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maka
#5311 Posted : Monday, September 10, 2018 8:50:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
maka wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Wororo wrote:
South Africa in technical recession...

The SA Rand plummets after recession announcements...

Alot of pain awaits South Africa. It is instructive to note that it is the agricultural sector that had the largest decline. Coupled with the overall EM rout, their policy misstep will make this a brutal ride....the rand will depreciate to ridiculous levels if the decision makers press forward with populist policies.



Waaah the rand has taken a proper beating....

I dare say the worst is yet to come. My target is at least 30 to the USD.



Jeez get serious....d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
possunt quia posse videntur
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Angelica _ann
#5312 Posted : Monday, September 10, 2018 9:31:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
[quote=lochaz-index]2018 hasn't been kind to the crypto fanbase. An average 72% (77% if adjusted for new issues) of the market cap has been wiped out...not even bitcoin itself has been spared having lost 68%. The harder they rallied the faster and harder they have fallen...ripple for example has tanked 92%. Market behaves the same way irrespective of the instrument being traded where euphoria marks the peak and begins the inevitable downside.

As if that wasn't bad enough if one took a large position on some of these cryptos exiting now is an excruciatingly hard affair seeing as volumes have plummeted and there are very few bids. Little wonder all the crypto threads went dead along with the new converts. https://www.bloomberg.co...as-ether-leads-declines[/quote]

#CrypoCurrency went mia!!!smile smile smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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wukan
#5313 Posted : Monday, September 10, 2018 9:36:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
2018 hasn't been kind to the crypto fanbase. An average 72% (77% if adjusted for new issues) of the market cap has been wiped out...not even bitcoin itself has been spared having lost 68%. The harder they rallied the faster and harder they have fallen...ripple for example has tanked 92%. Market behaves the same way irrespective of the instrument being traded where euphoria marks the peak and begins the inevitable downside.

As if that wasn't bad enough if one took a large position on some of these cryptos exiting now is an excruciatingly hard affair seeing as volumes have plummeted and there are very few bids. Little wonder all the crypto threads went dead along with the new converts. https://www.bloomberg.co...as-ether-leads-declines


#CrypoCurrency went mia!!!smile smile smile


The Pharaohs still need your money for their pharonic projects keep your crypto safesmile smile

Quote:
Deputy President William Ruto yesterday said the government requires additional resources to propel the country’s development agenda.

Ruto’s statement comes as the executive is expected to engage the National Assembly today on the 16 per cent value added tax on fuel products.

Speaking at a fundraiser in Gikondi, Nyeri, Ruto said he is optimistic they will gather enough cash to fund development projects. “We will ensure we have enough money to push matters of development.”...
https://www.the-star.co....for-growth-dp_c1815931.
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muandiwambeu
#5314 Posted : Monday, September 10, 2018 10:58:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
wukan wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
2018 hasn't been kind to the crypto fanbase. An average 72% (77% if adjusted for new issues) of the market cap has been wiped out...not even bitcoin itself has been spared having lost 68%. The harder they rallied the faster and harder they have fallen...ripple for example has tanked 92%. Market behaves the same way irrespective of the instrument being traded where euphoria marks the peak and begins the inevitable downside.

As if that wasn't bad enough if one took a large position on some of these cryptos exiting now is an excruciatingly hard affair seeing as volumes have plummeted and there are very few bids. Little wonder all the crypto threads went dead along with the new converts. https://www.bloomberg.co...as-ether-leads-declines


#CrypoCurrency went mia!!!smile smile smile


The Pharaohs still need your money for their pharonic projects keep your crypto safesmile smile

Quote:
Deputy President William Ruto yesterday said the government requires additional resources to propel the country’s development agenda.

Ruto’s statement comes as the executive is expected to engage the National Assembly today on the 16 per cent value added tax on fuel products.

Speaking at a fundraiser in Gikondi, Nyeri, Ruto said he is optimistic they will gather enough cash to fund development projects. “We will ensure we have enough money to push matters of development.”...
https://www.the-star.co....for-growth-dp_c1815931.

