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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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VituVingiSana
#521 Posted : Thursday, July 09, 2015 12:28:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana;
There will be no rights issue for the case of Uchumi.
So long as their is goodwill from customers revival without rights issue is possible.
Bear in mind now that there is a freeze in expansion;maximise on the current branches.

There will be a 'dilution' in the works whether by sale to a Strategic Investor or a Rights Issue or Debt Conversion. Anyway, I have no stake in it so doesn't bother me BUT I feel sorry to see such a brand die or be diminished.

The sale of the land may not be as easy (or immediate) as it sounds with the current interest rates and 'tight' market for cash. Plus the cash is going to repay debtors [which is good] but not expansion.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mnandii
#522 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 10:58:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Action on the NSE 20 share Index from the 5499 level so far.



Expect a three wave (A, B, C) move this month to complete wave [2] as depicted on the chart.

Wave A should terminate at approx. 5100.

NB. There is a possibility of one more drop below 4786.74 before wave A commences.




Bwana these waves are too much . In layman's language when you say commences on wave A does it mean that we are going through another round of serious beatings ama it's over . Some of us don't understand this waves .In simple words is it getting worse or it will easen up



NSE 20 share Index is likely in a (B) wave. However, my chart source at Financial Times is not loading so I will post a chart as soon as will be possible.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#523 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:00:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The Head of Elliott Wave International's Educational Resources, Wayne Gorman, has 30+ years of experience as a risk manager and trader. He began his career at Citibank, managing trades in money markets and derivatives. He's also traded full-time with his own capital using Elliott waves.

Get Wayne's recommendation on the best way to learn the Wave Principle in this interview.

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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#524 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:02:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The Fastest, Self-Directed path to Elliott Wave Success
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#525 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:05:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana;
There will be no rights issue for the case of Uchumi.
So long as their is goodwill from customers revival without rights issue is possible.
Bear in mind now that there is a freeze in expansion;maximise on the current branches.

There will be a 'dilution' in the works whether by sale to a Strategic Investor or a Rights Issue or Debt Conversion. Anyway, I have no stake in it so doesn't bother me BUT I feel sorry to see such a brand die or be diminished.

The sale of the land may not be as easy (or immediate) as it sounds with the current interest rates and 'tight' market for cash. Plus the cash is going to repay debtors [which is good] but not expansion.


Also, the land is only valuable if it is sold now. Guys should note that we expect even land prices to fall alot. Sad
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#526 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:13:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?

It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.



smile smile

We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this!

2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.

MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.

USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.

I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.


Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then.

Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis.


Oil Price will Fall Definitely!

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#527 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:20:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Massive rate hike but still KES has no legs! USD/KES closed @101.95 yesterday!

So are we soon to see CBK start china like market intervention? "Arrest the KES short sellers blah blah blah?"
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#528 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 5:13:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
Massive rate hike but still KES has no legs! USD/KES closed @101.95 yesterday!

So are we soon to see CBK start china like market intervention? "Arrest the KES short sellers blah blah blah?"


There's something most are not getting;

1. The dollar is getting stronger because the economy is on steroids, this is even worrying US exporters because their exports are now expensive.

2. The tightening of the US monetary policy or even the hint of it coming up is driving the dollar up.

what will rescue KE is pumping out exports (More flowers, minerals, tea, coffee, etc) or bring in more tourists. Increase tax on non - essential imports (esp cloths) Encourage FDI. Hakuna namna ingine
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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mnandii
#529 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 3:33:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
Massive rate hike but still KES has no legs! USD/KES closed @101.95 yesterday!

So are we soon to see CBK start china like market intervention? "Arrest the KES short sellers blah blah blah?"

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#530 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 3:42:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
NSE 20 Share Index

Long term chart



Please note the change in labels.

Wave (A) ending on March '09 is better counted as a zigzag rather than an impulse.

Wave (B) now consists of waves W, X and Y (in green colour). The implication of this labelling is that wave (B) has either ended at 5499.64 as on Mar.' 15 OR we may have one more final move above 5499.64 since B waves of flats retrace at least 90% of A waves.

In the short term however, a move toward 4000 level is expected soon.

Short term chart coming up.

Regards.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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