2015 starts with two elements that ensures volatility will be visiting NSE. All happening in Q1 when most FY results are announced. The two elements are: -
1. CGT - already confusion reighs; bad signal
2. New head of CBK
http://www.businessdaily.../-/stue96z/-/index.html
CBK is the most crucial change and will likely trigger volatility. A dovish CBK head means liquidity tightness thus cooling the markets (equity/real estate). A hawkish CBK head means liquidity taps open supporting the markets.
Waiting for the CBK change. Two options, major shakeout or a hard rally above the 6000 handle! Since Ndungu became CBK head in 2007 the market has struggled to regain the 5000 handle.
Btw Andrew Mullei briefly broke the Kikuyu-Kalenjin CBK succession cycle back in 2003-2007 period when NSE20 charged to madness utopia (6161). The CB change cycle has been in place since 1967! The Ndegwas held it from 1967 till 1988!
Volatility or whiplash, newbies will hate this up/down to nowhere behaviour as the market bulls and bears wrestle to determine who's in charge.
Will the new CB head kill the 2012 bottom?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!