Wacha a wo/man make Moni in Kenia, buat an aspiring president should make the money swealter for this economy to ticker. After wewe ukitengeneza pesa si unapeleka kwa Uncle Sam with tears and sackers on it. I need a president who has the expirience of where to jump , how to jump and jumping high, that he may not stammer in telling me how high I should jump to come down with the damn fruit and the tax there off.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Ericsson
#5315 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2018 9:44:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
2018 hasn't been kind to the crypto fanbase. An average 72% (77% if adjusted for new issues) of the market cap has been wiped out...not even bitcoin itself has been spared having lost 68%. The harder they rallied the faster and harder they have fallen...ripple for example has tanked 92%. Market behaves the same way irrespective of the instrument being traded where euphoria marks the peak and begins the inevitable downside.

As if that wasn't bad enough if one took a large position on some of these cryptos exiting now is an excruciatingly hard affair seeing as volumes have plummeted and there are very few bids. Little wonder all the crypto threads went dead along with the new converts. https://www.bloomberg.co...as-ether-leads-declines


#CrypoCurrency went mia!!!smile smile smile


The Pharaohs still need your money for their pharonic projects keep your crypto safesmile smile

Quote:
Deputy President William Ruto yesterday said the government requires additional resources to propel the country’s development agenda.

Ruto’s statement comes as the executive is expected to engage the National Assembly today on the 16 per cent value added tax on fuel products.

Speaking at a fundraiser in Gikondi, Nyeri, Ruto said he is optimistic they will gather enough cash to fund development projects. “We will ensure we have enough money to push matters of development.”...
https://www.the-star.co....for-growth-dp_c1815931.


Enough cash for development means more tenders for him and cash to pocket
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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maka
#5316 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2018 9:54:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
2018 hasn't been kind to the crypto fanbase. An average 72% (77% if adjusted for new issues) of the market cap has been wiped out...not even bitcoin itself has been spared having lost 68%. The harder they rallied the faster and harder they have fallen...ripple for example has tanked 92%. Market behaves the same way irrespective of the instrument being traded where euphoria marks the peak and begins the inevitable downside.

As if that wasn't bad enough if one took a large position on some of these cryptos exiting now is an excruciatingly hard affair seeing as volumes have plummeted and there are very few bids. Little wonder all the crypto threads went dead along with the new converts. https://www.bloomberg.co...as-ether-leads-declines


#CrypoCurrency went mia!!!smile smile smile


The Pharaohs still need your money for their pharonic projects keep your crypto safesmile smile

Quote:
Deputy President William Ruto yesterday said the government requires additional resources to propel the country’s development agenda.

Ruto’s statement comes as the executive is expected to engage the National Assembly today on the 16 per cent value added tax on fuel products.

Speaking at a fundraiser in Gikondi, Nyeri, Ruto said he is optimistic they will gather enough cash to fund development projects. “We will ensure we have enough money to push matters of development.”...
https://www.the-star.co....for-growth-dp_c1815931.


Enough cash for development means more tenders for him and cash to pocket


Why do we entertain this guy lakini?
possunt quia posse videntur
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lochaz-index
#5317 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2018 6:51:34 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
maka wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
maka wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Wororo wrote:
South Africa in technical recession...

The SA Rand plummets after recession announcements...

Alot of pain awaits South Africa. It is instructive to note that it is the agricultural sector that had the largest decline. Coupled with the overall EM rout, their policy misstep will make this a brutal ride....the rand will depreciate to ridiculous levels if the decision makers press forward with populist policies.



Waaah the rand has taken a proper beating....

I dare say the worst is yet to come. My target is at least 30 to the USD.



Jeez get serious....d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

Consider this:

1. Agricultural sector contracted the most (close to 30%) QoQ. Since this has been triggered by a populist policy, it is reasonable to expect the same performance or worse, up and until the elections are held next year. That implies increased imports for an already lopsided BoP.

