When mpesa bank bollinger bands (BB) constrict, it's that time to pay close attention to the market. Constricted BB mean a breakout (up/down move) is coming. Mpesa bank's heavy index weight influences the overall market direction.
NSE20 climb stalled in Nov 2013 and has dipped to test 4700 with 5000 still a steely resistance zone. NSE20 also face constricted BB and has broken lower.
Mpesa bank price has also stalled with 13 level rejecting advance.
Is it that time for the discounts season?
Is cbk going to hike cbr?
Is KES about to take it in the chin vs $?
Is the tbill rate heading past 11% and higher?
Is inflation going to vault past 10%
Is KE GDP really going to print 4.5% - forget those rosy estimates of plus 5%?
The eurobond trump card ensures $ demand will be high to repay the $ bond interest. If GDP is shrinking where will the KES needed to buy the $ for repayments come from in 2014/2015? If commercial oil flow delays more KES weakness is expected.
KE Macroecon not rosy in 2014/2015 time frame. For short term outlook I expect KES to continue sliding, tbill rates to head up as inflation climbs forcing cbk to hike cbr at some point. Bad for an econ on slow down, but a necessity to firm KES.
Equities don't rally in austerity period and austerity is here though quietly!? Consumer dependent counters to head south in process as consumers cut back spending. Have you been spending less this year or planning to do so (both as a person or biz)? That means less KES movement in the econ (econ slump).
IMO I don't see any upside above 5000 at NSE20. Easier to test 4400 than race above 5k level. Look out for discounts, cheap rights issues etc.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!