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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,491 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,491 Location: nairobi
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murchr wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? Are you a victim?? They should have bought jana!
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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obiero wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? Are you a victim?? They should have bought jana! My avg is 19.60, I climbed this bus when you were the driver. Didn't alight when you chickened out "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,491 Location: nairobi
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murchr wrote:obiero wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? Are you a victim?? They should have bought jana! My avg is 19.60, I climbed this bus when you were the driver. Didn't alight when you chickened out Chickened out, booked gains.. Potato, potato :)
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Welcome to the NSE 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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murchr wrote:obiero wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? Are you a victim?? They should have bought jana! My avg is 19.60, I climbed this bus when you were the driver. Didn't alight when you chickened out Low blow hahaha Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,491 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? Are you a victim?? They should have bought jana! My avg is 19.60, I climbed this bus when you were the driver. Didn't alight when you chickened out Low blow hahaha Tumezoea matusi ya huyo mtoto mtundu. I make him board the bus kindly and now he defecates inside the vehicle..
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? Are you a victim?? They should have bought jana! My avg is 19.60, I climbed this bus when you were the driver. Didn't alight when you chickened out Low blow hahaha Tumezoea matusi ya huyo mtoto mtundu. I make him board the bus kindly and now he defecates inside the vehicle.. Funny how you've never left this page since disembarking at 24/- :) :) Enjoy the day, i hope you have plans of boarding. It must be terrible watching from the sidelines. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/1/2010 Posts: 272 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Othelo wrote:mlennyma wrote:How has this thing traded a low of more than 10%??I have not come across any announcement? Rights issue .... to qualify for rights ended yesterday! thanks, so it will trade at around 40's , or it may slip further?? I calculated the value of the rights issue, I was disappointed. before rights issue - EPS- 4.31 pe at 46.00- 10.67 after rights issue - EPS- 2.82 pe at 30.00- 10.67. this means due to the dilution the rights issue is such that at 30.00 shilling per share. the share will be trading at the equivalent of 46.00 per share before rights issue. I doubt the share will touch 30.00 after or during rights, whatever price it is above this is due to value mismatch in investors minds created by rights issue, but not a real price value mismatch . I think at least 36.00 should print, just a guess Thanks for the good analysis. Those who bought at 55 are learners.. L plate If they would have bought today or tomorrow, then they wouldn't have been able to participate in the rights. Ama? Are you a victim?? They should have bought jana! My avg is 19.60, I climbed this bus when you were the driver. Didn't alight when you chickened out Low blow hahaha Tumezoea matusi ya huyo mtoto mtundu. I make him board the bus kindly and now he defecates inside the vehicle.. Funny how you've never left this page since disembarking at 24/- :) :) Enjoy the day, i hope you have plans of boarding. It must be terrible watching from the sidelines. Haha! Never a dull moment in Wazua. I was a passenger from 15.20-25.50 range, alighted fully last week at 48.50 and 52.00 Will watch rights issue from the stage. The harder you work, the luckier you get
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I'm dissapointed by these rights, i was really looking forward to them. If you ask me its like Britam are acquiring a few more shares in HFCK at the same price they bought the ones from equity (while HFCK raises capitla) Surely even 1 for every 4 wouldve been acceptable.  The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/7/2013 Posts: 127 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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Aguytrying wrote:I'm dissapointed by these rights, i was really looking forward to them. If you ask me its like Britam are acquiring a few more shares in HFCK at the same price they bought the ones from equity (while HFCK raises capitla) Surely even 1 for every 4 wouldve been acceptable. Better or worse yet (you decide)... Britam acquires any untaken rights by way of private transfer (equity)... I went into the (Ferry) industry knowing the same thing I knew with all other businesses I went into- Nothing. Then I built it from there. - Sheldon Adelson (Titans at the Table- Giants of Macau)
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Aguytrying wrote:I'm dissapointed by these rights, i was really looking forward to them. If you ask me its like Britam are acquiring a few more shares in HFCK at the same price they bought the ones from equity (while HFCK raises capitla) Surely even 1 for every 4 wouldve been acceptable. Keeping this one on my watch list. it's better to raise the rights at this time the market is beginning to feel lethargic
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Aguytrying wrote:I'm dissapointed by these rights, i was really looking forward to them. If you ask me its like Britam are acquiring a few more shares in HFCK at the same price they bought the ones from equity (while HFCK raises capitla) Surely even 1 for every 4 wouldve been acceptable. Forgive me but I don't understand the cause of your disappointment. Pricing - too high; too low? Number of rights/shares - too high, too low? Clarify tafadhali. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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MaichBlack wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I'm dissapointed by these rights, i was really looking forward to them. If you ask me its like Britam are acquiring a few more shares in HFCK at the same price they bought the ones from equity (while HFCK raises capitla) Surely even 1 for every 4 wouldve been acceptable. Forgive me but I don't understand the cause of your disappointment. Pricing - too high; too low? Number of rights/shares - too high, too low? Clarify tafadhali. Pricing too low to the benefit of Britam? Needs clarity. It's either BUY, HOLD or SELL. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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jerry wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I'm dissapointed by these rights, i was really looking forward to them. If you ask me its like Britam are acquiring a few more shares in HFCK at the same price they bought the ones from equity (while HFCK raises capitla) Surely even 1 for every 4 wouldve been acceptable. Forgive me but I don't understand the cause of your disappointment. Pricing - too high; too low? Number of rights/shares - too high, too low? Clarify tafadhali. Pricing too low to the benefit of Britam? Needs clarity. It's either BUY, HOLD or SELL. Too late for sell and hold unless there is someone willing to buy your allocated rights at a premium. And if they do, it should be at > 15/= (which you will NOT get!) otherwise you could have simply sold you shares at 45/= - 55/=. In conclusion, too late to sell or hold. Period. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@maichblack. my dissappionted is highlighted in post #1101. The rights are priced too high. on the surface it looks like a >15 shilling discount but in truth due to the dilution there really is no discount. rights at 30.00 is equivalent to buying the share at 46 before rights. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,452
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Aguytrying wrote:@maichblack. my dissappionted is highlighted in post #1101. The rights are priced too high. on the surface it looks like a >15 shilling discount but in truth due to the dilution there really is no discount. rights at 30.00 is equivalent to buying the share at 46 before rights. I beg to differ. Don't forget the company will now have an extra Kshs. 3.5 Billion at hand. So you are basically buying the company at the "same price" only that it now has 3.5 Billion extra at hand. This money is meant to support the company's strategy so the EPS should be higher because of the rights issue money than the recalculated EPS you have in post #1101. Of course it all depends on how they deploy the funds but in theory at least the EPS should be much better. And it is all theory in any case because even assuming the EPS remains "constant" is based on assumption that performance remains constant. In summary, I am saying your calculation ignores the extra 3.5 Billion the company will have at hand and which it doesn't have now. Even if that money was to be deposited in an account (Or money market, bonds etc.) earning 10% p.a., that's a cool 350 million in extra earnings - that translates to Kshs. 1/= extra per (diluted) share!!! And that is using the least creative approach. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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