2. Land prices have tanked 32% since late last year. This trend will likely persist till some assurances are made or the seizure is abandoned altogether. You can imagine the havoc it will create in the economy especially for those properties which have been used as collateral in the banks...some owners could simply walk away from the property and the bank is left to dispose it at a pittance vs the borrowed amount.

3. South Africa is generally the first stop for investors/capital flows looking for exposure in the African capital markets. Hot money will be looking for the quickest exit from the rainbow nation as soon as forceful seizure of properties takes off. When inflows turn into outflows enmasse, the fate that awaits the rand will be similar/worse to what happened to the Turkish lira...reserves are quickly depleted in a futile attempt to defend a currency on weak fundies and unable to attract more funds.

4. Being mineral rich, South Africa - like all commodity dependent economies - is heavily reliant on the purchasing power of China. A bad year for the Chinese economy (very likely in 2019 seeing as the yuan is acting up) means a bad year for SA...this is already apparent for platinum prices/forex where it is the largest producer.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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the deal
#5318 Posted : Tuesday, September 11, 2018 11:25:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
lochaz-index wrote:
maka wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
maka wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Wororo wrote:
South Africa in technical recession...

The SA Rand plummets after recession announcements...

Alot of pain awaits South Africa. It is instructive to note that it is the agricultural sector that had the largest decline. Coupled with the overall EM rout, their policy misstep will make this a brutal ride....the rand will depreciate to ridiculous levels if the decision makers press forward with populist policies.


Land seizures won't happen anytime soon... Biggest risk is China slowing down & trade Trump tantrums... Currency is oversold at this levels... But it can still hit 17 later in the year


Waaah the rand has taken a proper beating....

I dare say the worst is yet to come. My target is at least 30 to the USD.



Jeez get serious....d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

Consider this:

1. Agricultural sector contracted the most (close to 30%) QoQ. Since this has been triggered by a populist policy, it is reasonable to expect the same performance or worse, up and until the elections are held next year. That implies increased imports for an already lopsided BoP.

2. Land prices have tanked 32% since late last year. This trend will likely persist till some assurances are made or the seizure is abandoned altogether. You can imagine the havoc it will create in the economy especially for those properties which have been used as collateral in the banks...some owners could simply walk away from the property and the bank is left to dispose it at a pittance vs the borrowed amount.

3. South Africa is generally the first stop for investors/capital flows looking for exposure in the African capital markets. Hot money will be looking for the quickest exit from the rainbow nation as soon as forceful seizure of properties takes off. When inflows turn into outflows enmasse, the fate that awaits the rand will be similar/worse to what happened to the Turkish lira...reserves are quickly depleted in a futile attempt to defend a currency on weak fundies and unable to attract more funds.

4. Being mineral rich, South Africa - like all commodity dependent economies - is heavily reliant on the purchasing power of China. A bad year for the Chinese economy (very likely in 2019 seeing as the yuan is acting up) means a bad year for SA...this is already apparent for platinum prices/forex where it is the largest producer.

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lochaz-index
#5319 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:51:11 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
No respite for EM/FMs and the weaker AMs for the coming year as the neutral FFR is projected to close at around 3.25%. This represents a 100bps hike from current level. More capital flight(risk off) and a strong USD are a certainty in that environment. If the dollar gains undue momentum from the resultant actions then it won't be pretty.

In general if the hike projection holds, we should be looking at an average 20% shaving for EM/FM stocks in 2019.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index
#5320 Posted : Wednesday, November 07, 2018 2:37:51 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
No respite for EM/FMs and the weaker AMs for the coming year as the neutral FFR is projected to close at around 3.25%. This represents a 100bps hike from current level. More capital flight(risk off) and a strong USD are a certainty in that environment. If the dollar gains undue momentum from the resultant actions then it won't be pretty.

In general if the hike projection holds, we should be looking at an average 20% shaving for EM/FM stocks in 2019.

With the midterms risk event out of the way, the recent market choppiness should desist as economic health of various economies take center stage again. The ensuing trend should close out the year as losers and gainers take stock.

Short term bounce in EM/FM for now then turns down as the last fed hike for 2018 comes into focus again.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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