@Obi nowadays i dont bother with these bonychestthumpers wait and see

The bottom line will be:

1) Who has registered more since 2013
2) Campaign these last 40 days matter
3) Gains/Losses - who has gained/lost areas since 2013. Whats the net effect?
4) Turnout in August.

@FRM, come look at these numbers

http://www.the-star.co.k...remain-the-same_c1588737

[quote=washiku]@FRM, come look at these numbers

http://www.the-star.co.k...emain-the-same_c1588737[/quote]
That analysis assumes Raila gets exactly the same % in western. It should add Musalia's numbers to his

[quote=washiku]@FRM, come look at these numbers

http://www.the-star.co.k...emain-the-same_c1588737[/quote]

We did early in the morning and ignored them.

When someone says NASA will get 53% and Jubilee 28% of votes in western, you know you don't even need to bother looking at the data anymore. And the balance goes to Jirongo apparently.

For perspective this is how Uhuru fared in western in 2013.

Kakamega - 2%
Vihiga - 1%
Bungoma - 12%
Busia - 7%

Weighted average - 6%

Does anyone believe that Uhuru's support base in Western has grown 4-fold ? Kila mtu ajijazie.

As much as crowds do not translate to votes the enthusiasm displayed in kitui Jubilee's rally yesterday looked liked it was somewhere in muranga.

I vowed to stop uploading photos. But there is one of chiefs and their assistants collecting t-shirts in mwingi for their people.

In Embu, you don't want to see the actual photos of the president's rally. Had a crowd of less than 2000. But we know they will still vote Jubilee 90%.

We need the enthusiasm! In 2013,UK won by more then 800k votes,but only 8000 pushed him over the silly plus 1 %
So this enthusiasm will translate to some votes,haba na haba
Rs

It may not have grown 4-fold but i am 100% certain Jubilee will do far much better in the counties of Bungoma and Kakamega, there will be a slight improvement in Busia but Vihiga will stick to NASA. I premise this on the following:

1. In Bungoma, support for either party is split in the middle and this has been brought about by the fact that, Wangamati,Khangati and Weta come from Sirisia, while Lusaka is from Webuye. There is, therefore quite some support for Jubilee in Webuye and Kimilili (cosmopolitan). The Sabaots have been sidelined in the matrix and you can guess where their votes belong to.

2. Some former Amani seats in Kakamega will definitely fall to Jubilee. Here, i have in mind Navakholo, Mumias East and Matungu. Mumias West will vote approx 30% Jubilee ( I will not elaborate). Overall, Uhuru got Approx 65K votes in the entire region. If he doubles this figure (He surely will), he will have over-achieved.