wazua Thu, Mar 26, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

86 Pages«<5354555657>»
Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
hisah
#541 Posted : Saturday, December 24, 2011 1:14:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
QW25081985 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107...


wow ! i wish you cld show charts showin that ...what would cause that ?

The KES strength is artificial and not economy backed. If indeed KES is strong I dare CBK to remove the forex controls implemented a while ago when USDKES hit the 107 high. Looking at the lacklustre appetite for gok treasury paper also shows 'a lot' of confidence on KES Liar

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  |
hisah
#542 Posted : Wednesday, December 28, 2011 7:41:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
QW25081985 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107...


wow ! i wish you cld show charts showin that ...what would cause that ?

The KES strength is artificial and not economy backed. If indeed KES is strong I dare CBK to remove the forex controls implemented a while ago when USDKES hit the 107 high. Looking at the lacklustre appetite for gok treasury paper also shows 'a lot' of confidence on KES Liar



And the KES questionable strength tape continues rolling...

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/7o5bpdz/-/index.html

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  |
hisah
#543 Posted : Wednesday, December 28, 2011 8:02:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Our prof has another counterpart made in Turkey... Both are still trying to figure out this dollarizing monster...

http://www.bloomberg.com...rn-over-bank-policy.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  |
RVP
#544 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 11:28:50 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 69
The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60

http://finance.yahoo.com...n&z=m&q=l&c=
Back to top
  |
hisah
#545 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 12:13:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60

http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote]

When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  |
kizee1
#546 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 6:47:22 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60

http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote]

When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging.


im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted?
Back to top
  |
hisah
#547 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 6:57:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Kizee - if fx controls are removed, KES will be shorted globally. So I'm looking from the external on fx. Obviously CBK will be forced to monetize at some point, which will weaken KES further. So those 2 (monetize & fx control removal) will see KES retest those 107 highs and surpassing them depending on the bitter herbs of the economical performance as the year rolls by.

Update - even with tight fx controls USDKES is still experiencing sharp moves. So for how long will the dollars be sold? Infinity...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/589p5yz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, January 04, 2012 7:08 PM | Reason: Not specified
kizee1
#548 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 7:58:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
@Kizee - if fx controls are removed, KES will be shorted globally. So I'm looking from the external on fx. Obviously CBK will be forced to monetize at some point, which will weaken KES further. So those 2 (monetize & fx control removal) will see KES retest those 107 highs and surpassing them depending on the bitter herbs of the economical performance as the year rolls by.

Update - even with tight fx controls USDKES is still experiencing sharp moves. So for how long will the dollars be sold? Infinity...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/589p5yz/-/index.html



OK fist understand that a 2pct move for kes isn't particularly sharp anymore...cbk monetize, i don't think so..at least not in 2012..lift controls...perfect short kes and fund at 20 percent? wud u rather pay or receive 20 percent? wud u rather receive a guaranteed 20pct or ride ur luck and hope for 20pct depreciation TO JUST BREAK EVEN?

kumbuka at 108 or just breaking even..ok guess u cud short(kes) now at say 88 and target 105.6..to break even and hope cbk monetize..or u cud short at 88(usd) pick up yield, and if cbk monetize u get capital gains on ur yields....smile just sayin
Back to top
  |
kizee1
#549 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 8:01:17 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
kes was waaay overbot at 83 levels but now its quickly becoming oversold(rsi at 60)..i wud rather play the range than expect a sharp break either way

heres ur chart...im not near my reuters so i had to use a web generated chart

http://www.forexpros.com...s/usd-kes-advanced-chart
Back to top
  |
drake
#550 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 2:41:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
the deal wrote:
If i was to use the balance of payment (BoP) valuation model to value the Shilling its OVERVALUED at the current exchange rates unless the BoP shrinks due to the current tightening I will buy USD in 2012.



This is interesting... please walk us through your BoP valuation model.... and what does it spit out as "intrinsic value" for USD/KES anyway?
Back to top
  |
86 Pages«<5354555657>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.