The market is far from bottoming out. By December 2011, the market still has room to shed another 10-15%% (NSE Index of about 2900 - 3100).

I expect that will not even be the bottom.....the bottom will be hit 1-2 months to the elections (June/July 2012 or Oct/Nov 2012 depending on what the Supreme Court decides is the election dates). At the true bottom, I anticipate an NSE Index in the 2500 to 2700 range depending on political temperatures that will be prevailing in 2012 and the Global Economic Situation. As such, i anticipate that the market still has a 25% downside potential before the elections are held in 2012.

This is not the time to accumulate stocks......its time to accumulate cash. Any stock purchase (if you must buy) should be based on dividend yield (more like buying a T-Bill).

I anticipate a situation in March-June 2012 where companies will be trading at annual dividend yields of 10% (KK, KCB,Mumias etc) and below book value.

I will contemplate taking a huge bank loan just a month to elections. Coupled with the accumulated resources (almost 2 years worth of accumulated savings- haven't been actieve in the market this year apart from buying some KK when it fell sub 10), i should sufficiently raid the market if the index gets near the 2500 range. At this point, most stocks will be trading at trailing P/Es of below 5 (forward P/Es of 4 and below).

Post election, capital gains of 40% - 80% will not be unrealistic within six months if elections are free and fair(depending on how well you choose your stocks). This should compensate the 2 years worth of market inactivity.

Thats the market as i see it (may or may not come to pass).

Happy Hunting.

To support my Safaricom bellweather theory...last time the NSE bottomed out was Jan 2009...the index was at 2300...Safaricom was at 2.53...the index then gained 1200 points to reach 3500 by October 2010...Safcom was at 5.95...the share seemed to peak at that level although the bourse went on to rally above 4000, the weakness in the momentum was there to see...if u remember there was a mini bear come Nov-Dec this was followed by a sharp rally in January where the NSE picked at 4600...Safaricom was at 4.70...since then Safaricom and NSE has never seen those levels again...so depending where Safaricom's out in the next few month or years thats where the NSE will bottom out...my 2 cents..

You'll be surprised @ how public funds will be used to prop then line private interests and pockets respectively. jiunge na club.

You know things are thick when on a day that the index falls 1.8 percent to stand at 3402. Not a single post is made on this thread. Yesterday blood was shed! What! It was something to behold. Forget about your portfolio or whats left of it. And enjoy the slide. I'm getting really tempted to add to the number of counters my portfolio will eventually consist of coz they look so juicy.

@underweight, good on ya mate n all the best. My position has always been that if a Western recession is what it takes for EAC to import 60 dollar crude then so be it!