shocks wrote:T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend
T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.
When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%
2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%
2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012
Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.