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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#531 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 3:46:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
As always, you can right click on image > Open Image in New Tab to see the image better.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#532 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 4:34:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
To ensure consistency in labelling with our long term chart, I have also updated the wave counts in this short term chart.



So there we are.

We have our impulse wave drop from 5499 level in March and with wave counts (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v) making up minute wave [i] at 4744.66.

We now have wave (a) at 4906.07 and a developing wave (b), which has already broken below the low of our impulse. This suggests that the entire wave [ii], which should consist of waves (a) (b) and (c), will be an expanded flat. We therefore expect wave (b) to bottom soon and our wave (c) to move up above 4906 level.

An alternate count would suggest that wave [ii] is already complete at 4906.07 and we are now falling in wave [iii]. There is a level which, if broken, would suggest that is the case. See below:

Number Crunching:

Length Wave [i] = {5499.64 - 4744.66} = 754.98

Length Wave (a) = {4906.07 - 4744.66} = 161.41

So wave (a) was close to Fibonacci 23.6% of wave [i].

Since we expect a flat, we can predict a target for wave (b) as shown below.

B waves of expanded flats are usually 123.6% of the A wave.

Therefore:

123.6% of 161.41 = 199.50

Subtracting this value from the end of wave (a) gives us:

{4906.07 - 199.50} = 4706.57

And we don't expect wave (b) to be more than 138.2% of wave (a).

138.2% of 161.41 = 223.07

Thus, wave (b) should not go below: {4906.07 - 223.07} = 4683

As stated before, if 4683 is broken to the downside then we'll know that we are in the wave [iii].

SUMMARY:

NSE 20 Share Index is expected to bottom at (or near) 4706.57 then start a powerful move up in wave (c).




Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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bartum
#533 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 5:37:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
To ensure consistency in labelling with our long term chart, I have also updated the wave counts in this short term chart.



So there we are.

We have our impulse wave drop from 5499 level in March and with wave counts (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v) making up minute wave [i] at 4744.66.

We now have wave (a) at 4906.07 and a developing wave (b), which has already broken below the low of our impulse. This suggests that the entire wave [ii], which should consist of waves (a) (b) and (c), will be an expanded flat. We therefore expect wave (b) to bottom soon and our wave (c) to move up above 4906 level.

An alternate count would suggest that wave [ii] is already complete at 4906.07 and we are now falling in wave [iii]. There is a level which, if broken, would suggest that is the case. See below:

Number Crunching:

Length Wave [i] = {5499.64 - 4744.66} = 754.98

Length Wave (a) = {4906.07 - 4744.66} = 161.41

So wave (a) was close to Fibonacci 23.6% of wave [i].

Since we expect a flat, we can predict a target for wave (b) as shown below.

B waves of expanded flats are usually 123.6% of the A wave.

Therefore:

123.6% of 161.41 = 199.50

Subtracting this value from the end of wave (a) gives us:

{4906.07 - 199.50} = 4706.57

And we don't expect wave (b) to be more than 138.2% of wave (a).

138.2% of 161.41 = 223.07

Thus, wave (b) should not go below: {4906.07 - 223.07} = 4683

As stated before, if 4683 is broken to the downside then we'll know that we are in the wave [iii].

SUMMARY:

NSE 20 Share Index is expected to bottom at (or near) 4706.57 then start a powerful move up in wave (c).


mnandi you are real veteran +
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mnandii
#534 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 6:25:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
bartum wrote:
mnandii wrote:
To ensure consistency in labelling with our long term chart, I have also updated the wave counts in this short term chart.



So there we are.

We have our impulse wave drop from 5499 level in March and with wave counts (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v) making up minute wave [i] at 4744.66.

We now have wave (a) at 4906.07 and a developing wave (b), which has already broken below the low of our impulse. This suggests that the entire wave [ii], which should consist of waves (a) (b) and (c), will be an expanded flat. We therefore expect wave (b) to bottom soon and our wave (c) to move up above 4906 level.

