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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:When mpesa bank bollinger bands (BB) constrict, it's that time to pay close attention to the market. Constricted BB mean a breakout (up/down move) is coming. Mpesa bank's heavy index weight influences the overall market direction.
NSE20 climb stalled in Nov 2013 and has dipped to test 4700 with 5000 still a steely resistance zone. NSE20 also face constricted BB and has broken lower.
Mpesa bank price has also stalled with 13 level rejecting advance.
Is it that time for the discounts season?
Is cbk going to hike cbr?
Is KES about to take it in the chin vs $?
Is the tbill rate heading past 11% and higher?
Is inflation going to vault past 10%
Is KE GDP really going to print 4.5% - forget those rosy estimates of plus 5%?
The eurobond trump card ensures $ demand will be high to repay the $ bond interest. If GDP is shrinking where will the KES needed to buy the $ for repayments come from in 2014/2015? If commercial oil flow delays more KES weakness is expected.
KE Macroecon not rosy in 2014/2015 time frame. For short term outlook I expect KES to continue sliding, tbill rates to head up as inflation climbs forcing cbk to hike cbr at some point. Bad for an econ on slow down, but a necessity to firm KES.
Equities don't rally in austerity period and austerity is here though quietly!? Consumer dependent counters to head south in process as consumers cut back spending. Have you been spending less this year or planning to do so (both as a person or biz)? That means less KES movement in the econ (econ slump).
IMO I don't see any upside above 5000 at NSE20. Easier to test 4400 than race above 5k level. Look out for discounts, cheap rights issues etc. Trust WB to always hype things and then suddenly retract like they couldn't see it coming. Bure kabisa.
World Bank cuts Kenya growth forecast for 2014
Quote:The World Bank said Kenya's economy will expand 4.7 percent this year, shaving 0.5 percentage points from its previous estimate six months ago. The bank projects growth to remain the same in 2015. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. good call. the stocks look lively of late is it the calm before the storm, maybe still the sideways trading. did u read the pwc 2019 hospitality report its interesting. you'd think KE ain't an alshabaab attacks hot zone. anyway half yr results will give direction on the industry The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:When mpesa bank bollinger bands (BB) constrict, it's that time to pay close attention to the market. Constricted BB mean a breakout (up/down move) is coming. Mpesa bank's heavy index weight influences the overall market direction.
NSE20 climb stalled in Nov 2013 and has dipped to test 4700 with 5000 still a steely resistance zone. NSE20 also face constricted BB and has broken lower.
Mpesa bank price has also stalled with 13 level rejecting advance.
Is it that time for the discounts season?
Is cbk going to hike cbr?
Is KES about to take it in the chin vs $?
Is the tbill rate heading past 11% and higher?
Is inflation going to vault past 10%
Is KE GDP really going to print 4.5% - forget those rosy estimates of plus 5%?
The eurobond trump card ensures $ demand will be high to repay the $ bond interest. If GDP is shrinking where will the KES needed to buy the $ for repayments come from in 2014/2015? If commercial oil flow delays more KES weakness is expected.
KE Macroecon not rosy in 2014/2015 time frame. For short term outlook I expect KES to continue sliding, tbill rates to head up as inflation climbs forcing cbk to hike cbr at some point. Bad for an econ on slow down, but a necessity to firm KES.
Equities don't rally in austerity period and austerity is here though quietly!? Consumer dependent counters to head south in process as consumers cut back spending. Have you been spending less this year or planning to do so (both as a person or biz)? That means less KES movement in the econ (econ slump).
IMO I don't see any upside above 5000 at NSE20. Easier to test 4400 than race above 5k level. Look out for discounts, cheap rights issues etc. Trust WB to always hype things and then suddenly retract like they couldn't see it coming. Bure kabisa.
World Bank cuts Kenya growth forecast for 2014
Quote:The World Bank said Kenya's economy will expand 4.7 percent this year, shaving 0.5 percentage points from its previous estimate six months ago. The bank projects growth to remain the same in 2015. Kwani WB ni wazazi wako? They do not owe you anything. It's an estimate. It can change. Mpeketoni, Travel Advisories, lack of rain, KES 1.4bn paid to Anglo-leasing, etc. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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Coop,kengen & E A cables demand forced prices to hike but left kplc for us; @hisah isn't kengen not touchable at current price ? Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@vvs - That response is uncalled for "kwani ni wazazi wako?' Stick to the issue. My opinion was WB & its sister IMF tend to always over estimate year in year out when conducting economic analysis of any country. Since westgate, agri and industrial slump in Q4 2014, it was evident their lofty GDP estimate (as well as gok) was an over estimate just to charge the eurobond issue. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Boris Boyka wrote:Coop,kengen & E A cables demand forced prices to hike but left kplc for us; @hisah isn't kengen not touchable at current price ? Still a buyers market. Bulls dont have legs.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:@vvs - That response is uncalled for "kwani ni wazazi wako?' Stick to the issue.
My opinion was WB & its sister IMF tend to always over estimate year in year out when conducting economic analysis of any country. Since westgate, agri and industrial slump in Q4 2014, it was evident their lofty GDP estimate (as well as gok) was an over estimate just to charge the eurobond issue. Regrettable indeed. Problem of posting when high  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:@vvs - That response is uncalled for "kwani ni wazazi wako?' Stick to the issue.
My opinion was WB & its sister IMF tend to always over estimate year in year out when conducting economic analysis of any country. Since westgate, agri and industrial slump in Q4 2014, it was evident their lofty GDP estimate (as well as gok) was an over estimate just to charge the eurobond issue. Regrettable indeed. Problem of posting when high I think it was on a light note with a smile only that facial expressions aren't available. @hisah @sp thropic sometimes when in company of friends such "hard" but humorous words complement discussions healthy. sorry if am wrong on this. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:@vvs - That response is uncalled for "kwani ni wazazi wako?' Stick to the issue.
My opinion was WB & its sister IMF tend to always over estimate year in year out when conducting economic analysis of any country. Since westgate, agri and industrial slump in Q4 2014, it was evident their lofty GDP estimate (as well as gok) was an over estimate just to charge the eurobond issue.  I meant it in a 'hilarious' manner... What I mean is they owe us nothing. When they conduct these 'surveys' or 'assessments' there are a lot of variables. And we do not pay for it so there are no refunds. The after-effects of Westgate [& subsequent mayhem] cannot be accurately forecast due to 'lag' ... When the GFC hit, Kenya thought it had escaped but we were hit in 2009 extending into 2010. The long-term effects of PEV were felt later in the year & then with poor harvests leading into 2009. We may still have IDPs. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Boris Boyka wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:@vvs - That response is uncalled for "kwani ni wazazi wako?' Stick to the issue.
My opinion was WB & its sister IMF tend to always over estimate year in year out when conducting economic analysis of any country. Since westgate, agri and industrial slump in Q4 2014, it was evident their lofty GDP estimate (as well as gok) was an over estimate just to charge the eurobond issue. Regrettable indeed. Problem of posting when high I think it was on a light note with a smile only that facial expressions aren't available. @hisah @sp thropic sometimes when in company of friends such "hard" but humorous words complement discussions healthy. sorry if am wrong on this. @Boris has it right  ... At the end of the day we have to make our own beds. Our mothers may love us but not the ayah/nanny/maid! As someone wise once said... Trust but verify. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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