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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
lochaes
#5361 Posted : Wednesday, May 13, 2015 8:54:36 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/30/2014
Posts: 86
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
NSE 4980.48 - May 13th


And the silence is deafening. you can hear admin drop a pin, with the silence here. Interestingly for me, despite NSE 20 being down almost 3%, I'm still in the green year to date. coz my laggards haven't moved down much.


Team laggards Laughing out loudly I want the prices to go lower to load up some more.
hisah
#5362 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 1:02:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
This is a good 'past paper' for revision. From pages 69+ smile

Indeed. I never thot this thread would run this long...

Btw I'm still uncomfy at this elevated indices heights with all these profit warnings and thin volume! Weak bull legs... The saving grace is weak oil prices. A sharp rebound on oil prices will make things very messy with all these earnings warnings.

Also got beef with NSE on the same. Warnings are issued for a current FY and 3 months in advance. The current warnings have violated the 90 day prior rule and some after FY has closed! What a shame NSE Shame on you. Global markets don't run this way.

Stated back in Feb.

Finally I can return to updating this thread when the bulls have been decimated!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#5363 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 9:01:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
I don't see a bear. The numbers on Co-op & KCB don't indicate that.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mlennyma
#5364 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2015 2:08:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
This topic is valid,somebody remind me the summarised answer.I can't read 5,363 posts.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
theking
#5365 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 12:24:52 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/25/2010
Posts: 344
carb 17 nic 51 cfc 103 Jesu mwega, kuungua proper
mlennyma
#5366 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 12:34:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Cfc insurance and unga group are intact,what drug do they take??
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
littledove
#5367 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 12:52:11 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
mlennyma wrote:
Cfc insurance and unga group are intact,what drug do they take??

I have noticed that especially on cfci its like somebody has been keen to pick any supply below 25
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
S.Mutaga III
#5368 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 2:07:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
littledove wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Cfc insurance and unga group are intact,what drug do they take??

I have noticed that especially on cfci its like somebody has been keen to pick any supply below 25

Probably the parent company
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
hisah
#5369 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 8:53:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
When the sovereign bond market bottom falls out the initial reaction will be both global bonds and equities will nosedive. But since this will be a sovereign bond crisis the initial equities crash will be a nice opportunity to buy. Once the smoke clears and investors see the sovereign debt crisis they'll pile into stocks heavily as public debt is trashed vs private debt.

This wealth transfer event will favour equities vs real estate and commodities. Bonds wil be thrown in the dustbin. Those funds that really on the bond market only will lose a lot of money and may even shutdown! Pension funds and savings will be bailed in as governments grab those cookie jar to save the sovereign debt market.

This is why I've resisted to advocate for the money market as equities selloff since this is a false reaction! Capital will definitely fly out of government market into private debt (stocks or corporates bonds etc). We will see a lot of revolts across the globe when govt pension funds get raided.

When this happens equities will reverse their initial selloff and recoup all the losses and stage a major rally for the next decade until the next rotation cycle into commodities or real estate.

I'm putting this here as a reminder for the equities major bottom signal.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#5370 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 9:21:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
When the sovereign bond market bottom falls out the initial reaction will be both global bonds and equities will nosedive. But since this will be a sovereign bond crisis the initial equities crash will be a nice opportunity to buy. Once the smoke clears and investors see the sovereign debt crisis they'll pile into stocks heavily as public debt is trashed vs private debt.

This wealth transfer event will favour equities vs real estate and commodities. Bonds wil be thrown in the dustbin. Those funds that really on the bond market only will lose a lot of money and may even shutdown! Pension funds and savings will be bailed in as governments grab those cookie jar to save the sovereign debt market.

This is why I've resisted to advocate for the money market as equities selloff since this is a false reaction! Capital will definitely fly out of government market into private debt (stocks or corporates bonds etc). We will see a lot of revolts across the globe when govt pension funds get raided.

When this happens equities will reverse their initial selloff and recoup all the losses and stage a major rally for the next decade until the next rotation cycle into commodities or real estate.

I'm putting this here as a reminder for the equities major bottom signal.


God Forbid-oh... that markets have to act for Sovereigns to reign in wasteful chopping of money.
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