An alternate count would suggest that wave [ii] is already complete at 4906.07 and we are now falling in wave [iii]. There is a level which, if broken, would suggest that is the case. See below:

Number Crunching:

Length Wave [i] = {5499.64 - 4744.66} = 754.98

Length Wave (a) = {4906.07 - 4744.66} = 161.41

So wave (a) was close to Fibonacci 23.6% of wave [i].

Since we expect a flat, we can predict a target for wave (b) as shown below.

B waves of expanded flats are usually 123.6% of the A wave.

Therefore:

123.6% of 161.41 = 199.50

Subtracting this value from the end of wave (a) gives us:

{4906.07 - 199.50} = 4706.57

And we don't expect wave (b) to be more than 138.2% of wave (a).

138.2% of 161.41 = 223.07

Thus, wave (b) should not go below: {4906.07 - 223.07} = 4683

As stated before, if 4683 is broken to the downside then we'll know that we are in the wave [iii].

SUMMARY:

NSE 20 Share Index is expected to bottom at (or near) 4706.57 then start a powerful move up in wave (c).


mnandi you are real veteran +




Thanks bro! smile
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#535 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 6:27:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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iris
#536 Posted : Monday, July 13, 2015 11:56:11 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:


I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level.


Shifting of goal posts? post #507
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mkonomtupu
#537 Posted : Monday, July 13, 2015 12:25:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@mnandii, good stuff.

Looking at the long term chart drawing a straight line under the troughs from Sept 02, March 09 and point X(2011), then 4000(or slightly below that) looks like the point at which the current correction will terminate. I would go with the alternate count that we are falling in wave[iii] targeting the 4,000 mark(although that depends if we breach 4,700 with no bounce back and then on how aggressive CBK is in shielding the kenya shilling from further loss- today we are 102.55 with no intervention)

Happy trading
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hisah
#538 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 2:02:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mkonomtupu wrote:
@mnandii, good stuff.

Looking at the long term chart drawing a straight line under the troughs from Sept 02, March 09 and point X(2011), then 4000(or slightly below that) looks like the point at which the current correction will terminate. I would go with the alternate count that we are falling in wave[iii] targeting the 4,000 mark(although that depends if we breach 4,700 with no bounce back and then on how aggressive CBK is in shielding the kenya shilling from further loss- today we are 102.55 with no intervention)

Happy trading


My expectation is for the slide to continue towards 4400 where the oversold conditions will be prime since there are no legs at 4500 - 4700 level after that 300bps rate hike by CBK. Then a bounce towards 4700 to retest former support and down again towards 3800 - 4000. There are still bullish hopefuls around. Below 4400 I expect these hopefuls to send the index in a steep dive towards 4000 or lower as capitulation hits the peak.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#539 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 5:28:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
iris wrote:
mnandii wrote:


I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level.


Shifting of goal posts? post #507


Oh yeah.

There I talked about 108 level but it's because of the source of the chart

quotenet.com

which only shows close prices rather than OHLC; and the chart itself has no cross hairs to enable measurement of a precise level.

I've shifted to using

investment.com
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#540 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 5:40:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mkonomtupu wrote:
@mnandii, good stuff.

Looking at the long term chart drawing a straight line under the troughs from Sept 02, March 09 and point X(2011), then 4000(or slightly below that) looks like the point at which the current correction will terminate. I would go with the alternate count that we are falling in wave[iii] targeting the 4,000 mark(although that depends if we breach 4,700 with no bounce back and then on how aggressive CBK is in shielding the kenya shilling from further loss- today we are 102.55 with no intervention)

Happy trading


I agree with you upto the point underlined. smile

In fact the alternate count is now my prefered choice. I'll keep posting as prices confirm.

I however do not agree with the part that is not underlined. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

i.e it does not matter what the Central Bank does! The government reacts to the market; it does not determine the direction of the market. What determines market direction is mass psychology.





Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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