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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#5381 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 4:27:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Where are we?should we expect any further downside or what we saw was the worst?I have some money to utilise

from macros perspective, i expect the USD bulls to chicken out just like the FED,offering the much needed relief to EM and FM currencies including Kenya, atleat in the short run. MPC will also put a freeze on the cbr hikes(for now) and this will be a good thing for NSE bulls.
Globally, i expect a gradual selloff in the US markets as investors begin to lose confidence in FED's ability to jump start the economy 7 years into easing. EM and FMs as well as gold will rally hard as a result.
Back to KE, i suggest you go in into liquid, solid stocks for ease of exit.

Short term reaction USD will be sold. But soon reality will strike back and USD will initiate another rally. Most likely the yen will be the reason. Yens, euros and pounds will go down before USD.

The bond market will puke soon forcing the USD rate hike as confidence evaporates. That hike will be sudden as the survival match begins. The chingman has fired a shot more are coming. Markets will tank as the bidless vacuum creates a sizable sink hole in the bond market when confidence evaporates from public debt as govts default.

2016 is still a sellside yr in my opinion. Gold will of course rally as public debt comes apart. Shaken confidence will focus trust in gold as capital flees govt/public debt.

A few yrs later equity holders that buy the selloff will be better of than bond holders owning worthless bonds with a lot of currency devaluation carnage.

Keep an eye on Japan, the confidence crisis will likely start there if not in the eurozone.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Ericsson
#5382 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 4:27:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Vultures preying on gems in the Nairobi Stock exchange.
Ata Kenya Re that we keep shunning it's being preyed and its on top ten list of Norwegian Pension Fund.

http://www.businessdaily...2/-/5l3royz/-/index.html
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Othelo
#5383 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 4:36:35 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
[quote=Ericsson]Vultures preying on gems in the Nairobi Stock exchange.
Ata Kenya Re that we keep shunning it's being preyed and its on top ten list of Norwegian Pension Fund.

http://www.businessdaily.../-/5l3royz/-/index.html[/quote]

From the Article of BD........

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund holdings includes a 2.86 per cent stake in ScanGroup, ARM Cement (1.65 per cent), Nation Media Group (1.06 per cent), KCB Group (0.97 per cent), Bamburi Cement (0.95 per cent) and 0.77 per cent Kenya Re shareholding.


Others are East African Breweries Ltd (0.69 per cent), Safaricom (0.33 per cent) Equity Bank (0.06 per cent), Mumias Sugar (0.05 per cent) and an undisclosed stake in Co-op Bank.

smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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lochaz-index
#5384 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 5:33:16 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Where are we?should we expect any further downside or what we saw was the worst?I have some money to utilise

from macros perspective, i expect the USD bulls to chicken out just like the FED,offering the much needed relief to EM and FM currencies including Kenya, atleat in the short run. MPC will also put a freeze on the cbr hikes(for now) and this will be a good thing for NSE bulls.
Globally, i expect a gradual selloff in the US markets as investors begin to lose confidence in FED's ability to jump start the economy 7 years into easing. EM and FMs as well as gold will rally hard as a result.
Back to KE, i suggest you go in into liquid, solid stocks for ease of exit.

Short term reaction USD will be sold. But soon reality will strike back and USD will initiate another rally. Most likely the yen will be the reason. Yens, euros and pounds will go down before USD.

The bond market will puke soon forcing the USD rate hike as confidence evaporates. That hike will be sudden as the survival match begins. The chingman has fired a shot more are coming. Markets will tank as the bidless vacuum creates a sizable sink hole in the bond market when confidence evaporates from public debt as govts default.

2016 is still a sellside yr in my opinion. Gold will of course rally as public debt comes apart. Shaken confidence will focus trust in gold as capital flees govt/public debt.

A few yrs later equity holders that buy the selloff will be better of than bond holders owning worthless bonds with a lot of currency devaluation carnage.

Keep an eye on Japan, the confidence crisis will likely start there if not in the eurozone.


Japan is like a financial Frankenstein lab.They surely have to go down first and trigger the crumbling of the house of cards.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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streetwise
#5385 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2015 7:18:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Since the percentages are so low you are allowed to used basis points instead of percentage e.g. increase the shareholding of EABL by 69 basis points
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mwekez@ji
#5386 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 11:26:31 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
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hisah
#5387 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 5:49:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
The bottom is near http://www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/14cl6sr/-/index.html

Not at all! Actually the market has just begun the downside journey! The next swift rebound that will ensue on this temporary bottom should be used as an 'out of jail' escape card.

Fundies are so horrible. GoK debt bomb will nuke this market next year. Then election fever will be there to spike the cocktail further.

From the cartoon world side, the market has consistently broken down crucial support levels. The break down of the 7yr support trendline pinned at the GFC low is a nasty signal. This trendline can also be extended towards the 2002 low to make it a 13yr support line. This is very bad and signals that maniac risk taking will be out the window and for a long time.

Globally junk bonds will cause chaos next year as the party stops. Keep an eye on the unfolding events at Deutsche bank and Glencore. They are also signalling that the maniac global risk taking party is coming to a halt soon.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Pesa Nane
#5388 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2015 6:14:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
......
all the pre-independence threads are revived!
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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murchr
#5389 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2015 6:22:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
We'll know this on Dec 18th
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#5390 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 5:27:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
We'll know this on Dec 18th

Dec 16 is the day the Fed may hike the USD funding rate. One messy affair coming up considering that ECB is cranking its QE at the same time. This won't end well Pray Pray

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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