wazua Thu, Mar 19, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

543 Pages«<531532533534535>»
Investors Lounge
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
wukan
#5321 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2018 2:57:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
No respite for EM/FMs and the weaker AMs for the coming year as the neutral FFR is projected to close at around 3.25%. This represents a 100bps hike from current level. More capital flight(risk off) and a strong USD are a certainty in that environment. If the dollar gains undue momentum from the resultant actions then it won't be pretty.

In general if the hike projection holds, we should be looking at an average 20% shaving for EM/FM stocks in 2019.

With the midterms risk event out of the way, the recent market choppiness should desist as economic health of various economies take center stage again. The ensuing trend should close out the year as losers and gainers take stock.

Short term bounce in EM/FM for now then turns down as the last fed hike for 2018 comes into focus again.


unfortunately the mid terms did not give markets a decisive answer on where America wants to go. Feels like Brexit so you can't tell if they want in or out, dollar weaker or stronger, more trade wars or less. When they enter into a recession maybe the direction will be clear. EM/FM economies which show strength will attract more capital.
Back to top
  |
lochaz-index
#5322 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2018 8:50:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
No respite for EM/FMs and the weaker AMs for the coming year as the neutral FFR is projected to close at around 3.25%. This represents a 100bps hike from current level. More capital flight(risk off) and a strong USD are a certainty in that environment. If the dollar gains undue momentum from the resultant actions then it won't be pretty.

In general if the hike projection holds, we should be looking at an average 20% shaving for EM/FM stocks in 2019.

With the midterms risk event out of the way, the recent market choppiness should desist as economic health of various economies take center stage again. The ensuing trend should close out the year as losers and gainers take stock.

Short term bounce in EM/FM for now then turns down as the last fed hike for 2018 comes into focus again.


unfortunately the mid terms did not give markets a decisive answer on where America wants to go. Feels like Brexit so you can't tell if they want in or out, dollar weaker or stronger, more trade wars or less. When they enter into a recession maybe the direction will be clear. EM/FM economies which show strength will attract more capital.

Without a definitive or drastic change, I expect the trend prior to the midterms to continue where capital was gravitating to the blue chip AMs and the weaklings get slaughtered. The midterms weren't the biggest risk event so any volatility emanating from such should subside. Short of democrats attempting an impeachment wouldn't worry about the political situation in the US.

On brexit, their PM might be ousted before the formalization of any exit arrangement. Biggest risk would be if Corbyn somehow managed to take over the reigns...that would be a shorting paradise for anything British.

The most interesting political angle is in relation to the EU. Both Merkel and Macron in the Germany-France axis that runs the EU have huge problems with the former losing elections and offering to step down in 2021. The latter is falling in the polls but the kicker is that in both countries an extreme right (eurosceptics) candidate could take over. The implications for the EU and euro would be profound if that happened.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  |
lochaz-index
#5323 Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2018 3:08:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Interesting stuff by VTB lending to CAR by 'mistake'.
Quote:
The impoverished state of Central African Republic landed a windfall on Tuesday, at least on paper, when Russian state bank VTB reported it had lent the country $12 billion — but the bank then said it was a clerical error and there was no such loan
Quote:
In the table next to Central African Republic was the sum of 801,933,814,000 rubles ($12 billion) — more than six times the country’s annual economic output.
https://www.reuters.com/...by-mistake-idUSKCN1NW28A
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, November 28, 2018 4:11 PM | Reason: Not specified
Angelica _ann
#5324 Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2018 8:08:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
[quote=lochaz-index]Interesting stuff by VTB lending to CAR by 'mistake'.
Quote:
The impoverished state of Central African Republic landed a windfall on Tuesday, at least on paper, when Russian state bank VTB reported it had lent the country $12 billion — but the bank then said it was a clerical error and there was no such loan
Quote:
In the table next to Central African Republic was the sum of 801,933,814,000 rubles ($12 billion) — more than six times the country’s annual economic output.
https://www.reuters.com/...y-mistake-idUSKCN1NW28A[/quote]

What that tells you is that their leadership are hidding chums in that bank. Things don't just pop from nowhere.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Back to top
  |
mamilli
#5325 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2018 9:28:14 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 249
Location: Nairobi
Long BTC,short the BANKSTERS.

https://www.reuters.com/...ction-team-idUSKCN1OM0LJ
Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
Back to top
  |
rwitre
#5326 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2018 9:32:14 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi
mamilli wrote:
Long BTC,short the BANKSTERS.

https://www.reuters.com/...tion-team-idUSKCN1OM0LJ


Bitcoin's value as an uncorrelated asset being witnessed in real-time.
Back to top
WWW
  |
mnandii
#5327 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2020 9:15:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
DOW WILL FALL FALL OFF THE SKY SOON.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
Ericsson
#5328 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2020 9:35:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
DOW WILL FALL FALL OFF THE SKY SOON.




And NSE?
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Back to top
WWW
  |
slick
#5329 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 7:40:55 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
DOW WILL FALL FALL OFF THE SKY SOON.




And NSE?



I dont think the Dow will fall in the immediate future.The Federal Reserve is pumping lots of liquidity into the financial markets via on average 100 Billion USD/day in the repurchase agreements (repo) market and purchases of short term Treasury Bills of upto 60 billion a month akin to the Quantitative Easing (QE)Programs in prior years.Also global investors from Europe and Japan are piling into US equities and bonds to escape negative yielding bonds in both the Eurozone and Japan.These 2 factors have kept the Dow,S&P 500,NASDAQ hitting all time highs almost daily with the Dow touching 29,000.Its all a bubble but Fed liquidity may keep the bubble getting even bigger.With the US-Iran situation having calmed down,markets can go higher.Only caveat is if the US-China dont sign their Phase 1 trade deal and if there is a hard Brexit.Long term the Dow may fall but at least not in the short term.If it falls,the Fed will once again come to the rescue with even more repo liquidity injections and more QE plus lower Fed Funds rate.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
Back to top
  |
Ericsson
#5330 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 10:11:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
slick wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
DOW WILL FALL FALL OFF THE SKY SOON.




And NSE?



I dont think the Dow will fall in the immediate future.The Federal Reserve is pumping lots of liquidity into the financial markets via on average 100 Billion USD/day in the repurchase agreements (repo) market and purchases of short term Treasury Bills of upto 60 billion a month akin to the Quantitative Easing (QE)Programs in prior years.Also global investors from Europe and Japan are piling into US equities and bonds to escape negative yielding bonds in both the Eurozone and Japan.These 2 factors have kept the Dow,S&P 500,NASDAQ hitting all time highs almost daily with the Dow touching 29,000.Its all a bubble but Fed liquidity may keep the bubble getting even bigger.With the US-Iran situation having calmed down,markets can go higher.Only caveat is if the US-China dont sign their Phase 1 trade deal and if there is a hard Brexit.Long term the Dow may fall but at least not in the short term.If it falls,the Fed will once again come to the rescue with even more repo liquidity injections and more QE plus lower Fed Funds rate.



Well explained.
Where are the brains to do such moves in Kenya
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Back to top
WWW
  |
543 Pages«<531532533534535>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.