibrium of Ksh90-95. Assuming no further daily sales from CBK of $.
If GoK only raises a portion of the $600m, CBK will still have to ease int rates. However, there will now appear a gap between CBR and t-bill coupon. Ksh will then float juu ya Ksh100 with or without CBK support.
Kulahepi- i think Q3 vs Q4 will be more relevant. Also, are these new loans or revolving credits?
how will the usd 600mio help reduce pressure on money supply? we looked at 3 scenarios 1. cbk swap out for kes's whoever they do the swap with needs 48bn kes odd...where will they raise this from? the only way is from the domestic mkt, NET RESULT RATES GO UP, PRIVATE SECTOR TOTALLY CROWDED OUT..RECESSION PROBABLY BECOMES A DEPRESSION 2.they sell the usd, buy 48bn kes from mkt, NET RESULT RATES GO UP..HOWEVER KES ALSO STAGES A MEGA RECOVERY, IN THE SHORT RUN, UNTIL REPAYMENT OF LOAN STARTS WHEN CBK BEGIN TO BUY USDs FROM THE MARKET, USING KESs WHICH U GUESSED IT...IT PRINTS FROM THIN AIR=> FALSE RECOVERY=> INFLATION= 2011 ALL OVER AGAIN 3. they sit on the cash NET RESULT..NO CHANGE IN MONEY SUPPLY, REDUCED PRESSURE ON KES WHICH SHUD RALLY...IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST all 3 scenarios are loosing ones, the loan was a terrible idea, God knows what the gok has offered as security, banks are ruthless ladies and gents...lets pray we NEVER default on this silly loan, better still lets pray that this transaction fails PS CAPS INTENDED
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
|
kizee1 wrote:KulaRaha wrote:hisah wrote:KulaRaha wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted? Um, excuse me, pls, just wondering, when did money supply get constricted? From what I see loans are flowing, as is spending...so, um, this constriction, is it real? Wow! You mean loans are flowing with the neck break lending rates!? Tbills @20%... Something is not adding up... Wait until banks publish, then compare Q2 to Q4...its weird, almost as if the consumer out there isn't affected by these rates... any bank growing its assets during this period is a prime candidate for MEGA SHORT SELLING if this were possible, why lend to private sector? gok is taking 1 yr money at 22pct! interbank cash mkt is at btwn 15 and 19pct! how hard is it figure this stuff out? guess too many banks have accountants as CEOs KulaRaha, did you get a whiff of this earlier? UBA customer deposits down 55pc as clients eye higher-yielding investmentshttp://www.businessdaily...552/1293008/-/9un8su/-/
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
|
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:kizee1 wrote:KulaRaha wrote:hisah wrote:KulaRaha wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted? Um, excuse me, pls, just wondering, when did money supply get constricted? From what I see loans are flowing, as is spending...so, um, this constriction, is it real? Wow! You mean loans are flowing with the neck break lending rates!? Tbills @20%... Something is not adding up... Wait until banks publish, then compare Q2 to Q4...its weird, almost as if the consumer out there isn't affected by these rates... any bank growing its assets during this period is a prime candidate for MEGA SHORT SELLING if this were possible, why lend to private sector? gok is taking 1 yr money at 22pct! interbank cash mkt is at btwn 15 and 19pct! how hard is it figure this stuff out? guess too many banks have accountants as CEOs KulaRaha, did you get a whiff of this earlier? UBA customer deposits down 55pc as clients eye higher-yielding investmentshttp://www.businessdaily...552/1293008/-/9un8su/-/
......................
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
Scubidu wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:That $600M is expected this moon. Any idea which foriegn banks are involved in this? Goldman, JP Morgan, Deustche, Barclays PLC
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|