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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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The Venezuela stock market is on hyperinflation steroids  Quote:the Venezuela Stock Market (IBVC) increased 58680 points or 36.52% to 219356 on Thursday August 16 from 160676 in the previous trading session.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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EM sell off continues...enter Zambia. Quote:Zambia’s Eurobonds have lost 10 percent this month, more than any of the 75 countries in the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD Sovereign Bond Index. That’s extended their decline to 23 percent this year and sent spreads over U.S. Treasuries soaring to more than 1,000 basis points. A snap shot of their metrics Quote:Zambia was one of Africa’s most prolific borrowers in the Eurobond market between 2012 and 2015, selling $3 billion of debt. It also took on loans from Chinese state firms, some of which it’s trying to renegotiate. The government’s debt load will rise to 66 percent of gross domestic product this year, more than triple the figure a decade ago, according to the IMF. The Washington-based lender says Zambia’s 2018 budget shortfall will be almost 8 percent of GDP, the highest among sub-Saharan African dollar-bond issuers https://www.bloomberg.co...s-hit-1-000-basis-pointsThe main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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SA might be staring at the perfect storm as the EM rout picks its prey one by one. Quote:Let’s call this the house of ‘bad economics”. Typically, these are countries that spend too much, borrow too much and save too little. The hallmarks of such economies are twin deficits, a lack of policy credibility, fiscal laxity, and a huge reliance on external funding. Unfortunately KE exhibits most of these characteristics if not all of them. Don't know how long the govt can stay the VAT on petroleum products and repealing of the interest caps given it also seeking an IMF bailout. For now it is a stay of execution perhaps to be enforced when desperation kicks in. Quote:It is highly plausible that when faced with questions on what spending to cut or what tax to raise, politicians will answer with a third question: how much more borrowing will the market let us get away with? On the former, the self-reinforcing feedback loop of higher yields, higher financing stress, higher credit risk and then back to higher yields is one with plenty historical precedent. Most EMs/FMs are in this this boat currently. Question is for how long? Parting shot Quote:Markets will also be highly reactive due to the potential for sudden deteriorations: as Hemingway said, when describing the process by which he personally went bankrupt: these things happen gradually, then suddenly Like a waterfall, for SA the rout won't be kind with their expropriation without compensation crusade https://www.biznews.com/..._twitter_impression=trueThe main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Enter the ugly duckling... Argentina finds itself in a bizarro/twilight financial zone with a self reinforcing doom loop of defaults, more austerity, cratering currency and parabolic increases in interest rates. Quote:Argentina’s central bank pumped up interest rates by 15 percentage points to 60 per cent on Thursday after the peso resumed its plunge in early trading. The existential threat of any govt...civil uprisings. Quote:“I expect the IMF to demand an even lower primary deficit in 2019, and social unrest will undoubtedly increase,” he said. https://amp.ft.com/conte..._twitter_impression=trueThe main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout. Quote:The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low. Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade. Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year. ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...mp;utm_campaign=whatsappThe main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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lochaz-index wrote:This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout. Quote:The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low. Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade. Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year. ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout. Quote:The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low. Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade. Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year. ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty Very true... But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented... The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly... That includes the number of counties too... Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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Wororo wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout. Quote:The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low. Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade. Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year. ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty Very true... But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented... The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly... That includes the number of counties too... Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better... Devolution is God's gift to Kenya.. Which County would you want to scrap?
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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obiero wrote:Wororo wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout. Quote:The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low. Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade. Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year. ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty Very true... But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented... The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly... That includes the number of counties too... Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better... Devolution is God's gift to Kenya.. Which County would you want to scrap? @Obiero, didn't imply scrapping off devolution/counties per se but instead, merging counties to reduce the running/administtation costs ... Plus improving the realization, agility and sustainability of various projects which ideally with the current high fragmentation requires several adjacent and regional counties to simultaneously come together to execute the same... Devolution has indeed been a blessing to all Kenyans be it directly or indirectly...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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Wororo wrote:obiero wrote:Wororo wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:This doesn't look good for all EMs/FMs without exception. Hold on to your hats this could be a blowout. Quote:The MSCI EM index of currencies is down 2.2 percent for August as of 10:18 a.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low. Looks like risk off season is here and this could evolve into a particularly nasty contagion given QE's largesse over the last decade. Particularly disconcerting is that this isn't emanating from USD strength but rather from capital flight. Heck the blood bath from the EM/FM sell off is impacting on AMs specifically, Italy. Yields be spiking despite local banks buying out foreign investor bond sales to create bids. With the ECB set to end their QE one can only imagine how bad it will look next year. ION Zambia and Kenya are the poorest performers in the eurobond market YTD. I expect sustained on KES and continued sell off at the NSE as investors scamper off. Just like in the stock market, when the music stops it is the weak economies (joyriders punching above their weight) that get culled first. https://www.bloomberg.co...p;utm_campaign=whatsapp When I see wazuans cheering Mps for saving them from the VAT on fuel and rate caps, I just keep quiet. The hard landing will be nasty Very true... But on the bright side, the recession will make Kenyans realize that politically we are over-represented... The legislative and the county membership ought to be trimmed down significantly... That includes the number of counties too... Alot will be required to be done to bounce back even better... Devolution is God's gift to Kenya.. Which County would you want to scrap? @Obiero, didn't imply scrapping off devolution/counties per se but instead, merging counties to reduce the running/administtation costs ... Plus improving the realization, agility and sustainability of various projects which ideally with the current high fragmentation requires several adjacent and regional counties to simultaneously come together to execute the same... Devolution has indeed been a blessing to all Kenyans be it directly or indirectly... Well said
KQ ABP 4.26
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